Dry, hot summers with temperatures of about 30C are set to become the norm in Scotland, researchers suggest.
Analysis of UK climate projections by Met Office experts at the Edinburgh and Oxford universities indicate a substantial increase in the likelihood of Scottish summers being like the mid-year heatwave of 2018.
The country experienced unusually hot conditions that summer, with a near-record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton, in Renfrewshire.
The 32.9C recorded in August 2003, at Greycrook in the Borders, is Scotland’s highest ever official temperature.
Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut substantially, the researchers said it is possible every summer may be as hot as 2018 towards the end of the century.
Human influences had made the heatwave more likely, experts said, adding that their findings indicate the need to start sustainable long-term planning now to deal with heatwaves in Scotland induced by climate change.
Lead researcher Professor Simon Tett, of the University of Edinburgh’s school of geosciences, said: “Despite its cool climate, Scotland must start to prepare now for the impact of high-temperature extremes.
“The bottom line is that heatwaves have become more likely because of human-induced climate change.”
The study, funded by ClimateXchange, was published online by IOPscience.
