The Scottish government has forecast that up to 250,000 people could be admitted to hospital if the coronavirus outbreak mushrooms into a full-scale epidemic.
Caroline Calderwood, Scotland’s chief medical officer, said that under the worst-case scenario between 50% and 80% of Scotland’s population would catch the virus over a number of months, with 20% of those likely to become ill.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
- Frequently wash their hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or warm water and soap
- Cover their mouth and nose with a flexed elbow or tissue when sneezing or coughing
- Avoid close contact with anyone who has a fever or cough
- Seek early medical help if they have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, and share their travel history with healthcare providers
- Avoid direct, unprotected contact with live animals and surfaces in contact with animals when visiting live markets in affected areas
- Avoid eating raw or undercooked animal products and exercise care when handling raw meat, milk or animal organs to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods.
Despite a surge in sales of face masks in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak, experts are divided over whether they can prevent transmission and infection. There is some evidence to suggest that masks can help prevent hand-to-mouth transmissions, given the large number of times people touch their faces. The consensus appears to be that wearing a mask can limit – but not eliminate – the risks, provided it is used correctly.
Scotland’s first case came to light on Sunday, involving a patient who had recently travelled home to Tayside from northern Italy. Few details have been released but it is known that the patient was taken to hospital as a precautionary measure and is not seriously ill.
The NHS is following up on the patient’s contacts to track down anyone else potentially infected.
At a media briefing after a UK-wide Cobra resilience meeting chaired by Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon said ministers and the NHS were drafting plans to cope with the significant impact on beds, including extra funding for the NHS.
The first minister said there were no plans to build temporary wards or hospitals at this stage. Instead, the NHS would “flex” its existing resources, which are limited to just over 13,400 acute beds in Scotland.
Calderwood said: “The evidence we have is that we might expect up to 80% of the population to have coronavirus at some point, although we will obviously have people recovered and people who have antibodies and would be completely well.
“The peak we’re talking about we might expect to be over a three-week period, with a delay [until it peaks] of two to three months.”
She said the same rates of infection would apply across the UK if the epidemic took hold but said this was a hypothetical scenario, adding: “This might not happen.”
She said the current strategy appeared to be working: “At the moment, there is good evidence that we have contained the virus.” The NHS was well equipped and “we have time to plan.”
Sturgeon said it was important to be frank with the public, and said it was essential that the NHS and government were planning for the worst case scenario.
“These are big numbers but I think it’s really important to put them into context [and] say to the public that they shouldn’t be cause for panic or undue concern,” she said.
“Firstly these are modelled assumptions; they’re based on data coming from other countries, China in particular. They’re reasonable worst case scenarios but they aren’t necessarily what will come to pass. But I think it should be reassuring to the public to know that governments are planning on the basis of what might be a worse case scenario.”
Sturgeon said the UK and devolved governments would be publishing a detailed planning paper on Tuesday that would provide details of the four levels of response for different scales of outbreak.
At the moment, the UK is in the containment phase and there were no plans at present to delay the Scotland v France Six Nations rugby match at Murrayfield this week, or to delay the Cop26 climate talks scheduled for Glasgow in November.
