With appropriate level of apology to the good people of Norway, a Saturday evening scoreless draw with Latvia raised smiles in Scotland. As the Tartan Army glance towards March and World Cup play-offs – three teams from 12 will advance to Qatar – it is hardly being disrespectful to suggest the prospect of Grant Hanley squaring up to Erling Haaland is far from appealing.
With the World Cup as a prize, Denmark’s Christian Eriksen dismantled the Republic of Ireland in 2017. Haaland would surely place similar stock in an appearance on international football’s greatest stage. Instead, barring a Turkey stumble in Montenegro on Tuesday, Scotland will be spared one of the most feared forwards in Europe.
The Norway scenario is significant because it is the latest example of football’s great unmeasurable in relation to Scotland. Things seem to be falling perfectly for Steve Clarke. Scotland’s manager will rightly raise an eyebrow at any sense of good fortune consistently favouring his team – Clarke’s performance has in itself been fantastic – but it is no affront to point out that the best in this particular business carry a level of luck.
Progression to Euro 2020 was via a penalty shootout. The key Scottish moment in this World Cup campaign was a 94th-minute Scott McTominay winner against Israel. Lyndon Dykes nudged the Scots past the Faroe Islands with just four minutes to spare.
The point here is not that Scotland should thank the football gods that they are heading to a play-off. Indeed, they are seven points clear of third-place Israel in Group F with one game to spare. Rather, there should be legitimate celebration of this achievement when Denmark visit Hampden Park on Monday.
Scotland spent so many years as an international irrelevance, whereby breaks never fell their way and supporters grew disillusioned in their thousands, that they must embrace these heady days while they last. Just four years ago a Scotland manager in the shape of Gordon Strachan was reduced to blaming genetics as yet another qualifying bid crashed and burned. Try telling that to 5ft 7in Billy Gilmour in 2021.
1. There are three qualifying spots at Qatar 2022, to be played for by 12 teams: 10 group runners-up plus the two highest ranked winners of Nations League groups that have not qualified otherwise. Portugal, Italy, Poland, Scotland, Russia, Sweden and North Macedonia have qualified as runners-up.
Either Wales or the Czech Republic will be runners-up in Group E, but whoever is not will get a spot via the Nations League route. Austria are guaranteed a spot via the Nations League route.
2. The six group runners-up with the best records, excluding games against the bottom side in six-team groups, will be seeded.
Portugal, Scotland, Italy and Russia will be seeded. Wales, who need to draw with Belgium to be sure of being runners-up, would be seeded if they were to win, though a draw would suffice unless Turkey win by four goals in Montenegro, or Turkey win by three and Norway beat the Netherlands by four.
3. The seeded teams will play at home in the one-off play-off semi-finals, on 24-25 March. The draw on 26 November will determine which semi-finals will provide the home team in the one-off finals, on 28-29 March.
The present incumbent has long since earned the right to speak and behave as he pleases. Clarke broke the mould by taking Scotland to a major finals for the first time since 1998. Professional responsibility means it would be folly for the 58-year-old to publicly disregard the Denmark clash. Yet it has been more than a little dispiriting to listen to sudden Scottish focus on whether a seeding, and home advantage, can be gleaned by virtue of at least a point from their closing group fixture.
Hampden should stage a party, an appreciation of this team’s sterling efforts in finishing higher than their pot status, rather than provide an environment whereby people are stuck in front of phone screens, calculating play-off permutations.
There is already a prevailing sense that not claiming a seeding spot would somehow represent disappointment, which is preposterous given where Scotland have emerged from. If not seeded – and this is a moveable feast – as things stand, Scotland could travel to face Wales, Poland, Croatia, Sweden, Switzerland or Serbia.
Turkey, Finland and Macedonia join the Scots in the unseeded bracket for now, with Austria and the Czech Republic making up the numbers through the Nations League. Of course, the case can readily be made that Clarke would rather avoid a trip to any of the initial sextet but the task would hardly be insurmountable. In many respects, the set-up of Clarke’s team suits one-off away ties. In Glasgow, pressure and expectation fall on Scotland.
The key attribute of this Scotland squad is its experience amid youthfulness. John McGinn has amassed 41 caps at the age of 27; Callum McGregor has 40 at 28, McTominay 28 at 24; Kieran Tierney and Andy Robertson, 24 and 27 respectively, have played 29 and 54 times for their country. Gilmour has become a first pick at 20, with Nathan Patterson on the verge of the same standing at the same age. The best international teams grow with a solid core.
Clarke’s key Denmark dilemma relates to his batch of players who would incur a suspension for the play-off semi-final if booked. McTominay, who is among them, will definitely not feature after failure to recover from a throat infection. A clearly unfair rule states the two caution limit must carry forward, even from groups including more matches than others.
Nonetheless, Scotland are not the only team with this issue. There is also no reason that Denmark will be especially feisty opposition. The colour, the noise, the vibrancy should come from the stands. For a watching generation, these are the very best of times.
