First hurdles are there to be cleared in confident fashion, and that is precisely what Scotland should do against Tonga on Saturday afternoon before confronting tougher challenges against Australia, South Africa and Japan. But this opening Autumn Nations Series match at Murrayfield represents a significant risk, nonetheless, for Gregor Townsend’s team, due to their own depleted resources and the Tongans’ physical threat.
As the game is being played outside the international window, Townsend is without his England- and France-based players, which, combined with injuries, deprives him of at least half a dozen players who would normally be in his starting lineup. In the absence of Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Duhan van der Merwe, Chris Harris, Rory Sutherland and Jonny Gray, Townsend needs to hope that his new caps – four will start with another four on the bench – get up to speed quickly.
The Edinburgh prop Pierre Schoeman and Glasgow centre Sione Tuipulotu appear sure to do so, with Schoeman in particular having been evidently ready for Test rugby for some time. The Warriors winger Rufus McLean is one of those rare counterattackers who can conjure up something out of nothing, and the Edinburgh lock Jamie Hodgson would have been capped by now but for the Covid-enforced cancellation of Scotland’s summer Tests against Georgia and Romania.
But while a strong case can be made for the inclusion of each of those four individuals, the real concern is whether this inexperienced line-up as a whole can find its feet at once. Should things go awry, there is a distinct lack of seasoned battlers on the bench, where a six-two split includes the uncapped Glasgow half-backs Jamie Dobie and Ross Thompson.
Much will depend on how smoothly Blair Kinghorn slots into his new berth at stand-off. Normally a full-back with Edinburgh and a winger with the national team, Kinghorn has a fair amount of Russell’s inventiveness but he has yet to learn the kind of judicious decision-making that is second nature to a time-served fly-half, so the Tongans will aim to unsettle him very early.
The visitors have had their own problems and have travelled without head coach Toutai Kefu as he continues to recover from a serious assault at his home in Australia. However, they have been able to select their French-based players, and also have new Glasgow signing Walter Fifita – a formidable 6ft 5in presence on the wing –in their ranks.
What is more, their return to Scotland will provide them with happy memories of a celebrated victory back in 2012, when a 21-15 win at Pittodrie spelled an end to Andy Robinson’s tenure as the home team’s head coach. There is no such threat to Townsend, who has considerable credit in the bank after steering the team to memorable victories at Twickenham and the Stade de France in last season’s Six Nations, but he is aware that a similar result would derail the progress of the past year and more – and he has used that 2012 match as a history lesson for his team in the build-up to this game.
“Tonga will probably view that game as a massive high in the history of them as a rugby team,” he said. “They’re a hugely motivated team - they’re going to be tough opponents. I don’t think there’s a team in world rugby or a group of people who tackle harder than the Tongans.”
Darcy Graham; Kyle Steyn, Sione Tuipulotu, Sam Johnson, Rufus McLean; Blair Kinghorn, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Jamie Hodgson, Rob Harley, Jamie Ritchie, Hamish Watson, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Stuart McInally, Jamie Bhatti, Oli Kebble, Marshall Sykes, Luke Crosbie, Nick Haining, Jamie Dobie, Ross Thompson.
Scrum-half Ali Price, named co-captain with blindside flanker Jamie Ritchie, voiced similar sentiments yesterday. “People can feel like it’s a foregone conclusion and we just have to turn up, but they’re a very competitive team with some brilliant individuals who can create something out of nothing,” he said. “They’re physical, strong runners, so we need to put in a professional performance.”
That should see Scotland home with something to spare but a victory garnished by the odd flamboyant touch from Kinghorn or McLean would be preferable preparation for next Sunday’s Wallabies Test.
There will be a minute’s silence before the game in memory of the former Scotland and Lions forward Sandy Carmichael, who died this week aged 77.
