When Paul O’Connell says he will face the strongest Scotland team he has encountered as a player or coach on Sunday, in one sense it does not mean much. Ireland have won 17 of the 21 fixtures between the sides in the Six Nations era and only one of the defeats was by more than a score, but the observation of the former Lions captain reflects how the gap between the sides has narrowed to the point where it is not the visitors to Murrayfield who are the favourites on Sunday.
Scotland should be going for the triple crown, having followed up their victory at Twickenham in the opening round by taking a 14-point first-half lead at home to Wales. They were accused of getting ahead of themselves as the Welsh rallied, but the turning point was Zander Fagerson’s red card 26 minutes from the end that left them vulnerable to the opportunism of their opponents.
The week before, Ireland had lost to Wales having had Peter O’Mahony sent off in the opening quarter but led for long enough to be frustrated by the outcome. They were edged out by France a week later in their worst start to a Six Nations campaign and a romp in Rome did not provide redemption.
Scotland have a more refined attacking game than Ireland and have hardened up at forward since the one-sided World Cup match between the sides in Yokohama in 2019, but one significant difference remains. Ireland have a core of players versed in the art of winning when they are expected to, the door Gregor Townsend’s players need to pass through to turn from one-off performers to contenders: defeat would mean Twickenham becomes another footnote.
“You sometimes think if a coach is into attack, his teams won’t have a physical edge, but that was not the case when Gregor coached Glasgow nor is it with Scotland now,” said O’Connell, the Ireland forwards coach. “Much of the good attack in the autumn and in this tournament has come from Scotland, and they are very, very physical as well. I think it is the best Scotland team I have gone up against. They are in a very good place.”
Scotland sat out the last round because of an outbreak of Covid-19 in the France squad so it is a month since their players who are based at home took the field. Townsend has made four changes from the side that lost to Wales, with Sean Maitland and Sam Johnson returning behind, while WP Nel replaces the suspended Fagerson in the front row and James Ritchie returns from injury to displace Blade Thomson.
Andy Farrell has made three changes to his Ireland side from Rome, with Keith Earls, Cian Healy and Rob Herring returning, but the fit-again scrum-half Conor Murray makes only the bench as Jamison Gibson-Park continues to partner Johnny Sexton and inject a dose of unpredictability into a structured side.
“We are well aware of the threats posed by an experienced Ireland squad and the players have prepared for a contest that will require one of their best performances,” said Townsend. “Every moment will count and we will have to be there for the full 80 minutes.”
Scotland should have had at least a draw in Dublin in last year’s Six Nations and started well there in the Autumn Nations Cup before being derailed by a yellow card. Assuming Wales defeat Italy in Rome, only the winner of the postponed match in Paris will be able to catch them.
That is why this weekend is significant for Scotland, a team that need to find ways of winning matches rather than losing them. When Hogg lost the ball over the line in Dublin last year, it seemed to sum up the side, backing away when opportunity knocked. Time to deliver.
