Nicola Sturgeon has warned MSPs she may have to introduce full lockdown measures across Scotland in the coming days to contain the faster-spreading Covid variant, which has already led to Wales bringing forward a countrywide lockdown from last Sunday and Northern Ireland announcing a six-week lockdown from Boxing Day.
It came as the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, said it seemed “inevitable” that further national restrictions would be needed, adding that if scientists called for such measures in England he would back the government in bringing them in.
Ministers are reportedly preparing to announce the extension of tier 4 in England – the new, quasi-lockdown category of restrictions – to new areas, possibly from Boxing Day.
Tier 4 already covers London and adjoining counties in the south-east, but it could be extended to other areas where cases are rising sharply. Ministers have also reportedly been considering moving some tier 2 areas into tier 3, and even the possibility of a third England-wide lockdown in the new year.
The last formal review of tier allocations took place last week. Officially they are meant to be reviewed every fortnight, but on Saturday, after being presented with fresh evidence about the extent to which the new variant of coronavirus is spreading much more quickly, Boris Johnson imposed the new tier 4 rules almost immediately. Since then new case numbers in England have continued to soar.
Asked about reports that ministers plan to extend tier 4 from Boxing Day, the Department of Health and Social Care said it would not comment on leaks.
Sturgeon used her weekly coronavirus statement to the Scottish parliament to tighten level 4 measures – the strictest of Scotland’s five-tier system of Covid controls and which all of mainland Scotland will enter from 26 December.
She said tough restrictions were “essential” to suppress the new variant of coronavirus as she revealed it was likely to be present in 14% of Scottish cases, according to the latest analysis.
From Boxing Day, the “strong advice” for those living under level 4 is to stay local and at home as much as possible. The Scottish government will consider whether to place that advice in law.
Sturgeon said: “Given the severity of the situation we face and the need to limit interactions as much as possible, we intend to define essential retail more narrowly than we have done recently.” As a result, homeware stores and garden centres will close under level 4.
Starmer echoed Sturgeon’s concerns about the rise in cases in a letter to Boris Johnson, calling for any Sage (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) recommendations on restrictions to be published without delay, accompanied by a plan for rolling out vaccines “as quickly as possible”.
He told the prime minister “sadly, it does now seem inevitable that further national restrictions will be necessary”, adding that Labour would back plans to recall parliament should a vote be required.
Starmer pointed out that Johnson had rejected a Sage proposal to introduce a short circuit breaker lockdown on 21 September, only to introduce full lockdown at the start of November. “That decision to delay led to a longer, deeper lockdown that caused further damage to the economy. We cannot make the same mistake again.”
Responding to Sturgeon’s statement, the Scottish Conservatives Holyrood leader, Ruth Davidson, raised concerns from working parents over the delayed return of schools and nurseries. Sturgeon announced a staggered return to education on Saturday, with online learning starting for most pupils from 11 January and an expected return to the classroom from 18 January.
The first minister underlined in Tuesday’s statement that “we will require to keep this under review”, telling Davidson that scientists were still trying to understand the nature of the new variant, including whether it was more easily transmitted to young people.
Sturgeon has told MSPs the weekly ONS Covid infection survey was using PCR testing on a random sample of people in Scotland, looking for a proxy marker known as the “S-Gene dropout” to track the spread of the variant.
“Analysis suggests that in week beginning 9 December around 14% of positive cases in Scotland already had this S-Gene dropout. This compares with just 5% at the end of November. It is not unreasonable to assume that the proportion may be higher now.”
She said the rapid spread in London and south-east England served as a warning of what Scotland would face if it did not take firm action to suppress the virus.
“We have a real concern that, without significant counter-measures, we could be facing another period of exponential growth as we enter the new year. That would mean many more people catching Covid and, even without this new strain causing more severe illness, that would result in many more people needing hospital and intensive care. And that would put an enormous strain on the NHS and lead to much more loss of life.”
