U.S. officials have been holding sensitive conversations with a range of countries about establishing an international force to deploy to Gaza and intend to present a plan in the next few weeks, three sources intimately involved in that process tell Axios.
Why it matters: The breakdown in the ceasefire on Tuesday underscored just how fragile the peace is. But the International Stabilization Force (ISF) envisioned in President Trump's plan raises politically explosive questions for Israel, Hamas and the countries considering sending troops.
- U.S. Central Command is taking the lead in drafting a plan for the force, a U.S. official said. It involves a new Palestinian police force — to be trained and vetted by the U.S., Egypt, and Jordan — alongside troops from Arab and Muslim countries.
- Countries including Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Turkey have shown willingness to contribute troops, the sources said. Others raised concerns with the U.S., given the chaotic security situation in Gaza.
- "If we don't have reliable security and governance in Gaza that the Israelis agree to, we will get stuck in a situation where Israel is attacking all the time," one source involved in planning said.
Breaking it down: Under Trump's 20-point plan, the deployment of the ISF is a condition for Israel's further withdrawal from the roughly 50% of Gaza's territory it still holds. The force is expected to focus on securing Gaza's borders with Israel and Egypt and preventing arms smuggling.
- But that all depends on Hamas agreeing to give up its authority and at least some of its weapons.
- Some on the right in Israel and the U.S. argue the group will never do so voluntarily, so Israel will inevitably have to resume the war. The massive and deadly Israeli airstrikes in response to an alleged Hamas attack in Rafah on Tuesday made that appear all the more likely.
- U.S. officials are desperate to avoid a resumption of the war, and see the ISF as a key part of the puzzle — but not one that can be rushed. "It is better to move slow and get it right because we are not gonna have a second chance," a senior U.S. official told Axios.
Behind the scenes: The ISF was a key topic of discussion in the meetings Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Vice President Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had during their recent visits to Israel, the sources said.
- Kushner and Witkoff held extensive consultations two weeks ago with a group of senior Israeli military officers to get their input.
- A senior Israeli official said the U.S. side presented its ideas about the size of the force, while the Israelis stressed that the size matters far less than its legitimacy with the local population and willingness to fight and kill if needed.
- "The Israelis are nervous and skeptical because they are not in control and they don't have the cards anymore. We told them, 'Let's create the right circumstances and see if Hamas is serious or not,'" a U.S. official said.
Friction point: Few countries are prepared to send their troops to fight Hamas or get caught in the crossfire between Hamas and rival groups, not to mention Hamas and Israel.
- Turkey is prepared to participate, but Israel opposes any Turkish military presence in Gaza. However, the U.S. wants Turkey involved, along with Qatar and Egypt, because it sees them as best able to get Hamas "to agree and to behave," according to a U.S. official.
- "The Turks were very helpful in getting the Gaza deal and Netanyahu's bashing Turkey has been very counterproductive," the U.S. official said.
- "We are aware of the Israeli concerns and are working to create something that can achieve stability and that both sides can find acceptable," the official added.
Zoom in: A primary goal right now is to get Hamas to agree to the ISF's deployment, according to a source who is deeply involved in the process.
- "If you are going into an environment where Hamas sees you as an occupying force, it will be hard. But if Hamas consents, it's a different situation," the source said.
- In such a scenario, the ISF wouldn't have to fight a war against Hamas, but only enforce the peace and fight elements that try to interfere.
State of play: U.S. and Israeli officials say that, as expected, Hamas is using the ceasefire to reconstitute and restore its grip on Gaza.
- But the officials added that the current situation on the ground — with the border with Egypt blocked and Israel still controlling half of Gaza — limits Hamas' ability to rearm and rebuild.
- "Hamas has a pretty low glass ceiling now," a senior U.S. official said.
- U.S. and Israeli officials also contend that Hamas is at its weakest point in almost 20 years and is under extreme pressure from Arab and Muslim countries to relinquish its power, disarm and cooperate with the Trump peace plan.
- Egypt, Qatar and Turkey told the U.S. that Hamas could agree to the deployment of the ISF, a U.S. official said. Based on discussions with Hamas, the mediators think the group would agree to the ISF monitoring the borders and possibly conducting missions inside Gaza.
Yes, but: The official said a key issue is that Hamas needs to believe its fighters will truly receive amnesty if it agrees to move forward, rather than being hunted down the next day by the ISF or its Palestinian enemies.
- Trump's advisers think it's important to "not give Hamas an excuse not to do it," though they acknowledge the group might not agree, one U.S. official said.
- In such a scenario, the ISF would deploy first to the southern part of Gaza where Hamas isn't in control to allow a safe zone for rebuilding, the official added.
What's next: U.S. officials say they've made significant progress in recent days in drafting a UN Security Council resolution that would support the ISF and be used as a legal mandate to allow countries to contribute troops.
- At the same time, the resolution will not turn the ISF into a UN peacekeeping force and the U.S. will be able to oversee, monitor and influence its operations, sources with knowledge of the process said.
- The sources said key decisions about the construction of the ISF will be made in the next few days, and presented to Israel and the potential participants in the coming weeks.
- One official involved said they're trying to learn from the failures of past peacekeeping efforts in places like Lebanon and Afghanistan.
What to watch: "There is a strong interest in countries in the region to be involved in the ISF. Nobody rejected it and they all wait to see the final design," a U.S. official said.
- "Most people who know the history of this conflict don't give it a large chance for success. You have to be nuts not to be skeptical," another source involved in the plans conceded. "But at the same time, no one wants to get on the wrong side of Donald Trump."
