President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson plan to hold a Monday evening tele-rally to boost a Republican candidate in a high-stakes Tennessee special congressional election.
Why it matters: The Trump-Johnson dual rally underscores the emphasis Republicans are placing on the Dec. 2 election.
- Johnson will hold several campaign events in the Nashville-area district earlier that day.
- Trump won Tennessee's 7th District by 22 points, so Republicans are heavily favored. But the race is closer than expected.
- A new Emerson College poll shows Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by only 2 percentage points.
The big picture: Should Republicans lose — or win narrowly — it would further expectations that the party is heading toward a perilous midterm election.
- Trump and his political operation have invested heavily in the contest.
- MAGA Inc., the principal Trump-aligned super PAC, has spent more than $1.5 million in the race.
Zoom in: Trump hosted a separate tele-rally boosting Van Epps earlier this month.
- Two other pro-Van Epps groups — Conservatives for American Excellence and Club for Growth Action — have spent six-figures apiece.
- The Republican National Committee has launched a get-out-the-vote program.
But Democrats — sensing opportunity following overwhelming wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races and better-than-expected showings in several special congressional elections — are also pouring in money.
- Two liberal groups — House Majority PAC and Your Community PAC — have combined to spend around $1 million.
- Democrats have attacked Van Epps for opposing the release of documents related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, among other things.
Complicating the race for Republicans is the peculiar timing of the special election, which follows the long Thanksgiving weekend.
- That means there could be lower-than-usual turnout.
- It could benefit Democrats, who have been motivated to turn out this year.
Yes, but: Republicans have been feeling more confident, as Trump has ramped up his engagement and GOP resources have flowed in.
- Republicans outperformed Democrats 46 to 40% in early and absentee voting, according to a memo released Friday morning by the Tennessee-based Republican consulting firm Baker Group Strategies.
Go deeper:
- Democrats inject "Epstein files" into special election that's scaring GOP
- DNC hits the ground for Tenn. state Rep. Aftyn Behn's House campaign
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.
