New modelling has suggested that the number of infections and deaths in Wales from coronavirus this summer is expected to be smaller than first predicted.
Using the most recent data, scientists have slashed their projections for the scale of the third wave and now expect 230 deaths in the three months from June to August in a reasonable worst-case scenario.
The benefits of vaccination are now thought to be better than previously estimated, while concerns over the impact of the Delta variant have eased as well. Time table for lifting of restrictions in Wales here.
Case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths are now expected to be much lower than those forecast by Swansea University modellers just under three weeks ago.
In late June they predicted that, in the worst case scenario, daily figures would peak at 7,700 cases, 220 hospital admissions and 70 deaths in late July into August.
Read more: Several people 'seriously ill' in hospital with Covid after being double jabbed
Those models would have seen the infection peak being almost three times higher than that seen at the height of last December’s second wave.
But the latest data, which has been combined with analysis from a separate study by Warwick University, is showing a better picture.
As a result, one reasonable worst scenario (RWS) for Wales is now estimated to produce daily peaks of around 5,000 new coronavirus cases, 90 hospital admissions and 30 deaths at the end of July.
Experts on the Welsh Government’s Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) believe there is cause for even greater optimism, given the way the latest Covid data is panning out.
In a report, they said: “The most pessimistic scenarios for hospital admissions and deaths that were included in the previous modelling are looking increasingly unlikely.
“Overall there is still a risk of a wave in hospital admissions and deaths, especially as Wales is seeing very rapid growth in cases, but it looks like the vaccination programme is currently holding up in the race with the Delta variant."
TAC's experts therefore suggest the Welsh reasonable worst case scenario should be further downgraded, giving daily peaks of around 1,300 new infections, 20 hospital admissions and 10 deaths.
In the three months from June 1 to August 30, this equates to around 67,500 infections, 1,000 hospital admissions and 230 deaths.
The updated prediction for the number of deaths in this period is a tenth of the original RWC projection.
The modelling assumes some relaxation of restrictions this summer, and that vaccine immunity will not fade in the period assessed.
It doesn’t allow for the potential emergence of new Covid variants, which becomes more likely as infection numbers rise.
The TAC report concluded: “By triangulating actual data and comparing the modelled scenarios, we may surmise that it is likely that Wales is not heading for a bigger wave in hospital admissions and deaths than previous waves, despite the very rapid increase in cases.”
The Wales Coronavirus Control Plan that sets out the plans to lift most restrictions in Wales by August 7 says: "Recent data indicates the number of people with COVID-19 in Wales who are hospitalised has decreased from around 10% in December 2020 – before the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines – to 2.8% on 26 June 2021.
"It also shows a large reduction in the ratio of deaths to cases following the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines, from 3.5% in December 2020 to 0.5% on 26 June 2021, mostly as a result of high levels of the over-70s being double-vaccinated.
"The success of the vaccination campaign, coupled with this emergingdata, gives us confidence that the link between infections, serious illnessesrequiring hospitalisation and deaths has been weakened."
To get the latest email updates from WalesOnline click here.
