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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Toby Helm

Scent of victory for Tories revives leadership hopes for Labour frontbenchers

For once yesterday, the Sunday papers resisted diving into more Labour leadership speculation. And what relief that brings. Even the most imaginative of us political hacks cannot quite get off on the idea of Harriet putting in the phone lines just yet, a la Michael Portillo.

But the story of Labour's (so far) very low level succession manoeuvrings will certainly not go away. In fact it will return very soon, I predict, and with more substance on which to hang the headlines. Here's why.

This weekend – despite their lead in the polls – a new fear is gripping the Conservative party (see Fraser Nelson in the News of the World).

The worry is that David Cameron, although set fair for No 10 next spring, has a fight on his hands if he is to stay there for more than one term.

"How do we win in 2015?" is the question the strangely paranoid Tories are now asking themselves.

Gordon Brown's misery over the economy is good for them in a short-term sense, but overall it is bad.

The recession – it is now clear to everyone – could endure for many years, meaning Tory cuts in services, higher taxes, general doom and gloom – and none of the feelgood factor that their fresh young leader is supposed to engender.

So if you are an Ed Balls, a Harriet Harman or a Miliband brother, economic bad times have a big silver lining. In just six years they all know they could be prime minister.

Gone is the sense that the Tories will inevitably be in "for a decade" or "a generation" with Labour MPs languishing during their prime years in opposition. The crisis has changed perceptions of the political calendar. In many senses it is bad news for Cameron – and good for the Labour hopefuls who fancy their chances when Gordon goes. It has revived a good few ambitions and ambition makes for good leadership stories.

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