A team of climate scientists from the University of Newcastle has developed a new model that gives a four-month advance warning of tropical cyclones in the Pacific.
The model marks progress in this area of science, as current outlooks provide only one-month guidance before cyclone season starts.
Dr Andrew Magee - of the university's Centre for Water, Climate and Land - said it was "the first outlook of its kind that provides this extended range".
The first outlook will be released on Wednesday, four months ahead of the tropical cyclone season - which runs from November to April.
"For the Southwest Pacific region, tropical cyclones are devastating. They account for three quarters of natural disasters there. They cause significant impact, loss of life and massive damage beyond comprehension," he said.
The effects include extreme winds, storm surge, prolonged rain and flooding and harm to people, infrastructure and economies.
The model covers places including Fiji, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and other island nations. New Zealand is also in the model due to "the impacts associated with ex-tropical cyclones".
"It will enable decision makers and meteorological services in the Pacific to basically get a heads up and be informed about their potential risks for the coming season," Dr Magee said.
An elevated cyclone risk for these island nations will set in motion activities such as planning for adequate supplies and people to be where they're needed. Aid agencies and donor countries, too, will benefit from the early warnings.
The model draws on Dr Magee's research into the "relationship between ocean temperatures and atmospheric variability and how they impact where and when tropical cyclones form".
It considers variables such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The model projects what the coming season might look like - including the number of cyclones - using data from the last 50 seasons [since 1970].
Other meteorological services, such as those in Australia, New Zealand and Fiji, do have tropical cyclone outlooks. But they're different. They don't produce a "statistically-driven island-scale outlook".
The new model is tailored to individual islands and countries, "as opposed to lumping a heap of nations together".
This will enable "greater confidence" for the people.
The university team developed the outlook model with the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand.
The outlook is updated and free at tcoutlook.com.
