(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- In a neighborhood of Beirut where Sunni Muslims live and work next door to Shiite Hezbollah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs there’s little support for Saudi Arabia’s latest adventure in its proxy war against Iran.
Few believe the kingdom’s denial that it forced Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign in a televised address from Riyadh on Nov. 4. They're angry at what they consider a humiliation that made one of their own look like a Saudi puppet.
“We do not accept that a Sunni leader be treated in this manner,” Abdul-Rahman al-Fitran, 53, said at his store selling nuts and dates in Tareeq al-Jadidah, where Hariri's pictures hang from trees, lampposts and balconies. “We want him back to calm things down so we can go on with our lives.”
The worry among Lebanese is that they will become the victims of another Saudi foreign policy gone astray as the conflict in Yemen deteriorates and saber-rattling against Qatar looks increasingly like it’s going nowhere.
The speculation in Beirut – and indeed among some Arab officials – is that Riyadh broadsided Hariri with a demand to resign because he wouldn’t confront Iranian-backed Hezbollah. While Sunnis say they understand why Hezbollah and Iran are seen as a threat, there’s more resentment than support among the very people the Saudis may have been relying on to rally to their side.
“Short term, the crisis has not played out as PR for the Saudis with the Sunnis as they might have hoped,” said Paul Salem, senior vice president at the Middle East Institute in Washington. The Saudis are “playing a bigger game, which is containing Iran,” he said.
The kingdom was always known for its quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy until Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began cementing his power last year. The 32-year-old has adopted an aggressive agenda focused on rolling back Shiite-majority Iran's growing influence in the region. He has been emboldened by the U.S. administration under Donald Trump, who is threatening to isolate Iran with sanctions again.
Prince Mohammed launched a war more than two years ago on Shiite rebels in Yemen, where there’s now a major humanitarian crisis. In June, he led an economic embargo against Qatar partly over its close ties with Iran.
The conflicts appeared assertive and well-planned at first but there doesn't seem to be an endgame in any of them, according to Alef Advisory, a company advising on political risk.
“Beyond escalation with Iran, Saudi Arabia doesn't have a broader strategy,” it said in a report.
Hezbollah Threat
At the heart of the Lebanese intervention is Saudi displeasure over inaction against Hezbollah, whose militants have been fighting across the region and helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces to prevail over Saudi-backed Sunni groups in the civil war there. The Saudis are worried about the growing ability of Iran and Hezbollah to threaten it the way they threaten Israel from Lebanon.
Hariri, a Sunni who was born in Riyadh and whose father was assassinated in 2005, said he fled Lebanon because he feared for his life. In his first interview since his resignation, Hariri indicated that the war in Yemen is the reason for the crisis in Lebanon. The Shiite rebels have targeted Saudi towns and cities, including Riyadh, with missiles.
General Ashraf Rifi, a former Lebanese justice minister and a Hariri rival, has sided with Saudi Arabia and lashed out at Iran. A Sunni, he said on Twitter that Hezbollah's hands “are covered with blood and they will pay a very heavy price.”
Hariri, 47, said he would retract his resignation if Hezbollah takes a neutral stand on regional conflicts and insisted he is free to come and go as he pleases.
The drama took a new twist late Wednesday when French President Emmanuel Macron invited him to France. Hariri is expected to arrive in Paris in the “coming days” and stay “a few days” with the aim of returning to Lebanon, according to a French official. In an interview with France24 television, Macron stressed “we need a stable Lebanon, a strong Lebanon, and we need leaders who are free to make their choices.”
The crisis already has united people across the delicate sectarian power balance that has kept a lid on all-out conflict since the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun, a Maronite Christian, has said Hariri was detained by Saudi Arabia against his will and he is fighting to get him back. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah also called for Hariri's return.
Beirut's annual marathon on Sunday turned into a show of support for the prime minister with some participants carrying placards that said: “We're all with you.”
Bilal Ibrahim, 42, a Sunni co-owner of a computer repairs shop in the Hamra commercial district of Beirut, said Saudi Arabia “wanted us to stand against Hezbollah so there will be a civil war in the country. This will not happen.”
Al-Fitran, the other shopkeeper, said all the Saudis have done is undermine a Sunni leader.
“The perception is that Iran is loyal to its allies while Saudi Arabia changes like the weather,” he said. “In this latest episode, Hariri appeared weak while the Christian head of state and Hezbollah looked strong. We want Hariri back as a strong Sunni leader who won't be pushed around by the others.”
--With assistance from Alaa Shahine
To contact the author of this story: Donna Abu-Nasr in Beirut at dabunasr@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rodney Jefferson at r.jefferson@bloomberg.net.
©2017 Bloomberg L.P.
