This time last year Wasps and Munster had just finished ahead of the rest of the Premiership and Pro 12 respectively and had every reason to believe they could translate that success into silverware. Three weeks later they watched Exeter and Scarlets lift the two trophies instead, a harsh reminder of the sizeable difference between the marathon regular season and the play‑off sprint.
That crucially important lesson will not be lost on this year’s table toppers – Exeter, Glasgow and Leinster – all of whom appreciate that nine months of relentless toil can quite easily be undermined in the sunshine of May. The trick is to take a fresh mental guard and remember final league positions guarantee nothing beyond European qualification for next season.
On this occasion, as it happens, seven Premiership clubs will feature in the 2018-19 Champions Cup along with another seven from the Pro 14, with Ulster and Ospreys playing off for the 20th and final place in Belfast on 20 May. Gloucester were lucky that all the other European finalists in Bilbao have qualified via their respective leagues, ensuring their big final day defeat at Saracens and seventh place finish below Bath did not edge them out of the frame.
It also ensures that the question of which English club will finish the fastest domestically is entirely uncomplicated by European commitments. The Premiership’s distinctly average effort in this year’s Champions Cup means all four remaining sides can place all their end-of-season eggs in one basket and Saracens, in particular, already sense a marked contrast with last year.
Winning a second successive European crown undoubtedly weighed them down slightly in the play-offs when they fell victim to a pumped-up Exeter at Sandy Park just a week after beating Clermont in Edinburgh. This time their hooker Schalk Brits reckons they will be significantly fresher for the home semi-final against Wasps at lunchtime on Saturday week. “It is very difficult competing on both fronts,” said the South African, who is retiring at the end of the season. “It is quite nice all of our energy and our focus is on one competition, so we can have a break to get the bodies ready and keep fresh.
“We started really slow against Exeter last year; it was almost one step too far. Exeter played better than us and it is a great story for them but this year, hopefully, the story will be reversed. We are hungry, we want to win the Premiership again and the boys are looking forward to it. The club is getting momentum at the right time of the season.”
Assuming injuries to Liam Williams (shoulder) and Schalk Burger (hamstring) do not complicate things, Saracens will certainly hope to have too much for Wasps, who conceded 21 more tries and scored 10 fewer than their opponents over the course of the 22-game regular season. No one doubts Wasps’ ability to strike given sufficient space but Saracens have already beaten them convincingly twice during this campaign and, for all Danny Cipriani’s sorcery, Brits and friends are committed to finishing in style at Twickenham. “It would be an amazing way to finish my career and Chris Wyles’ career, not just for me, but for a lot of supporters and people working at Saracens,” Brits said.
Exeter are not a team who are fearful of anyone. Finishing on top of the pile for the first time with 85 points – the highest by anyone since 2014 – and conceding fewer than two tries per game are impressive stats and they have averaged over 40 points per game over the final four matches of their domestic campaign. Virtually all their key players are fit and their semi-final opponents Newcastle will not find Devon an easy place to conquer.
Their flanker Gary Graham is certainly not taking anything for granted – “If Donald Trump can become president of the United States of America then Newcastle can be Premiership champions” – and they will also be looking forward to restoring Vereniki Goneva and Sinoti Sinoti to the side beaten 39-22 by Wasps on Saturday.
While it is still likely to require something special to deny a Saracens v Exeter final, the odds should also be on Leinster and Glasgow making home advantage count and reaching the inaugural Pro 14 final. Should that happen Leinster will be confronted with three huge games over consecutive weekends, commencing with Saturday’s Champions’ Cup final against Racing, if they wish to complete a splendid double. Having lost to Scarlets in a major Dublin semi-final upset last year, they hardly need telling that play-off rugby can be strangely unpredictable.
Premiership semi-finals: 19 May Exeter v Newcastle, Saracens v Wasps.
Pro 14 semi-finals: 18 May Glasgow v Scarlets; 19 May Leinster v Munster.
European qualifiers 2018-19: Exeter, Saracens, Wasps, Newcastle Falcons, Leicester, Bath, Gloucester, Glasgow, Leinster, Scarlets, Munster, Edinburgh, Cardiff Blues, Montpellier, Racing 92, Toulon, Toulouse, Lyon, Castres. Plus winner of Ulster v Ospreys play-off in Belfast on 20 May)
