Despite little sleep and a neither-here-nor-there result in New Hampshire, Jeb Bush had a new spring in his step as he hit the campaign trail in South Carolina, a longtime family stronghold. “South Carolina is Jeb Country,” he tweeted with a picture of a solid turnout at his first event.
Later, in Mount Pleasant, near Charleston, the converted Catholic appeared with the traditional ash cross on his forehead signifying Ash Wednesday. The old Jeb – neatly captured in GQ’s “The 15 Saddest Moments of Jeb Bush’s Presidential Campaign” – had been replaced by a more self-confident speaker in a cosy hall with crackling fire and standing room only. No need here to say, “Please clap”.
He blasted New Hampshire winner Donald Trump for a vacuous foreign policy and declined to repeat the frontrunner’s foul language in front of children, explaining: “As president of the United States, I will not use vulgarity in public. We’re living in dangerous times. It is a not a sign of strength to talk big, to talk crazy, to talk loud. The next president of the United States needs to understand how the world works ... We’re not the world’s policemen – we’re the world’s leader.”
Bush has come to epitomise the establishment that Trump and Bernie Sanders are railing against, but he tried to show off his own radical credentials. He called for a six-year lobbying ban on officials in Congress who return “through the back door” to lobby their former colleagues. “There’s too much crony capitalism,” he said. “If I had to pick, my first instinct would be I’m on the side of the disrupters, I’m on the side of the Ubers against the cab companies that have their special deal because they pay basically to get a franchise with the city commissioner.”
The former Florida governor also insisted that he is pro-life and respects the supreme court’s ruling to uphold same-sex marriage. A baker would be wrong to refuse to sell a cake to a gay couple, Bush elaborated, but should be allowed to refuse to participate in the wedding.
To applause, he said: “Gay couples should not be discriminated against for jobs or for housing. I believe that, but so shouldn’t people of faith be excluded from acting on their conscience. I think we’re big enough as a country to be able to achieve both objectives.”
In a curious moment, Bush was asked about religious freedom and offered the fact he has not read the UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights, a touchstone of human liberty since 1948. “I start with the premise, but for us, who?” he said. “The UN declaration of human rights. I haven’t read it, I’m sure it’s got great language and is great. But the United States pulls back and does not consider this of value and worthy of support, it doesn’t matter what the UN says because, but for us, who? Who’s going to support religious minorities like the Yazidis, who are being wiped out, or Christians?”
Bush was again supported by local senator Lindsey Graham who, presumably with Trump and Ted Cruz in mind, told the gathering: “Let’s not go from incompetent, which is Barack Obama, to crazy, which is two of the people on our side ... We’re going to reset this race. Jeb did what he needed to do in New Hampshire. Now it’s up to us.”
The former Florida governor was watched by his uncle and godfather John Bush and his son Jeb Jr – “We call him Jeb 2.0.” Asked by the Guardian if brother George W would also be weighing in soon, Bush gave a one-word answer: “Yes.”
What kind of day has it been?
There are only three tickets out of Iowa, the conventional political wisdom states. As far as New Hampshire goes, however, it’s less a matter of tickets and more a matter of scrambling to secure your spot in the lifeboat before the ship cracks in two and you’re stuck freezing to death on a floating wooden door.
For those who couldn’t secure a life-saving seat, two members of the Republican field have officially tuned up their strings and begun playing “Nearer, My God, To Thee”: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Although the two couldn’t have been any less alike in background (political novice, political animal), politics (hard-right, right enough) or temperament (kills you with kindness; kills you), Fiorina and Christie were frozen out of the race by the same existential problem that the other Republican also-rans have: “The water is freezing and there aren’t enough boats... not enough by half.”
Brilliant debate performances couched in mendacity and tenacity (respectively) were enough to shine the light on them, but not enough to raise their candidacies beyond the bottom tier or do more than cause collateral damage to the establishment wing’s best shot at a nominee (again, respectively). In the end, both knew that it was time to chuck the rock into the sea and be done with it.
We’ll never let go, Carly. We’ll never let go, Chris.
On the Democratic side, there was no great cataclysm that shook Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to their cores - just a record-shattering victory in New Hampshire for one candidate, and the continuing existential crisis facing the other, once-inevitable candidate who, without the support of Millennials, Gen Xers, liberals, moderates, women or people making less than $200,000 a year, appears to be a lot less inevitable. When the party’s base becomes a candidate’s fault line, maybe it’s the candidate that’s the problem.
Hence the move by both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns to make a mad dash for the one major Democratic demo that remains relatively up in the air: African Americans and other racial minorities. After all, the only state that’s whiter or more liberal than Iowa and New Hampshire is Vermont - how successful can Sanders be, Clinton’s camp hopes you’re asking, if he can’t win over racial minorities?
Barring any other dropouts - we’re keeping our eyes on you, Dr. Ben Carson - that’s it for tonight. See you tomorrow, the next day and every day until the campaign ends, the election occurs and the inauguration of [TKTKTK] as America’s 45th president.
Here’s a countdown clock, for scheduling purposes:
Chris Christie tells campaign staff he's dropping out of the presidential race
New Jersey governor Chris Christie has officially suspended his campaign for president, a campaign staffer told the Guardian, putting an end to a candidacy that would have made him the first governor from the state in nearly a century.
At an in-person meeting with campaign staffers in Morristown, New Jersey, Christie thanked his staff for their support and suspended the campaign. Christie’s decision comes at the bitter end of a seven-month campaign that pinned his presidential hopes on a strong showing in the New Hampshire primaries. Christie finished in sixth place in New Hampshire, at the bottom of the so-called “Governors” who have dominated - and bifurcated - the mainstream Republican vote in this cycle.
Despite having spent most of Tuesday telling New Hampshire voters that the race was “far from over,” speculation that Christie was on the verge of suspending his campaign came on Tuesday night, after his campaign informed press that he was canceling all scheduled events in South Carolina and was instead returning to his home state until further notice.
“We’re going to take a deep breath, see what the final results are tonight, because that matters,” he said at his Nashua campaign headquarters. “We leave New Hampshire tonight without an ounce of regret.”
Christie has two years left in his term as governor of New Jersey.
Updated
A former White House press secretary says that although Barack Obama hasn’t yet endorsed a candidate to succeed him in the Oval Office, he definitely has a personal preference.
That candidate? Hillary Clinton.
“I don’t think there is any doubt that he wants Hillary to win the nomination and believes that she would be the best candidate in the fall and the most effective as president in carrying forward what he’s achieved,” Jay Carney, Obama’s first press secretary, told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin.
“I think the president has signaled, while still remaining neutral, that he supports Secretary Clinton’s candidacy and would prefer to see her as the nominee,” Carney said. “He won’t officially embrace her unless and until it’s clear that she’s going to be the nominee. I think he is maintaining that tradition of not intervening in a party primary.”
Obama has maintained an officially neutral position on the Democratic presidential primary, and even went so far as to meet with Clinton’s opponent, Bernie Sanders, at the White House.
Updated
Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich spoke at a rally in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, today, following his second-place finish in New Hampshire, thanking the “army of volunteers” who delivered the victory for him.
Kasich also addressed the landslide win by Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, saying there was “no question” he will be able to win over the “blue-collared, conservative Democrats” in a general election.
Updated
Things are heating up as the race moves to South Carolina, where the conversation has turned sharply to the subject of race.
After New Hampshire resoundingly rejected Hillary Clinton, the once-inevitable candidate has turned her focus to the upcoming contest in South Carolina, where she hopes her family’s longstanding ties with black communities there will propel her to victory against Vermont senator Bernie Sanders.
On Wednesday, three black leaders who have endorsed Clinton raised concerns about Sanders record on race and criminal justice.
“Until recently, senator Sanders has been absent on the African American community,” Hazel Dukes, director of NAACP’s New York State Conference said on a conference call with reporters on Wednesday.
Duke said Clinton’s razor-thin victory in Iowa and resounding loss in New Hampshire were unrepresentative of the rest of the nation, where she would fare much better with a broad base of support.
“Did you see any blacks, or anybody brown, in these two past elections?” Dukes asked. “We haven’t seen America yet.”
Echoing this, Hakeem Jeffries, a congressman from New York, said that Sanders, who represents the largely white state of Vermont, was “missing from action” when it came to key issues affecting the African American community.
And South Carolina minority leader Todd Rutherford, who formally endorsed Clinton on Wednesday, accused Sanders of political opportunism, saying he only began addressing issues concerning the black community in “the last 40 days”.
Rutherford also questioned Sanders vote in support of the 1994 crime bill which then-president Bill Clinton signed into law. Bill Clinton recently renounced the bill, admitting it jailed too many young, black men and fueled the prison population boom. Sanders, too, has criticized the bill and put forward a comprehensive criminal justice reform plan that includes de-regulating marijuana.
Earlier on Wednesday, Sanders met privately with the Reverend Al Sharpton. Also on Wednesday, Ta-Nehisi Coates, one of the nation’s foremost writers on race and racism, said he was voting for Sanders despite earlier criticism of the senator over his position on reparations.
Carly Fiorina has dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina officially dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination on Wednesday, after a disappointing finish in the New Hampshire primaries and in the face of ineligibility in upcoming presidential debates.
“This campaign was always about citizenship,” Fiorina wrote in a Facebook post in her official campaign account. “I’ve said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I’m not going to start now. While I suspend my candidacy today, I will continue to travel this country and fight for those Americans who refuse to settle for the way things are and a status quo that no longer works for them.”
As the sole female candidate in the Republican field, Fiorina’s statement singled out women who looked up to her as a woman who could go toe-to-toe with the male-dominated political establishment, urging them to not be bound to ideology because of their gender.
“Do not let others define you,” Fiorina told women and girls. “Do not listen to anyone who says you have to vote a certain way or for a certain candidate because you’re a woman. That is not feminism. Feminism doesn’t shut down conversations or threaten women. It is not about ideology. It is not a weapon to wield against your political opponent. A feminist is a woman who lives the life she chooses and uses all her God-given gifts.”
Fiorina, 61, was one of a trio of Republican presidential candidates who had never before held elected office. Her 2010 run for one of California’s seat in the US senate collapsed, despite Fiorina’s willingness to dispatch millions of dollars in her personal fortune to fund her campaign.
The candidate had hoped to market her candidacy on her success as a business leader who had cracked the glass ceiling of the C-suite, but was dogged by her record as CEO of Hewlett-Packard. The computer giant’s $25bn acquisition of Compaq was roundly considered a bust, and Fiorina was ousted by the company’s board in 2005 with a $21m golden parachute.
A surprisingly adept undercard debate performance briefly launched Fiorina into the upper tier of candidates, but questions about the veracity of claims she made regarding Planned Parenthood in subsequent debates overshadowed her poised performances, and her poll numbers never recovered.
Questions about her knowledge of foreign policy were an additional handicap. Although Fiorina bragged in an interview with the Guardian that she “knows more world leaders on the stage” than any of her competitors for the 2016 nomination, her foreign policy worldview revolved more around criticism of the Obama administration than any overarching philosophy. After terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, put national security at the forefront of voters’ minds, Fiorina was relegated to the bottom bench.
Fiorina finished the Iowa caucuses with 2% of the vote, and came in only above Dr. Ben Carson, another political arriviste, in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primaries.
“As I have said to the many wonderful Americans I have met throughout this campaign, a leader is a servant whose highest calling is to unlock potential in others,” Fiorina said in the conclusion of her statement. “I will continue to serve in order to restore citizen government to this great nation so that together we may fulfill our potential.”
Updated
Former president George W. Bush is the star of a new radio advertisement for his younger brother Jeb(!) Bush’s presidential campaign. The former president, who is expected to dive back into campaigning on his brother’s behalf in South Carolina ahead of its primary on February 20, doesn’t sound all that thrilled to be doing it.
In the quavering voice of a kidnapping victim being forced to read their ransom note in front of a camera while bound to a chair in the back of an auto shop, the elder Bush declares to Palmetto State radio listeners that “we live in troubled times, with the military deployed around the world.”
“We need a strong leader,” Bush continues, “with experience, ideas and resolve. There’s no doubt in my mind that Jeb Bush will be a great commander in chief for our military. Jeb has dealt with crises as the governor of Florida, and he did so with resolve, steadiness and a calmness necessary in a good leader.”
“He respects the military, he honors their families, he can make the tough decisions to keep Americans safe and our country free,” Bush finishes. “And in a time of crisis, he will be a steady hand.
The ad is the latest indication that Bush will be making a strong play for South Carolina, the site of his elder brother’s most important primary victory against John McCain in his 2000 campaign for the Republican nomination. (It was also the site of campaign tactics that were a good deal bloodier than a tremulous radio ad.) Whether the support of the former president, who remains popular with conservatives, will be enough to sway voters in his brother’s favor remains an unanswered question.
“I’m the only candidate for president who’s running on my record — not away from it,” Jeb Bush says at the ad’s conclusion, a not-so-subtle dig at fellow Floridia Marco Rubio, “and the only candidate with a real plan to defeat ISIS, balance the budget and grow our economy.”
Updated
On the heels of a double-digit victory in the New Hampshire primaries, Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign has another shattered record - and this time, it’s all about the green.
In the 18 hours since the polls closed in the Granite State, the Sanders campaign raised more than $5.2 million, an all-time single-day record for the campaign. The average donation since the conclusion of Sanders’ victory: $34.
“I’m going to hold a fundraiser right here, right now, across America,” Sanders told the crowd gathered at his victory speech in Concord last night. “My request is please go to BernieSanders.com and contribute. Please help us raise the funds we need, whether it’s $10 bucks, $20 bucks, or $50 bucks. Help up us raise the money we need to take the fight to Nevada, South Carolina, and the states on Super Tuesday.”
With nearly all precincts in New Hampshire reporting, Sanders holds a 22-point advantage over Clinton, one of the largest margins of victory in the history of the first-in-the-nation primary.
Hillary Clinton may have gotten trounced in New Hampshire, but that doesn’t mean there’s no silver lining to her results in the first-in-the-nation primary. The former secretary of state lost by a 22-point spread, but thanks to the inscrutable weirdness of our electoral process, will likely leave the Granite State with as many delegates as victor Bernie Sanders.
It all comes down to superdelegates. Sanders is expected to rake in 15 delegates once the final tally is counted - he’s got 13 as of this afternoon, plus two “unpledged” delegates who are generally awarded to the winner of the popular vote. Clinton, meanwhile, won only nine delegates from the primary results - but that doesn’t include the six superdelegates whose support she had won before a single vote was cast. Those superdelegates - leaders within the New Hampshire Democratic party who are allowed to support any candidate they want to - bump Clinton’s delegate tally out of New Hampshire to 15.
Granted, some of those six superdelegates may be swayed to support Sanders after his record-shattering success in their state, and they’re allowed to change their support at any time. But as the delegate count stands now, Clinton and Sanders are tied.
The Clinton campaign has mounted an aggressive effort to secure about 360 superdelegates across the country, according to The Associated Press. Sanders has a total of eight superdelegates.
Rupert Murdoch put a fine point on the argument that Chris Christie’s epic smackdown of fellow presidential candidate Marco Rubio in the last Republican debate may have damaged his own presidential prospects today, comparing the New Jersey governor to a “suicide bomber.”
Chris Christie, suicide bomber. Damages victim while blowing himself up!
— Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) February 10, 2016
The billionaire tyrant, owner of News Corp. and its subsidiaries - among them the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Sky News and, possibly, you and your entire family - is referencing the kamikaze-esque nature of Christie’s bout with the Florida senator, who he accused of using canned lines during the final Republican debate before the New Hampshire primary.
Rubio was gravely wounded by the exchange and finished in a tentative fifth place in New Hampshire, but Rubio’s loss wasn’t Christie’s gain. The New Jersey governor is expected to announce the suspension of his presidential campaign before the week is out after his own poor showing in New Hampshire put him at sixth place.
It’s that time in the presidential race when candidates start dropping out, but those who do are hardly losers. Patrick Gavin explains why it’s good business to run for president, and why each candidate (including Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina) has a lot to gain for trying.
Updated
More from uptown...
The Reverend Al Sharpton, speaking outside of Sylvia’s Restaurant in Harlem following a breakfast meeting with Bernie Sanders, said that he and the candidate discussed a wide array of issues relevant to African Americans. “I’ve asked him very bluntly about affirmative action,” Sharpton said. “I’ve asked him very bluntly about police brutality and police misconduct.”
Donald Trump isn’t the only one worried about the need to build a southern border wall to stem a potential torrent of immigrants seeking relief: Canada is nervous, too.
That’s if the results of a new poll are any indication. Nearly two-thirds of Canadian voters told Canadian polling form Leger that they are afraid of the prospect of Trump being elected president of the United States. A mere 13% have a favorable opinion of the real estate tycoon and recent New Hampshire primary victor, with 70% declaring that they have a poor opinion of him.
As for native son Ted Cruz, born to an American mother in Calgary, he’s almost as unpopular: 14% of Canadians told Leger that they have a positive opinion of Cruz, with 22% saying they have a poor opinion and one in three voters saying that they were too unfamiliar to have an opinion.
On the heels of Hillary Clinton’s team declaring that race will be a central issue of her campaign going forward, two prominent African Americans dropped a pair of not-quite endorsements of her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Earlier this morning, Bernie Sanders enjoyed a chat with the Reverend Al Sharpton at Harlem’s iconic Sylvia’s Restaurant (try the chicken and waffles), agreeing to more involved meetings with Sharpton and other heads of national civil rights organizations in the weeks to come.
“My concerns is that in January of next year, for the first time in American history, a black family will be moving out of the White House,” Sharpton said. “I don’t want black concerns to be moved out with them.”
Shortly thereafter, writer Ta-Nehisi Coates told Amy Goodman on Democracy Now that he intends to vote for Sanders.
“I will be voting for Senator Sanders,” Coates said. “I have tried to avoid this question, but, yes, I will be voting for Senator Sanders. I try to avoid that, because I want to write as a journalist - do you know what I mean? - and separate that from my role as, I don’t know, a private citizen. But I don’t think much is accomplished by ducking the question. Yes, I will vote for Senator Sanders.”
Although neither counts as an endorsement of Sanders, per se - earlier in the interview, Coates said that although he “really, really want[s] to believe” in the Vermont senator, “it’s been very difficult to deliver on those promises that he said at the end: every person a job, every person a quality education, every person quality healthcare - while avoiding the issue of white supremacy.”
Coates further clarified on Twitter that his intention to vote for Sanders should not be construed as an endorsement:
Quick clarification: I was asked this morning on @democracynow who I was voting for.
— Ta-Nehisi Coates (@tanehisicoates) February 10, 2016
Addendum: No reason to be particularly excited about my personal vote. I'm gonna keep writing like I'm writing.
— Ta-Nehisi Coates (@tanehisicoates) February 10, 2016
So yeah. This ain't "feeling the Bern." It's just trying to be a decent citizen and as transparent as I can be.
— Ta-Nehisi Coates (@tanehisicoates) February 10, 2016
After a meeting with presidential candidate Bernie Sanders Wednesday morning, the Reverend Al Sharpton stopped short of an endorsement, at least until after he hears more from the Senator, and from his opponent Hillary Clinton specific to issues facing black Americans.
“I’ve asked him very bluntly about affirmative action. I’ve asked him very bluntly about police brutality and police misconduct,” Sharpton said after the brief breakfast meeting Sylvia’s restaurant in the historically and predominantly black neighborhood of Harlem.
Sharpton said that Sanders, fresh off his commanding victory over Clinton in the New Hampshire primary has agreed to further, more involved meetings with the Sharpton and other heads of national civil rights organizations. Sharpton is the founder of the National Action Network and has been a highly visible figure in US race conflicts for decades.
“My concerns is that in January of next year for the first time in American History, a black family will be moving out of the White House. I don’t want black concerns to be moved out with them,” Sharpton said.
While Sharpton declined to issue an official endorsement Wednesday, other black leaders on hand for the morning’s meeting were much more strident.
“There’s no candidate in this race as fearsome in standing up for those who need allies in the struggle than Bernie Sanders,” said Ben Jealous, the former President and CEO of the NAACP. Jealous offered Sanders his endorsement last week.
Bill Perkins, the New York state senator who represents Harlem was also present, and offered a resounding vote support to Sanders who has struggled so far in the campaign to make inroads with black voters who have historically been loyal to the Clintons.
“Harlem represents the black community and communities of color in general and we’re going to make sure he’s in all those communities so they can all ‘feel the Bern!’” Perkins said. The state senator officially endorsed Sanders in December.
He said the Senator’s woes in finding a Black audience have to do with exposure, and that once black voters find out more about who Sanders is, support will follow. “The concerns about healthcare, the concerns about living wages, the concerns about racial inequality are concerns that resonate in the community,” Perkins said, adding “the voice that we’re hearing represent that may be new to the community but the issues are not.”
Sharpton previously sat down with then candidate Barack Obama at the iconic soul food restaurant in 2008 before ultimately endorsing him. The restaurant is located just a few blocks from the site where former president Bill Clinton famously opened his Clinton foundation office in 2001.
Top Republicans had hoped New Hampshire would winnow the field of candidates, shorten a seemingly endless campaign and finally bring their party closer to the White House with anyone not named Donald Trump. Instead, American conservatives woke up on Wednesday to a wide-open race even more uncertain than the day before.
“Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents,” the mantra went, until grassroots movements frustrated parties’ control over the election year – frustration that reached a new peak in the sweeping victories on Tuesday by Trump and Bernie Sanders, two men campaigning as outsiders who mean to shake up the status quo.
Solidifying the anti-establishment mood was a stronger-than-expected showing here on Tuesday by Ted Cruz, the Texas senator who won the Iowa caucuses. Until now, New Hampshire’s social moderates had typically rebuked the ideological choices of Iowa’s evangelical electorate.
Despite finishing near the bottom of both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has pledged to remain in the Republican race for the presidency. Fiorina is taking on “the mainstream media,” a frequent target of her ire, for not including her in the most recent Republican presidential debate, and is girding herself for a fight to be included in the upcoming debate on Saturday.
Looking forward to debate this weekend in South Carolina. Let's use real criteria this time: if you've got a delegate, you've got a podium.
— Carly Fiorina (@CarlyFiorina) February 9, 2016
Lost in the shuffle of last night: A record as old as the Union itself was shattered. Ben Jacobs reports from New Hampshire:
Bernie Sanders made history on Tuesday night as he became the first Jewish American to win a presidential primary. The milestone came just eight days after Ted Cruz became the first Hispanic American to win a presidential nominating contest with his win in the Iowa caucuses.
Chris Christie is expected to suspend presidential campaign
New Jersey governor Chris Christie is expected to suspend his presidential campaign after a disappointing sixth-place finish in last night’s New Hampshire primaries, ABC News is reporting.
The decision comes after a post-election huddle with his family and campaign advisors, with a statement about the campaign’s future expected as early as today.
“We bet the ranch on New Hampshire, and no one ever anticipated the Trump phenomenon,” the source told ABC News. “[Christie]’s a realist.”
Part of the equation: Whether Christie would qualify for the next Republican debate. With a sixth-place finish and a low ranking in national polling, Christie would have a hard time making the debate stage.
Christie had told a crowd of supporters in New Hampshire on Tuesday night that he was headed home to New Jersey to “take a deep breath.”
The most jarring detail from Ben Carson’s primary night, erm, “party,” courtesy Adam Gabbatt:
The attendance at the party briefly peaked at about 50 people. It wasn’t much of a party. Supporters milled around chatting. Food was served. There were two bars set up but neither was inundated. A woman working behind one of them spent much of her time knitting a blanket.
New Hampshire's winners, losers and who?-sers
For those just catching up - or for those who wisely decided to stream Master Chef Junior instead of watching New Hampshire election returns - a quick breakdown of the winners, losers and really big losers of the Granite State’s unforgiving primaries.
Donald Trump: Winner
The real estate tycoon proved that his sky-high polling numbers can actually translate into votes with a double-digit win in the New Hampshire primaries. As long as the rest of the Republican field remains crowded with establishment infighting, the pro-Trump vote will outflank his opposition with ease.
Marco Rubio: Loser
He may have defied expectations in the Iowa caucuses with his almost-second finish, raising hopes for a candidate who could at long last consolidate the support of mainstream Republicans, but he lost the expectations game in a big way last night after a debate performance that left people looking for Rubio’s reboot button.
Bernie Sanders: Winner
The Vermont senator was always going to be formidable in neighboring New Hampshire, where the self-declared democratic socialist has been a ubiquitous presence in the state’s shared media market for years. But in beating Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in a state that has a long history of accommodating downtrodden members of the Clinton clan - and doing so among every demographic of import - showed skeptical politicos that his populist message inspires more than hashtags: It inspires action.
Hillary Clinton: Loser
The former secretary of state not only lost by a massive margin in the state that saved her candidacy in 2008 - she lost the demographic battles that matter most to aspiring Democratic presidential candidates. If young people, liberals, moderates, women and those who make less than $200,000 aren’t voting for a candidate, that candidate’s “inevitability” argument starts to look shaky.
John Kasich: Winner
Or, at least, winner-ish. The moderate Ohio governor bet his political life on the plan that moderate New Hampshire Republicans and independents would take to a gruff, straight-talking Rust Belt executive. But Kasich’s success may represent a Pyrrhic victory for the so-called “establishment” wing of the Republican field - if the moderate vote continues to be divided, Solomon-style, between four candidates, it becomes that much easier for far-right candidates to march towards the convention unimpeded.
Jeb Bush: Loser
The son-of-a-former-president, brother-of-another-former-president spent a king’s ransom in New Hampshire, and it wasn’t in hopes of a fourth-place finish in a state his family might as well own. He’ll survive - he’s still got an entire Smaug cave of super PAC money to spend - but if voters didn’t like him in New Hampshire, they’ll loathe him in South Carolina.
Ted Cruz: Winner
Moderate, secular New Hampshire was never going to be Cruz Country - but his respectable third-place finish is sandwiched between a win in the Iowa caucuses and the upcoming evangelical-filled South Carolina primaries, where this son of a preacher man will be able to hold court with ease - and without mis-naming 2 Corinthians.
Chris Christie: Loser
The New Jersey governor’s kamikaze attack on Rubio in the final Republican debate ahead of the New Hampshire primaries may have deflated the Florida senator, but Rubio’s loss wasn’t Christie’s gain. As Cady Heron once said, “Calling somebody else fat won’t make you any skinnier. Calling someone stupid doesn’t make you any smarter. And ruining Marco Rubio’s life definitely didn’t make Chris Christie any happier.”
Carly Fiorina: Loser
The flash has gone from the pan in the unlikely campaign of this former Hewlett-Packard executive’s presidential campaign. With no presidential debate invitations forthcoming, Fiorina’s singular strength - her ability to spin mendacity into debate gold - has been taken from her.
Dr. Ben Carson: Loser
The former pediatric neurosurgeon’s long march into obscurity continues unabated, with less than two percent of New Hampshire voters pulling the lever for the man who admitted that foreign policy isn’t his strongest suit.
San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich gets it.
At the end of courtside interview with Popovich, TNT reporter David Aldridge asked the coach whether he wanted to hear who won the New Hampshire primaries. “Yeah, who is it?” Popovich asked. “[Bernie] Sanders and [Donald] Trump,” Aldridge answered.
Popovich’s reaction is... well, we get it.
Popovich gonna Popovich #SASatMIA https://t.co/rEb69k39s3
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) February 10, 2016
What last night taught us - and what we still have to learn
The voters are mad as hell, and they’re not gonna take it anymore.
Discontent with Washington bureaucrats, fat cats and bureau-cats has been simmering in the American psyche for the better part of a decade, but until the New Hampshire primaries, that anti-establishment sentiment had been safely vented into socio-political movements of dubious impact.
Last night, however, frustration with a broken political system translated into more than chants and votes for pointless protest candidates. For politicos who viewed the polity’s love affair with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders merely as summer romances - “Hillary Clinton will have the nomination locked up by March!” “Trump is just an early-fall amusement, like Halloween candy or NBC’s pilot season!” - the illusion that this cycle will be anything but a heartbreak for the establishment has officially been shattered.
Ten days before the next caucus/primary, here are some takeaways for the still-stunned:
- Donald Trump isn’t just a force to be reckoned with - his message is, too. Two thirds of New Hampshire Republican primary voters declared that they want the federal government to implement a ban on Muslim immigrants to the United States - a position created, espoused and defended almost entirely by Trump. As easy as it was for experienced political watchers to dismiss voter attraction to Trump as a consequence of his celebrity, the real estate tycoon’s nativist sentiments have struck a chord with voters that other Republicans are too moderate - or too afraid - to play.
- Bernie Sanders’ success indicates an existential threat to Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. Sanders beat Clinton in nearly every demographic group that matters to a Democratic presidential candidate: the young, the liberal, the moderate, those who make under $200,000 per year, and, most jarringly, among women. For a candidate who saved her campaign (for a time) in 2008 with tears shed in a New Hampshire diner, Clinton’s loss among women represents a demographic shift in support that should have her worried. The former secretary’s only saving grace: Sanders’ relatively anemic support among racial minorities. The Vermont senator, however, has a plan for that, and should it work, the “inevitability” argument for Clinton will have officially popped.
- There’s no “white knight” establishment candidate to save the Republican Party - at least, not yet. For the so-called “mainstream” wing of the Grand Old Party, Marco Rubio’s surprise near-second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses represented an opportunity to re-take the race from Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. But Rubio’s robotic implosion during the last primary debate before the New Hampshire primaries decimated his support in a state where two-thirds of those who voted last night said that recent debates impacted their decision. Instead of winnowing the field of logical establishment candidates from four (John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Rubio), New Hampshire made the race for the middle even more chaotic. Until the likely trio of establishment candidates - Christie has returned to his home state of New Jersey to reassess his campaign’s future - stop splitting the vote, Cruz and Trump’s road to the nomination will be paved in gold.
- “South Carolina is going to be a bloodbath.” Okay, this one’s not ours - it was muttered by a Rubio aide to Politico after last night, but it’s still true. The Palmetto State is infamous for its history of hosting some of the ugliest campaigns in modern presidential history, and with its red-meat conservative voting base naturally inclined toward Cruz and Trump’s campaigns, expect much worse than shady letters to voters and presidential candidates calling each other “pussies.”
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders both gave epic victory speeches last night - the Vermont senator may, in fact, still be speaking. Check out your future co-presidents:
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, conceded both the primary and the fact that she “has more work to do” winning over young people and progressives.
He always said he was a winner; winning was his brand. And on Tuesday night in New Hampshire, Donald Trump finally got to live up to his own hype.
Reality and the brand came together at last.
It was, first, a victory over his opponents. Keen to show magnanimity in triumph, Trump was quick to tell a victory party jammed with supporters how there were “some very talented people” among the rivals he had defeated – a tribute whose gracious exterior could not conceal the utter condescension within.
But Trump’s victory was over much more than the trailing pack of senators and governors squabbling over the right to consider themselves Trump’s challenger – who, in that very process, only confirmed his message that he stands on a plane above mere politicians.
Can’t bear to look? Here’s a recap of last night’s winners - and losers - in two minutes:
It was, agreed both winners, a “yuge” night in American politics.
A record number of New Hampshire voters queued in freezing traffic jams until well after polls were due to close to pick a Democrat and Republican candidate to run for president who had, until recently, belonged to neither party.
The rebellion against the political establishment was so overwhelming that no one even waited for the last-minute voters to make it in the door before declaring results that would have been unthinkable a few months ago: Bernie Sanders, a self-declared democratic socialist and independent senator from Vermont, had trounced Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race by almost 22 points. A bombastic property tycoon called Donald Trump had flattened a crop of Republican veterans who were once seen as the strongest field of conservative candidates for a generation.
What a primary day it has been...
Hello, and welcome to our coverage of the 2016 presidential campaign, the day after Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump made history in New Hampshire with respective victories for their unpredictable and “revolutionary” campaigns.
Trump, the billionaire who has mocked his opponents and inflamed anti-immigrant sentiment on his way to the top of the polls, won by a double-digit margin over the Republican field on Tuesday. Unusually emotional after the win, he told supporters: “I will be greatest jobs president God ever created.”
Relative moderate John Kasich won second place with 15.9%, followed by Ted Cruz (11.6%) and Jeb Bush (11.1%). Marco Rubio and Chris Christie trailed fifth and sixth, disappointing the former after a strong showing in Iowa, and possibly crushing the latter’s ambitions. Christie returned to his New Jersey home when results showed that his months of campaigning in New Hampshire failed to pay off.
Sanders meanwhile beat Hillary Clinton 60% to 38.4%, a vindication for a campaign that started with a handful of staffers out of Burlington, Vermont. Clinton leads Sanders nationally by more than 12 points, according to poll averages, but the senator has largely won young people away from the former secretary of state, chipping away at the margin.
The senator will begin his day by meeting Rev Al Sharpton at Sylvia’s restaurant in Harlem, New York – Jamiles Lartey will be at the scene for the Guardian – before he and Clinton head to the next round of primary states: South Carolina and Nevada.
Cruz has already reached South Carolina, where he hopes to reinvigorate evangelical voters who lifted him to victory in Iowa, and the pack of Republicans not named Donald Trump will lick their wounds and try to edge back into a race that remains as volatile as ever.
Updated
