San Jose State vs Ball State: Offerpad Arizona Bowl prediction and game preview.
San Jose State vs Ball State: Offerpad Arizona Bowl Broadcast
Date: Thursday, December 31
Game Time: 2:00 ET
Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Network: CBS
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San Jose State (7-0) vs Ball State (6-1) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Offerpad Arizona Bowl
– The Allstate Sugar Bowl – a College Football Playoff semifinal between Ohio State and Clemson – and this. Those are the only two bowl games with a matchup of conference champions. Ball State is a veteran team with a good balance and a whole lot of offense. It shocked Buffalo to win the MAC Championship, but handling Mountain West champion San Jose State is a whole different issue.
– It’s the best season in the history of San Jose State football, going 7-0 with every win by double-digits. The program has won its last four bowl games, but it took since 1987 to get them. Head coach Brent Brennan has become a hot name on the coaching carousel circuit, QB Nick Starkel has been fantastic after transferring in from Arkansas – and before that Texas A&M – and the defense has been steadily great.
– Ball State has never won a bowl game in seven tries – this is the first attempt since 2013. The Cardinals have problems against good passing teams, but they own the turnover battle with an ultra-aggressive style on both sides of the ball.
Overall, this young bowl hasn’t been bad. Two of the five games have gone to overtime, the inaugural effort was fun – a 28-23 Nevada win over Colorado State – and technically, this is the biggest matchup yet with the two conference champs.
Why San Jose State, Ball State Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why San Jose State Will Win, Why Ball State Will Win, San Jose State vs Ball State Prediction
Why San Jose State Will Win
– Nick Starkel. Josh Love came up with a big season at quarterback for the Spartans last year, and it wasn’t going to be easy replacing a guy who threw for almost 4,000 yards with 22 touchdown passes and eight picks. Starkel bounced around from Texas A&M to Arkansas to San Jose State, but he’s a veteran with a good arm, enough experience to matter, and he’s been exactly what the offense needs hitting 65% of his passes for 1,906 yards and 16 touchdowns with four picks.
The Ball State pass defense has allowed 250 yards or more six of the seven games so far. It’s about to get hammered again.
– The Spartans are doing this with great line play. The offensive front is giving Starkel plenty of time to work, and the defensive line was one of the best in the country both against the run and at getting to the quarterback. Ball State allows way too many sacks – the Spartan defensive front will feast.
– It’s not fair to suggest that Ball State lives on turnover margin, but it’s a major factor to the success. The Cardinals are +6 on the year with ten takeaways over the last four games, but San Jose State doesn’t turn the ball over enough to matter. The Spartans have spread out five turnovers over the seven games, and they have yet to lose a fumble.
Why Ball State Will Win
– The Ball State offense is terrific. Even with star RB Caleb Huntley opting out early on to get ready for the NFL, the offense was just fine with a decent running game and a solid season from QB Drew Plitt. He kept the offense moving, kept the picks to just one in every game but in the win over Western Michigan – when he didn’t give away any – and he has the receiving corps to keep bombing away. And …
– For all of the good things the San Jose State defense has done, it’s been getting hit hard through the air, giving up over 220 yards in every game but the opener against run-only Air Force. The Cardinals are good at moving the chains, they don’t make a whole lot of mistakes, and there aren’t any fumbles with just one on the year. Plitt is the veteran passer who can hold up through this as long as he doesn’t have to press.
– The Cardinals have to keep the chains moving. They don’t have to be explosive, but Plitt has to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry against the San Jose State pass rush. The Ball State offense only failed to get past a 42% third down conversion rate twice. It does a great job of closing out drives with points and taking advantage of every opportunity. That starts with third down conversions.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, San Jose State vs Ball State Prediction, Offerpad Arizona Bowl History
What’s Going To Happen
San Jose State is in the midst of its greatest season in program history, and it’s not going to stop now.
Ball State has been good, the offense has managed to always overcome the other issues, and the defense has avoided getting gouged. Drew Plitt and the passing game will be good enough to keep San Jose State from ever getting comfortable, but the attack will slow down in the second half.
The San Jose State defensive front will take over as the game goes on, QB Nick Starkel will be solid, the offense won’t make the big errors Ball State will need, and the defense – especially against the run – will take care of the rest.
Offerpad Arizona Bowl: San Jose State vs Ball State Prediction, Line
San Jose State 34, Ball State 24
Bet on San Jose State vs Ball State with BetMGM
San Jose State -9.5, o/u: 63.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
– CFN Experts Picks: Offerpad Arizona Bowl
Must See Rating: 3
5: New Year’s Day on the couch
1: New Year’s Eve going out
Offerpad Arizona Bowl History
Dec. 31, 2019 Wyoming 38, Georgia State 17
Dec. 29, 2018 Nevada 16, Arkansas State 13 OT
Dec. 29, 2017 New Mexico State 26, Utah State 20 OT
Dec. 30, 2016 Air Force 45, South Alabama 21
Dec. 29, 2015 Nevada 28, Colorado State 23
