Samoa went to the polls on Friday in a national election called early by the caretaker prime minister, Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa, after months of political turmoil.
Official campaigning ceased on Sunday with billboards blacked out, posters taken down and social media endorsements suspended under strict orders from the electoral commissioner.
The vote is tipped as unpredictable, with three main contenders vying for leadership.
While most Samoans are focused on cost-of-living pressures, the result will also shape the country’s approach to China, Australia and the US in a region marked by intensifying geopolitical rivalry.
Why was the election called?
The Pacific country of about 219,000 people is hoping to usher in a new era of stability after a turbulent political chapter.
Fiamē survived two no-confidence motions in the span of two weeks in February and March, but was forced to call the election in May when her minority government was unable to pass its national budget. Her opponents in parliament accused her of being unfit for office.
Her leadership also came under pressure in April when widespread blackouts prompted a state of emergency and intensified scrutiny of Fiamē’s leadership. The outages hit an economy already strained by inflation.
Fiamē’s term got off to a rocky start in 2021 after a knife-edge election result led to legal challenges and constitutional manoeuvring that left the country without a functioning government for 45 days. The country’s first female prime minister was sworn in under a marquee outside parliament after being locked out of the chamber.
“Nobody wants the repetition of what happened in 2021,” broadcaster Tui Eddie Taualapini said. “People just want a government to be established quickly and bring in the budget.”
Who are the frontrunners?
A total of 187 candidates, including 46 independents, are running across six parties for 50 seats.
Anna Powles, associate professor at Massey University, said the contest was “shaping up to be unpredictable, with a cast of old and new politicians and parties”.
She said the race was centred on three frontrunners for the top job:
Fiamē, now leading the Samoa Uniting party (Sup), after breaking away from Faatuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (Fast).
Tuila’epa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi, the 81-year-old leader of the Human Rights Protection party (HRPP) and long-serving former prime minister.
La’aulialemalietoa Leuatea Polata’ivao Schmidt, former agriculture minister, now leader of Fast after a split with Fiamē.
The campaign has been coloured by personal rivalries.
Fiamē expelled La’aulialemalietoa from cabinet in 2023 after he was charged with offences including harassment and attempting to pervert the course of justice, which he denies.
When he refused to resign, she dismissed him – only to be ousted herself from Fast, which installed him as leader. She responded by founding Sup and launching legal action accusing him of spreading conspiracy theories during the campaign.
What have they promised?
All three frontrunners are focused on cost-of-living relief.
Fiamē has pledged to remove tariffs on staple foods and expand free healthcare and education.
Tuila’epa has promised one-off 500 tala (US$182) payments to all Samoans. He has also pledged to construct a bridge between the two main islands – separated by 23km of water – which has been criticised by opponents as unrealistic.
La’aulialemalietoa has offered monthly allowances for pregnant women and extra support for low-income families.
What does it mean for Samoa - and the Pacific?
“These elections are very much driven by domestic issues,” Powles said.
For most voters, domestic issues dominate – especially restoring political stability and addressing inflation. According to the Samoa Bureau of Statistics consumer prices are up almost 30% from 2022.
“Cost of living is the most important issue to local people now,” Taualapini said. “Everybody’s promising to fix it … but people are waiting to see who will actually deliver.”
But the next government will also shape Samoa’s foreign policy at a time of intensifying competition between China and Samoa’s western partners.
Samoa signed a strategic partnership with Beijing in 2022, which included a fingerprint laboratory and police training centre in Apia. Debt repayments to China are 2.6% of GDP – the fourth-highest rate in the world, according to Lowy Institute analysis.
Fiamē has sought to balance ties with China and western allies. After taking office in 2021, she scrapped a proposed $100m China-backed port at Vaiusu Bay, calling it excessive for a small island country already heavily indebted to Beijing.
She told Reuters at the time that Samoa’s debt to China was “a pressing issue for voters”, while stressing she wanted constructive relations with both Beijing and Washington.
Tuila’epa, by contrast, fostered close ties with China during his two decades in power, backing the Vaiusu port as a way to boost jobs and trade. His return could signal a renewed openness to Chinese-backed infrastructure.
The election also comes just weeks before the Pacific Islands Forum summit in Honiara, where leaders are expected to grapple with issues ranging from climate change to regional security.
Regardless of who wins the election, Samoa is expected to maintain a pragmatic stance.
“Samoa’s leaders from Tuia’epa to Fiame have been adept at leveraging bilateral partners in support of Samoan development priorities and national interest,” Powles said.
