The two sides of Newcastle's lockout debate are using the same statistics to support their arguments.
In one corner are police, doctors, academics and local anti-violence campaigners like Tony Brown who argue that Newcastle's inner-city suburbs still have rates of alcohol violence well above the state average, despite a steep drop since stricter licensing conditions came into force in 2008.
In the other corner are Newcastle council and politicians on both sides, Labor lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes, Labor MP Tim Crakanthorp and Liberal Customer Services Minister Victor Dominello, who believe Newcastle's late-night culture has changed significantly in the past 12 years and the city can be trusted to drink stronger drinks later into the evening and move safely between venues after 1.30am.
They are pushing for watered down restrictions to help the hospitality industry recover from COVID-19, though their bipartisan campaign began years before the pandemic arrived.
The Australian Hotels Association has not spoken publicly about its position during the recent debate, but in 2017 the association asked liquor licensing authorities to allow the later sale of shots and cocktails without seeking an end to the 1.30am lockouts.
It argued back then that it was a collaboration between inner-city hotels to ban troublesome patrons, and not lockouts, which had cut assault rates significantly since 2011.
Underpinning arguments on both sides are NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research figures for violent assaults in individual suburbs and local government areas throughout the state.
Supporters of relaxed restrictions use the significant drop in assaults in Newcastle's CBD since 2008 to argue for the removal of lockouts, while lockout supporters use the fall to argue for their retention.
The rate of alcohol-related, non-domestic violent assaults in the suburb of Newcastle in 2019, the last year not affected by COVID, was 2323 per 100,000 people, 19 times the NSW average.
Sydney's CBD had a similar rate to Newcastle's, while the Kings Cross suburbs of Potts Point (679.3) and Darlinghurst (950.7) were far lower but still above the NSW rate of 117.5.
The NSW government revoked lockout laws in Sydney CBD a year ago and in Kings Cross this week, leaving Newcastle as the last metropolitan area in NSW with a late-night curfew.
You only have to take a walk down Hunter Street to see how much the city has changed since 2008.
Tim Crakanthorp
In raw numbers, Newcastle and Newcastle West recorded a total of 138 alcohol-related, non-domestic violent assaults in 2019, compared with 194 in Potts Point and Darlinghurst.
But Newcastle outstripped the two inner-east Sydney suburbs for "serious" alcohol assaults 51 to 37.
Looking at a different set of BOCSAR statistics, the Newcastle local government area is among the most dangerous in the state for non-domestic violent assaults.
The LGA came in 11th overall out of 119 in 2019 with a rate of 661.8 such assaults per 100,000 people. The only council areas ranked higher were nine in western NSW and tourist-heavy Byron Bay.
Sydney LGA had a higher rate than Newcastle, but BOCSAR does not include it in that data set due to its high tourist numbers.
Newcastle's rate of non-domestic violent assaults was twice that of 77th-ranked Wollongong LGA (317.5) and 70th-ranked Lake Macquarie (328.9).
"While the situation has significantly improved in Newcastle, the inconvenient truth remains that our reported levels of alcohol-fuelled violence still significantly exceed the NSW and major Australian cities' average rate," Mr Brown said.
Regional police commander Wayne Humphrey said last week that removing Newcastle's lockouts would be "absolute lunacy" until the city's assault rates fell to the state average.
City of Newcastle chief executive officer Jeremy Bath wrote an opinion piece in the Newcastle Herald last month arguing for a review of lockout rules in the city.
He echoed the views of the AHA's 2017 submission in noting that alcohol assault rates had fallen faster in other parts of the state without lockouts than they had in central Newcastle over the past 10 years.
The BOCSAR statistics bear this out.
The number of alcohol-related, non-domestic violent assaults in the three suburbs most affected by the Newcastle "package" of licensing restrictions, Newcastle, Newcastle West and Hamilton, fell 46 per cent, from 396 to 215, between 2007 and 2019.
In Wollongong, which does not have lockouts, such assaults fell 59 per cent, from 290 to 124, in the same period.
Mr Bath said on Friday that he supported an evidence-based trial of removing lockouts in Newcastle.
"There can be little doubt that the lockout laws helped make the CBD safer when first introduced 13 years ago," he said.
"But the question that needs to be answered is are they still making a difference in 2021 given the more responsible way in which Novocastrians consume alcohol at licensed premises?"
Mr Crakanthorp, asked to provide the evidence on which he based his position, said the BOCSAR statistics demonstrated a clear reduction in alcohol violence.
"You only have to take a walk down Hunter Street to see how much the city has changed since 2008," he said.
"In 2008 there were no iPhones, no Uber, no light rail, and a small bar licence for low-impact venues did not exist. The fact that the city now has six small bars and it's first five-star hotel about to open very much demonstrates a culture shift in Newcastle.
"Cities change and technology evolves. The NSW government committed to reviewing these policies over a year ago and this review needs to be let to take its course."
The Newcastle Herald asked Mr Dominello to provide the evidence basis for his stance on lockouts and received a written response from an Independent Liquor & Gaming Authority spokesperson referring to an ongoing trial of relaxed alcohol restrictions in Newcastle small bars.
"The Newcastle liquor licence conditions imposed in March 2008 relate to small bars and restaurants only," the spokesperson said.
"The special conditions imposed on high-risk venues in 2008 remain in place and these venues are not part of the current trial.
"Venues have the option to apply to the Independent Liquor & Gaming Authority to remove or vary the conditions, and ILGA would consider any applications on a case-by-case basis."
ILGA told the Newcastle Herald in late January that it would "continue to determine applications lodged by Newcastle venues (including hotels) to vary their licence conditions".
"These applications will be determined with a view to furthering the objects of the Liquor Act 2007, which include the 'balanced development, in the public interest, of the liquor industry' and contribution to the 'responsible development of related industries such as the live music, entertainment, tourism and hospitality industries'.
"Once the [small bar] trial has been completed the results will be evaluated and can be used to support the authority's decision making in respect of applications made for new and existing venues in Newcastle."
Mr Brown and Superintendent Humphrey have raised concerns that the small bar trial is being used as justification for reviewing rules governing hotels and nightclubs, despite past assurances to the contrary.
Mr Brown said he was concerned that ILGA was moving towards a case-by-case assessment of licensing applications which "undermines the key benefit of a consistent, whole-of-precinct approach".
"Stats are only one form of evidence. They can be manipulated, subject to bias and a range of methodological problems," he said.
"BOCSAR has warned against governments inaccurately attributing reductions in alcohol-related crime stats with their policy interventions. These fail to prove causation, as opposed to coincidence.
"Front-line emergency workers are the best, most reliable and trusted organisations to express an unbiased view of an alleged improvement in crowd and outlet behaviour and alleged sophistication within a context of Australia-wide, long-term reductions in the consumption of alcohol and pub attendance."
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