Predictable, no? As soon as New Zealand slipped to 40 for 4 this morning after nine overs, the Spin suspected England's number was up. This wasn't because of any ingrained pessimism, although the seasoned English cricket follower has come to take nothing for granted over the years. It was because a side so patently unsure of itself is always going to lose the vital moments to a side that knows its game plan and - crucially for New Zealand - its limitations.
A lot has been made of the failure over the past week of England's Twenty20 specialists, but some of the criticism has been slightly unfair: Darren Maddy batted superbly this morning; Chris Schofield might have been England's hero against South Africa on Sunday if Paul Collingwood hadn't made a hash of catching Albie Morkel moments before he started launching sixes into the Newlands brewery; and, in the same game, Jeremy Snape was harshly given just one over, despite the fact he had Mark Boucher dropped off successive deliveries. Granted, Luke Wright's attempts to open the innings, championed here last week, have fallen flat, although his knock today suggests he will have a role to play lower down the order.
But England's undoing has been their confusion about what constitutes their best side. The absence of Ian Bell was largely unavoidable, mainly because the ICC insisted on teams finalising their 15-man squads before Bell flourished against India in the NatWest Series. Everything else, though, has been their own fault, including the dropped catches against South Africa and the selection of James Kirtley ahead of Jimmy Anderson against Australia. When Judgment Day comes, that one will be right up there.
The decision to stick with Matt Prior at the top of the order is a worrying piece of stubbornness, and it would presumably have continued today if he hadn't broken his thumb in the nets. The Spin has said it before and it will keep saying it until he is dropped down the order: Prior is not a one-day opener.
Innings such as the one he played against South Africa (32 off 31 balls) look good on paper. In practice they are less so, not only because Prior gets to bat when the fielding restrictions are in place, but also because he ate up one-fifth of England's total allocation while they were chasing 7½ an over. If Durham's Phil Mustard does well in the one-day internationals in Sri Lanka, then Prior might struggle to regain his place.
The unwillingness to try Owais Shah at the top of the order was just as unimaginative, particularly given his unusual ability to hit low full-tosses over the rope. But more bone-headed was the refusal to allow Dimitri Mascarenhas to show that his five sixes against India at The Oval were no fluke. It was bad enough promoting the desperately out-of-form Andrew Flintoff in ahead of him against Zimbabwe to make 13 off 13 balls; it was a complete scandal sending in Snape, an honest nurdler, in ahead of him at a stage of the run chase against South Africa that demanded big-hitting. The look on Mascarenhas's face as he walked out to bat in Cape Town on Sunday might just have told a tale.
And so another global one-day event comes and goes with England, who are now reliant on a set of freakish results elsewhere to qualify for the semi-finals, barely causing a ripple. "If England play half-decently, they should win this," announced the former New Zealand seamer Danny Morrison at the halfway stage of today's game. The trouble is, this England team play half-decently less than half the time. And they might soon learn that Flintoff has no chance of making the tour to Sri Lanka. It has been quite a week.
Extract taken from the Spin, Guardian Unlimited's weekly take on the world of cricket.
