KANSAS CITY, Mo. �� The only way forward is through brutal honesty and realistic self-evaluation. No sport moves as quickly, or with such little empathy, as the NFL.
Only fools assume what happened in the past will continue to happen in the future, unless that assumption is "the Patriots will win every year from now until Armageddon because Bill Belichick is an alien."
And so it is that this particular group of Chiefs players and executives attempt to solve a puzzle that no group of Chiefs players and executives has solved since 1970, which is so long ago CBS erased the tape to save money:
Get to the Super Bowl.
And it's hard to believe that will happen without addressing the quarterback situation.
This is not a call for the Chiefs to walk away from Alex Smith, even though this is the first offseason since his arrival in which they could do it without a fatal salary cap hit. This is a call for them to look, to try, to make sure they don't have access to a better option _ whether that's Tony Romo in a trade, Deshaun Watson in the draft (which would almost certainly require a trade up), or anything else.
In certain circles around Kansas City, this was supposed to be the year. Andy Reid and John Dorsey took over as coach and general manager four years ago, and if nothing else they deserve credit for providing the stability that chairman Clark Hunt had previously only talked about.
But professional sports are unforgiving. There are far too many millions, and far too much investment from fans, for it to be any other way.
So even if the Chiefs have upgraded from a clunker to a respectable sedan over the last four years, they're still being passed by faster cars on the road. They should be looking for more horsepower.
They can focus on the penalty called on Eric Fisher, if they want, ignoring that this would be stupid and counterproductive for any number of reasons: winning teams don't whine about officials, it was a legitimate hold, the Steelers were still in good position to win either way, and the Chiefs screwed up way more plays themselves than the officials.
The Chiefs will go through their usual self-scouting this offseason, and to be sure, Dorsey and Reid have been better than most at improving through the draft, waiver pickups, undrafted free agents, and veteran free agents.
They will continue that work now, presumably putting a priority on the team's problem areas _ including run defense, cornerback depth, and more dynamism from the running back position.
There are internal improvements that need to be made, too. Jeremy Maclin was not the best version of himself this season. The offensive line needs to get stronger. Travis Kelce is wildly talented, a good employee at heart, loads of fun and absolutely worth the trouble, but he should also be beyond these childish outbursts.
The coaches wear some of this, too. Reid has quietly improved his game management, but the offense stagnating after the first drive or two became far too much of a trend. Defensively, the Chiefs were not able to generate enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, at least some of that is scheme.
But the quarterback is the easiest thing on the field to see, and the single most impactful position. This group of talent failed to reach even the AFC Championship Game in part because Smith wasn't good enough, and it's hard to feel confident on that changing based solely on tightening a loose bolt here and adding a new blitz there.
Again, this is not a rip job on Smith. He is better than many want to believe. This season he led the greatest comeback in franchise history, was terrific when it most mattered in Denver, and helped beat the Falcons on the road in part by avoiding the mistakes that the presumptive league MVP on the other side made.
A team can win a Super Bowl with Smith, in other words, but there is a game of semantics in that statement depending on your definition of "can." Because, yes, you can imagine a reality in which his receivers don't drop as many passes and the offensive line holds up better and the Chiefs beat the Steelers.
You can even imagine a reality in which the Chiefs are a bad matchup for the Patriots _ strong pass rushers, playmakers in the secondary, and two offensive forces in Kelce and Tyreek Hill _ and after that, the Chiefs won in Atlanta, so who can say anything is impossible?
The problem is that Smith may be the worst quarterback a team can win a Super Bowl with in today's NFL. The problem is that he can help everyone get where they need to be safely, but playoff games usually require a bus driver instead of a crossing guard.
Smith does not throw receivers open. He is strong with timing throws, and has the respect of his teammates. But he cannot cover their mistakes, or shortcomings. His pocket presence is skittish, he did not use his athleticism as much this year, and he is still too hesitant to throw downfield.
He has considerable strengths, particularly after accounting for four years of the Chiefs building around his talents. So, yes, it can be done. But professional sports favor aggression over hope.
For the first time since trading for him before the 2013 season, the Chiefs can gain salary cap space by cutting Smith and committing to another quarterback. That's highly unlikely, because the front office and coaches are committed to Smith. There is a genuine and deep love for him in the building.
But the Chiefs cannot operate from love. This is business. Romo will be available. He will reportedly see the Broncos as a better option, which is understandable. John Elway already put one injured star quarterback into a parade. The Texans, Bears, and other teams are more desperate for quarterback help.
After that, the Chiefs need to prioritize a quarterback in the draft. That doesn't mean draft one at any cost. But it does mean real energy into upgrading the sport's most important position. If that requires trading up, cool. The Chiefs will have extra picks.
Deshaun Watson, in particular, would be a tremendous fit in Kansas City and with Reid. Smith's contract, the rookie wage scale, and what is widely considered the personalities of both men indicate Watson could take a "redshirt" year to learn a complicated system and take over in 2018.
One more time, this is not a call to dump Smith. He's a fine quarterback, and even with those two brutal end-zone interceptions this season has helped win far more games than he's helped lose. Reid is right when he says the Chiefs can win with Smith.
The part he doesn't mention is that it's harder for the Chiefs to win with Smith than it is for teams with star quarterbacks. The Chiefs have tried it this way far too long.
They need to at least pursue the other way, now as much as ever.
