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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Sport
Sam Farmer

Sam Farmer's Week 17 NFL picks

The Los Angeles Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under). Last week's record: 13-3 (.813); season 153-86-1 (.640). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 10-6 (.625); season 118-120-2 (.496). All times Pacific.

Rams (11-4) at Ravens (8-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 3 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Ravens are banged up, and Lamar Jackson is still limping on that bum ankle. Not good for outrunning Aaron Donald. Matthew Stafford looking to bounce back after a three-interception game.

Prediction: Rams 30, Ravens 21

Giants (4-11) at Bears (5-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 6. O/U: 37 1/2.

The Bears should be able to run on the Giants, whose defense should hang in but ultimately buckle. It's the Giants offense that's really a mess. Two bad teams in an ugly slugfest that gets lopsided.

Prediction: Bears 24, Giants 10

Chiefs (11-4) at Bengals (9-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Tempting to take Cincinnati. The Bengals are dangerous and coming off a 20-point thrashing of Baltimore. Still, Kansas City has won eight in a row and scored 48, 34 and 36 in the last three, so ...

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bengals 24

Jaguars (2-13) at Patriots (9-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 15 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Bill Belichick doesn't get embarrassed often, and it has happened two weeks in row. The Patriots bounce back and beat stuffing out of a bad team. Trevor Lawrence has one touchdown pass in last eight games.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Jaguars 9

Dolphins (8-7) at Titans (10-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Titans by 3 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Dolphins have won seven in row and, with the defense playing the way it is, should keep rolling. Not entirely sold on Tennessee, which had lost three of four until San Francisco folded last weekend.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Titans 18

Raiders (8-7) at Colts (9-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Raiders have beaten teams by rushing four and dropping seven. The Colts can make you pay for that with the way they run Jonathan Taylor. With or without Carson Wentz, Indy controls clock.

Prediction: Colts 24, Raiders 21

Falcons (7-8) at Bills (9-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 14 1/2. O/U: 44.

Josh Allen has taken control and the Bills' offense has been on fire the last two weeks. Buffalo should be able to pass on Atlanta and, on the other side of the ball, turn up the heat with a pass rush.

Prediction: Bills 30, Falcons 18

Eagles (8-7) at Washington Football Team (6-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 45.

Washington just got humiliated on national TV and two of its best defensive players got in a fistfight on the sideline. Philadelphia has won five of six, including beating Washington two weeks ago.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Washington 21

Buccaneers (11-4) at Jets (4-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 13. O/U: 45 1/2.

Tom Brady still wants to win the passing title, the touchdown title ... all the titles on his way back to a Super Bowl. The Buccaneers keep their foot on the gas and make up for a COVID-19-depleted secondary.

Prediction: Buccaneers 33, Jets 13

Broncos (7-8) at Chargers (8-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 6. O/U: 45 1/2.

Broncos have won four of last five meetings against Chargers, including a decisive win last month. Austin Ekeler and Joey Bosa are back. Broncos were held to 13 or fewer points in three of last four games.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Broncos 20

Texans (4-11) at 49ers (8-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 12 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Another opponent might be able to take advantage of some subpar corner play with the 49ers, but the Texans aren't really equipped. Maybe Brandin Cooks has a big play. Still, the 49ers hold serve.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Texans 16

Cardinals (10-5) at Cowboys (11-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 5 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Everything is crumbling for Arizona, which has lost three in a row and really misses DeAndre Hopkins. The Cowboys are getting healthy and are riding high defensively. Dallas confidence is growing.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Cardinals 20

Panthers (5-10) at Saints (7-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Saints by 7. O/U: 38 1/2.

Carolina's offensive line is terrible, and whoever is at quarterback is going to run around and hold the ball too long. The Saints' front four will have a big day, and Alvin Kamara will get the ball in space.

Prediction: Saints 21, Panthers 13

Lions (2-12-1) at Seahawks (5-10)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 7. O/U: 42 1/2.

Jared Goff, who has played some good games at Seattle, is off the COVID-19 list but is dealing with a knee injury. Seattle has all sorts of issues but should be able to protect home field against feisty Detroit.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Lions 23

Vikings (7-8) at Packers (12-3)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Vikings beat the Packers in Minnesota in November, so a sweep would be something. But it's unlikely to happen with Aaron Rodgers playing at home on national TV. Packers win their fifth in row.

Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24

Browns (7-8) at Steelers (7-7-1)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Browns by 3. O/U: 41.

The Browns should get a bunch of guys back off the COVID-19 list, and with Nick Chubb running the ball, they should be able to handle the Steelers, who are typically good on national stage, but ...

Prediction: Browns 24, Steelers 20

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