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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Sport
Sam Farmer

Sam Farmer's Week 16 NFL picks

The Los Angeles Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under). Last week's record: 12-4 (.750); season 148-83-1 (.628). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 7-9 (.438); season 108-114-2 (.487). All times Pacific.

49ers (7-7) at Titans (9-5)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 3 1/2. O/U: 44.

A.J. Brown is getting activated for Tennessee, and he's really tough. But the Titans are finding ways to lose. The 49ers are on a roll and Jimmy Garoppolo is on fire, and that makes the difference.

Prediction: 49ers 24, Titans 20

Browns (7-7) at Packers (11-3)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

Line: Packers by 7 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Hard to know how many players the Browns are going to get off the COVID-19 list, so surviving this super-short week is a real challenge. It's unwise to bet against Aaron Rodgers at home.

Prediction: Packers 27, Browns 20

Colts (8-6) at Cardinals (10-4)

Saturday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Exactly who Cardinals don't want to see, especially after giving up a bunch of rushing yards to Detroit. Arizona is not the same without a healthy DeAndre Hopkins. Big night for Jonathan Taylor.

Prediction: Colts 28, Cardinals 20

Ravens (8-6) at Bengals (8-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 2 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Bengals thumped them in Baltimore and should be able to complete the sweep at home. They're desperate and coming off a big win at Denver. QB Tyler Huntley has been playing well for Baltimore.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 23

Chargers (8-6) at Texans (3-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chargers by 10. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Chargers have some significant players on the COVID-19 list, but have more than enough weapons to handle the Texans. As crowded as it is in the 8-6, 7-7 range in the AFC, the Chargers need to win out.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Texans 17

Bills (8-6) at Patriots (9-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Cole Beasley is out and that hurts the Bills. Buffalo can't run or stop the run, and that hurts. They're desperate, though, and this won't be played in the bizarre conditions of last one vs. Patriots.

Prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 20

Jaguars (2-12) at Jets (3-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jets by 1. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Jets' defense is awful, but Zach Wilson played pretty well against a solid Miami defense. But the Jets are missing some offensive weapons. Still, the Jaguars get manhandled by Houston?

Prediction: Jets 23, Jaguars 20

Lions (2-11-1) at Hawks (6-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 6. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Lions have won two of three — both impressive wins — but now Jared Goff is on the COVID-19 list. The Falcons get the edge anyway, plus they're at home. But the Lions should play them pretty close.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Lions 17

Buccaneers (10-4) at Panthers (5-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 10 1/2. O/U: 44.

The Panthers have big problems at quarterback, whether they go with an activated Sam Darnold or Cam Newton. Unless Tampa turns it over four times, it will be tough for the Panthers to score 20.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 13

Rams (10-4) at Vikings (7-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 491/2.

Depends on which Rams version shows up — the hot one, or the one prone to lulls? Vikings are formidable on offense, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and probably Adam Thielen. Still, L.A. is finding ways ...

Prediction: Rams 27, Vikings 23

Giants (4-10) at Eagles (7-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 10. O/U: 40 1/2.

The walking-wounded Giants shutting down Daniel Jones was an indication that's a wrap for this season. The Eagles are fighting for playoff spot and gathered momentum with four wins in five games.

Prediction: Eagles 35, Giants 17

Bears (4-10) at Seahawks (5-9)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Seahawks should win this on the strength of a better quarterback, better coaching staff and the fact that they're at home. Both of these franchises are hurting, though, and coming off a short week.

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Bears 17

Steelers (7-6-1) at Chiefs (10-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 7 1/2. O/U: 44.

The Chiefs are hot at right time, although they need to get back Travis Kelce and/or Tyreek Hill, both on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers do tend to play well at Arrowhead. With a full-ish roster, Chiefs win.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 23

Broncos (7-7) at Raiders (7-7)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 1. O/U: 41 1/2.

Both teams badly need to win, both still in the playoff hunt. Drew Lock might make the Denver offense a little more explosive than Teddy Bridgewater did, but increases the chance of turnovers.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Broncos 28

Washington Football Team (6-8) at Cowboys (10-4)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 10 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Washington hung in and made a fun run, but the team is getting banged up. Dak Prescott is still struggling for Dallas, but Tony Pollard coming back is an X-factor. Scoring will be tough for Washington.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Washington 17

Dolphins (7-7) at Saints (7-7)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 38 1/2.

Both defenses are smothering, but Tua Tagovailoa is a lot hotter than Taysom Hill. Miami is getting Jaylen Waddle back too. The Dolphins have won six in a row and keep it rolling in a slugfest.

Prediction: Dolphins 14, Saints 10

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