Sales of Covid tests have increased by a third this month, while official estimates of the number of people with the virus have also risen slightly.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said its surveillance showed a slight increase in cases and hospital admissions, including those in intensive care, as of 20 July. Its records show that 3.7% of 4,403 respiratory specimens were identified as Covid-19, compared with 3.6% of 4,535 two weeks prior.
Boots also said its sales of tests had increased by 33% between 16 July and 22 July, compared with the previous three weeks.
The Zoe Health Study, which takes its data from people self-reporting, estimates that there were 606,602 people with symptomatic Covid on 4 July, a number that had risen to 789,695 by 28 July. This is still well below the 1,678,854 peak of 30 December and the 2,993,830 peak on 18 July last year.
Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist for immunisation at the UKHSA, said: “Covid-19 cases and hospital admission rates remain at low levels, though have risen very slightly in the past two weeks. We will continue to monitor these rates closely. The NHS will be in contact in autumn 2023 when the seasonal vaccine is available for those who are eligible due to health conditions or age.
“Remember that the virus can cause serious illness, especially for those who are older or immunosuppressed, so we urge everyone who is offered the vaccine to take up.”
Nearly 5 million people use Zoe’s app to report Covid symptoms and test results, the company says, and of these, it estimates that there are 59,357 daily new cases, the greatest proportion of which are in Wales and Cornwall.
Prof Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, told the Times the recent rise may be a result of waning immunity and the cooler, wetter weather pushing more people indoors.
Dr Chris Smith, a consultant virologist and lecturer based at Cambridge University, said the numbers could even paint a potentially positive picture. “I’m not worried. In fact, I’m reassured by this kind of data, because it tells us we have a finger on the numerical pulse of what’s happening with disease outbreaks and so on. But also, these numbers are very low in comparison to where we were in previous years,” he told Sky News.
He added: “The key metric to pay attention to is: is this translating into more people going into hospital and, heaven forbid, more people losing their lives? And the answer is, both those latter numbers, although they have shown a small uptick recently, remain much, much lower than they have been historically.”
Smith said people had become less protected against other illnesses as a side-effect of the lockdowns that were necessary to save lives during the pandemic. “When we have lockdowns, what we did was to break the cycle of infection and therefore immunisation that was going on naturally. So a lot of people have become vulnerable to things that previously they wouldn’t have noticed they were having,” he said.
