There isn’t much to complain about with the way the New Orleans Saints have built their roster — the black and gold run deep at wide receiver and defensive back, with a decade’s worth of first-round picks invested in the offensive and defensive lines, and two experienced passers on top of the depth chart at quarterback. They’ve got blue-chip talent at defensive tackle, linebacker, and running back, too. But a chain is only strong as its weakest link. And depth could be better in the backfield behind Alvin Kamara.
Enter Antonio Gibson. The third-year Washington Commanders running back started off on a tear after turning pro out of Memphis (where he played wide receiver), averaging 61.1 rushing yards per game and scored 18 touchdown runs through his first two seasons (at a respectable clip of 4.3 yards per carry). He’s also caught 78 passes in his first 30 games to average 18.0 receiving yards per game, scoring 3 touchdown receptions along the way. That’s two back-to-back seasons with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns scored.
But things have taken a strange downturn for him in 2022. Gibson has been playing on Washington’s third-string offense in training camp and begun returning kicks for the first time in his pro career as the Commanders coaching staff turns its attention to other players like rookie draft pick Brian Robinson and veterans J.D. McKissic and Jonathan Williams. Part of the problem is ball security. Gibson only fumbled once in his 2020 rookie season, but fumbled six times in 2021, and that appears to have damaged the trust his coaches have had in him despite his impressive all-around skills.
When asked about the vision for Gibson in their offense, Commanders head coach Ron Rivera offered ESPN’s John Keim a nebulous response of “We have to get him the ball in space.” They’re acknowledging that the player hasn’t been used in the best ways possible, but burying him on the depth chart doesn’t inspire much confidence about the solution. All but 3 of his snaps this preseason have begun in the backfield. Last year, just 7.7% of his snaps began in the slot or out wide. The year before, that was the case on just 8.8% of his plays. Rivera is admitting the problem but not much action is being taken to resolve it.
They aren’t exactly protecting Gibson from a heavy workload in these preseason games, either. He’s seen 36 snaps on offense through two exhibition games, leading all of Washington’s running backs and ranking 11th-most among all skills position players (wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs). Alvin Kamara still hasn’t dressed for a Saints preseason game. Neither has Mark Ingram. Typically the players who spend the most time on the field in these exhibition matches aren’t the ones valued highest by their teams. Playing so many snaps could be a sign that the team is talking itself into a reason to keep them on the roster.
If that’s the case for Gibson, the Saints would be smart to give Washington a call and see if he’s available in a trade. Six fumbles in a single season is far from ideal (Kamara has only fumbled seven times in his career), and it only took one fumble in a preseason game for undrafted rookie Abram Smith to earn Dennis Allen’s ire, but it doesn’t look so bad in context. Gibson had a career-high 300 touches last season, and he doesn’t have a long history of putting the ball on the ground. Odds are this was an aberration that Rivera’s staff is overreacting to.
New Orleans’ lacking depth at running back is obvious. Kamara is a stud, but he’s at his best when he isn’t doing everything on his own. Ingram is a decent backup at this stage in his career, but he’s turning 33 in December and is playing out the last year of his contract. The group lacks a big-play threat — Dwayne Washington (2.1 yards per carry on 9 attempts in two preseason games), Tony Jones Jr. (4.2 yards per carry on 11 attempts), and Smith (3.4 yards per carry on 16 attempts) haven’t shown much behind them. The longest single run any of them have produced is a 9-yard pickup from Smith. They don’t have enough juice. Compare that to Gibson, who produced 21 carries of 10-plus yards in 2020 and 24 of them in 2021.
So adding Gibson to the mix would be a real shot in the arm. The 24-year old has played really well up to this point in his young career, and pairing him with Kamara could make for the NFL’s most dynamic tandem at running back. Both players can run well out of the zone scheme New Orleans favors (71% of the Saints’ rushing attempts this preseason have come out of zone, as did 72% of Gibson’s rushes last year) while lining up all over the formation to run routes as receivers. If he continues to struggle with ball security, the team can minimize his role, but it’s something that should clean up as he gains more experience playing the position. Remember, he was a receiver in college.
What about the cost to acquire him? That’s unclear, but Washington shouldn’t be asking for a lot given how far they’ve pushed Gibson down the depth chart. I wouldn’t think New Orleans has to spend more than a late-round pick in 2023 (when they have selections in rounds four, five, and seven) or 2024 (with picks in rounds four, five, and six). That’s easily worth the opportunity to add a versatile big-play threat on a rookie contract. His current deal runs out in 2024, when Kamara will be 29 years old with a $16.9 million cap hit. If the Saints can acquire Gibson for a modest asset now and evaluate him over the next two seasons, maybe he convinces them to go in a different direction at that inflection point with Kamara.
But we’re really putting the cart before the horse there. At the end of the day, these things are true: the non-Kamara Saints running backs haven’t done much to move the needle through the summer, Gibson is being weirdly undervalued by his current team, and New Orleans has plenty of future picks to spend should they so choose. They also have a history of making trades around this time of the year, having recently added cornerback Bradley Roby, long snapper Jon Dorenbos, and linebacker Kiko Alonso in the late August-early September window. Deadlines spur action, and there’s one more preseason game left to play before the big wave of roster cuts next week. Maybe Gibson could land with the Saints, too, once they’ve seen how things play out around the league.
