Experts advised Boris Johnson that the UK would need "multiple" circuit-breaker lockdowns to stop the spread of coronavirus during the winter, it has emerged.
Members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) had previously called for a two-week circuit breaker to help stop the spread of the virus in September, but were reportedly ignored by ministers.
According to researchers at the University of Warwick, for a circuit breaker to be effective it would probably need to be imposed twice over the space of a few months.
Alternatives also included for a circuit-breaker to be followed by a longer-term period with measures in place to help keep the R rating at or below 1, documents say.
The circuit-breaker lockdown suggested by officials said that pubs, bars and restaurants would be closed but compensated, and that people would be banned from mixing with anyone not in their household or bubble and told to stay at home as much as possible.
Only essential work and travel would be allowed, people would work from home if they can (as they already are), non-essential offices and shops would close, and people would be told not to go on holiday.
In the same documents released by SAGE yesterday (October 30) it emerged there are around four times as many people catching Coronavirus than anticipated.
The figures are worse than a “reasonable worst case scenario” planned for by officials.
In minutes from the 61st meeting of the government advisory group on October 8th, scientists warned there could be up to 100 deaths a day in the next two weeks.
SAGE said: “In England the numbers of infections and hospital admissions exceed the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario (RWCS) planning levels at this time. Near-term projections indicate the number of deaths is highly likely to exceed RWCS planning levels within the next two weeks.
“Well over 100 new deaths per day are projected to occur within 2 weeks, even if strict new interventions are put in place immediately.”
The finding’s come just a few weeks after Labour leader Keir Starmer called for the brief lockdown to help prevent a “sleepwalk into…a bleak winter.”
In the same documents experts said: “If the growth rate r remains large (between 0.07-1.4) then even severe social-distancing during the 2-week circuit breaker will not prevent a major loss of life. Combining a low background growth rate with a strong circuit breaker would seem the most viable option."
They also said: “While a single circuit breaker has the potential to keep prevalence much lower than no intervention, it is not a long-term solution.
"Long-term control of the virus will likely require repeated circuit breaks, or for one to be followed by a longer-term period with measures in place to keep R at or below 1.
Instead of taking the advice from scientists for the circuit breaker, Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, decided to implement a three-tier approach at the start of October, which included regional restrictions in the worst hit areas.
He previously said this was the best way to avoid the “misery” of a second national lockdown.
