Sir Sadiq Khan is in pole position to win a fourth term as Mayor of London, according to a new poll.
The Savanta UK survey for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, put Labour’s candidate in the mayoral race on 33%, the Tories 18%, Reform UK 18%, Green Party 17%, Liberal Democrats nine per cent, and other candidates six per cent.
Sir Sadiq has signalled that he will decide next year whether to seek re-election in 2028.
But the burning question remains: Could anyone beat him?
The poll suggests Labour would be strongly favoured to win the mayoral election after second preference votes are transferred.
Despite Labour’s popularity having nosedived nationally under Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership, the Right-leaning voting block in the capital still appears to be significantly smaller than the total of Left-leaning voters.
The Conservatives and Reform are both on 18% in the mayoral race, according to the poll, making a total of 36%.
Put the Labour (33%) and Green vote (17%) together and you get 50%.
The Lib-Dem vote, of nine per cent, may split between the Right and Left.
Voting patterns have also changed over the years, from the traditional two party system, with the fragmentation of British politics.
With Labour ahead in London, the contest appears to be very much which other party will get to the two-way run-off when second preference votes already cast are counted.
If it is either the Tories or Reform, it is difficult to see how they can get over the 50% mark to gain the keys to City Hall - unless of course one of these parties can reach across into traditionally more Left-leaning and centrist territory in the capital.
For years the Tories have been in search of this candidate, having found this individual once, in the form of Boris Johnson, on the liberal wing of the Conservative Party, despite him later backing Brexit.
Environmentalist Zac Goldsmith, the former Conservative MP for Richmond Park, also had the potential in the 2016 contest to win over Londoners who traditional Tories may have struggled to reach.
But rather than highlighting his strengths, including his Green credentials, his campaign was dominated by attacks on Sir Sadiq and he lost.
Shaun Bailey may have run Sir Sadiq closer in 2021 if he had had full backing from the Conservative Party.
Now, former London Assembly member Sir James Cleverly has emerged as the early frontrunner to be the Tory candidate for 2028.
The Braintree MP and ex-Home Secretary appears to tick many of the boxes for the type of candidate that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is seeking.
But it is not yet clear whether he can reach into Labour territory, as a Tory-leaning business figure or an individual like former Conservative minister Rory Stewart might be able to do.
It is also possible that the run-off could be between Labour’s candidate and the contender from Zack Polanski’s Green Party, which surged in London during the May local elections.
Alternatively it could be Labour v Reform, the only party to have so far selected its mayoral candidate, Laila Cunningham, the former Westminster councillor who defected from the Tories.
But it is difficult to see how Reform could pick up enough support beyond its core backers to win the mayoralty.
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL, told The Standard: “We don't know who the Tories or Greens will stand but if one of them stands someone strong then it could become interesting.
“Labour's lead isn't huge and is well south of 50% so a strong candidate could make inroads.”
But ultimately it looks like Sir Sadiq’s to win or lose.
* Savanta interviewed 1,038 adult Londoners online between 30th June and July 8th. Data are weighted.
