The conjecture is over, the blustering complete. It’s time for the Ryder Cup to begin and for me to start sweating all the bets I’ve made.
In August, I bet the U.S. to beat Europe at -135 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. The U.S. is now -145 at FanDuel and Europe is +165.
While the U.S. isn’t as deep as previous years, their top players are better than Europe’s top players, with nine ranking in the top 14 in true strokes gained over the last six months compared to five for Europe.
U.S. captain Keegan Bradley will likely ride the top guys for most of the tournament, which many past European captains have done with much success. Bethpage Black provides a physical challenge that will make it tough for most players to compete in all five sessions, but even if the majority of the top guys play in four, the U.S. should be good.
This is important context to understand, because when I was making my bets, it's the storyline I followed.
I believe Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau are going to have to be workhorses for Bradley. Collin Morikawa, who has struggled all season, needs to be hidden, like Sepp Straka and Rasmus Hojgaard will be on the Euro side.
European captain Luke Donald will have to pick his spots for Justin Rose to play. At 45, he remains a lion, but shouldn’t play more than three sessions. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood will all play four or more sessions.
These are my beliefs, which shaped all my bets. Tail or fade appropriately.
Ryder Cup Best Bets
USA Tournament Four-Balls Winner -105 (FanDuel)
The U.S. has historically dominated this format. This was the only session it won in Rome, outscoring Europe 4½–3½, and it also won 5–3 at home in the 2021 Ryder Cup. At the 2024 Presidents Cup, the U.S. beat the International team 8–1 in fourball. Many of those pairings should remain the same for this match.
Obviously this European team is different, but the U.S. has a ton of guys who can make birdies and that’s what wins in this format. This is my favorite bet of the week.
Robert MacIntyre More Points Than Collin Morikawa (+112)
This one comes from my colleague Iain MacMillan, but I must say, I love it.
Based on sheer opportunity, MacIntyre is the play. My guess is he plays in four sessions after going 2–0–1 in Rome. Morikawa, as I said, will likely only play in two or three sessions.
Why? Morikawa is a shorter hitter, which is a disadvantage at Bethpage, and he is coming off a down season where he struggled around and on the greens. That’s where Ryder Cups are won and lost. Bradley will try to keep Morikawa out of that pressure cooker as much as he can.
MacIntyre was a little streaky this year, but he finished second at the U.S. Open at Oakmont, and while this setup isn't the same, it's a similar style course and I think he should feel comfortable.
Ryder Cup Day 1 Prediction
U.S. Day 1 Four-balls Winner +115 (FanDuel)
With a ton of rain falling on Bethpage on Thursday, the course should play soft on Friday’s opening round. There’s even a chance preferred lies could be implemented, which makes hitting it close easier.
With that in mind, I’ll double down on my four-ball prediction and take the U.S. to win the first session with plus-money odds. I think DeChambeau, Scheffler, Cam Young, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and our other birdie machines come out hot in the afternoon session and give the U.S. the lead heading into Day 2.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ryder Cup Best Bets and Day 1 Prediction for Bethpage Black.
