April 04--Mike McCarthy's anxiety mushroomed beyond normal game-week levels in January every time he entered the Packers' training room to check on Aaron Rodgers' strained left calf.
The 10th-year head coach knows what's at stake when it comes to excellent quarterback play. Rodgers has lifted McCarthy's team by playing at a Hall-of-Fame level over the last six seasons, and the Packers have five division titles, 70 regular-season victories and a Super Bowl ring to show for it.
But McCarthy also endured losing Rodgers to a broken collarbone in 2013, resulting in an 0-for-November skid that nearly sent the Packers tumbling over the playoff cliff before Rodgers returned and saved the season. It was a jarring reminder that when the quarterback falters, a trap door can open beneath even the most accomplished teams.
"Aaron ... gives us the ability to be very aggressive in what we do (offensively), and it's a lot of fun from that perspective," McCarthy said last month.
Fun for the quarterback-haves sure, but misery for the have-nots. And with the NFL draft in Chicago approaching, the Packers' example underscores an emerging truth: The NFL is a passing league without enough consistently good passers to satisfy the trend.
Collegiate prospects aren't poised to fill the shortage any time soon either. The proliferation of spread offenses in college has fostered quarterbacks who haven't developed the pocket-passing abilities common to NFL success. Grooming them requires patience, a virtue to which many teams seem allergic.
It's a powerful lens in front of Ryan Pace's eyes as he prepares for his first draft as Bears general manager. Since Pace was hired Jan. 8, he has expressed how vital a quarterback is to sustaining success while calling it the most difficult position to evaluate and fill.
So although the Bears are proceeding this season with incumbent Jay Cutler, Pace's search for a long-term solution will continue.
"It's a good idea to add a quarterback every year," Pace said in late March. "You can take a swing every year at it and increase your odds."
That could mean an early-round pick, a late one or a college free agent. Pace overlapped with Tony Romo as a player at Eastern Illinois -- not long before Romo went from undrafted free agent to Cowboys star -- so he knows that continuing to spin the wheel for a quarterback can pay off.
Finding that treasure, though, can require navigating a minefield with various levels of investment and risk.
Jack Del Rio was the Jaguars coach for eight seasons before the team drafted quarterback Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in 2011. Del Rio was fired before the end of Gabbert's rookie year and Gabbert, who ran a spread at Missouri, was traded after three busted seasons.
"If you don't have a healthy respect for the importance of that position, you'll get one soon," said Del Rio, now the Raiders coach. "Having good production from that position, it's kind of like the engine -- it makes it all go."
Draft likely QB source
It's rare for an established star quarterback to change teams in the NFL, and Pace already cashed one lottery ticket in 2006 when he helped bring Drew Brees to the Saints. That leaves the college ranks as the probable source of a solution.
But annually, it seems, a star collegiate quarterback reignites questions about how spread offenses affect NFL readiness. Two recent examples are former Heisman Trophy winners Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel, who haven't done enough in the pros to quiet them.
This year's case: Oregon's Marcus Mariota, a 6-foot-4, 222-pound package of athleticism, charisma and super-duper character. He too has the Heisman in tow.
But Mariota is not the consensus No. 1 draft pick. That projection belongs to Florida State's Jameis Winston, another Heisman winner whose success as a pocket passer in a pro-style offense has fueled his ascent despite a rape allegation for which he never was formally charged and a shoplifting citation while in college.
"It's a huge transition," NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. "Basically, you're talking about taking a kid who's in kindergarten and moving them to a college-level class almost overnight. That's how hard it is to pick up the verbiage, go under center, (learn proper) footwork."
The Buccaneers are widely expected to call Winston's name shortly after the draft begins at the Auditorium Theatre on April 30. That would leave quarterback-needy teams near the top of the draft -- including the Bears at No. 7 --to consider how Mariota projects to the NFL, where the reads, footwork and decision-making are more advanced than what he did at Oregon.
"You have to watch a lot of tape of those guys to feel good with it," Pace said. "We've done enough research on him where I think he's a good quarterback. That doesn't scare me away from him at all."
Of course, Pace might not have the chance to draft Mariota. Despite a growing list of first-round busts, quarterbacks are valued enough that a team likely will bet on Mariota's intangibles and ability before the Bears pick.
But on the chance Mariota is available with the seventh pick, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper envisions a productive fit, given the dynamics in Chicago. As the Bears see how Cutler performs under new coordinator Adam Gase, Mariota could spend a year getting acclimated to the pro game.
"Mariota needs time," Kiper said, "and he would be afforded that opportunity with the Bears."
If Pace isn't compelled to pick him or doesn't get the chance, he would have to contemplate how this year's quarterback class clearly drops off after Mariota.
On Day 2 the names change, but the questions don't. Baylor's Bryce Petty and UCLA's Brett Hundley require similar projections and seasoning.
"They have a long way to go to become pocket quarterbacks," said Mayock, who praised Petty's natural throwing mechanics. "They don't throw with anticipation. If the first look isn't there, both of them are hesitant and indecisive, which leads to sacks and other problems.
"You want to say you're going to need at least a redshirt year as a second- or third-round draft pick, but what they need is live snaps, not seven-on-seven snaps in practice. It's a really difficult issue."
Complementary game
Given the disconnect between college and the pros, it's no wonder some veteran quarterbacks have such staying power.
Whether it's Cutler, Mark Sanchez or former Bear Josh McCown -- who was guaranteed $6.25 million to sign with the Browns last month -- pro coaches tend to cling to quarterbacks who have flashed any success. In their minds the less uncertainty, the better, especially in a business filled with pressure to play high draft picks immediately.
So how can the have-nots stay afloat?
"Football-wise, there are things you can do in coaching to minimize some of the exposure," Bears coach John Fox said. "Playing defense (and) playing complementary football is going to be something that helps."
Fox mentioned how the Cowboys handled Romo in 2014, changing their play-calling to a run-heavy attack. Expect a similar move with Cutler and the Bears offense.
Pace has studied how the Seahawks rose to prominence behind a strong ground game and great defense while continuing to explore quarterback possibilities. They signed Matt Flynn -- Rodgers' backup in Green Bay -- to a three-year, $26 million contract in March 2012, only to draft Russell Wilson in the third round the following month. They hit with Wilson and less than two years later hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
For the Bears to be that well positioned will require deft roster management over time, but Pace's plan is underway. While the Bears keep building he will keep swinging.
"It's not easy," Kiper said. "That's why when you get the quarterback you're so far ahead of everyone else."
rcampbell@tribpub.com
