The Indians might have a difficult task ahead of them over the course of the next several seasons, trying to balance their competitive window with a payroll not far from their financial ceiling.
The recent fire sale involving the Miami Marlins and their new ownership, though, might illustrate the type of opportunity from which the Indians could benefit.
The Marlins' ownership group, which includes Derek Jeter, has already shipped away 2017 Most Valuable Player Giancarlo Stanton in a deal that was mostly to cut costs. Then, outfielder Marcell Ozuna and second baseman Dee Gordon were each traded for prospects.
Those moves bring much of the attention to outfielder Christian Yelich, now the most valuable asset left on the Marlins' big-league roster. According to an ESPN report, Yelich's agent would like him to be traded soon. For a team looking to add talent without breaking the bank, and as one that has assets available in the minor leagues, this is the kind of move with which the Indians can get aggressive.
Yelich has a career .290/.369/.432 slash line and has been a 4.5-fWAR player in three of the past four seasons. Among qualified outfielders, his 15.9 fWAR over the past four seasons ranks ninth in baseball. He also owns a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger Award in that time.
Perhaps as important to his value on the trade market is that he just turned 26 years old and his contract runs through 2021 with a club option for 2022, meaning it coincides with the Indians' competitive window.
For the next four seasons, Yelich is owed a combined $44.5 million guaranteed, making it a market-friendly deal, particularly for a player who should be entering his prime years. His deal breakdown by year: $7 million, $9.75 million, $12.5 million and $14 million. There is a $15 million club option with a $1.25 million buyout for the fifth season.
With this group of players, there's an expectation that the Indians can consistently contend through 2020, potentially 2021. But it will be a balancing act of talent and salaries for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff.
The Indians are in a position of knowing they can compete this season and needing to take full advantage of it, but also wanting to keep that competitive window open for the 2-3 years after 2018. It's an opportunity to be aggressive, but also while keeping one eye trained on the future beyond this calendar year. The Indians know they can win now, and this might be their best shot. It can't be wasted, but it might be difficult to go all-in if it means sacrificing potential opportunities with much of this group still intact.
Maybe the biggest issue the Indians' front office is currently facing is the question of how to add talent to the roster over the next several seasons while also retaining several key players who can hit the free-agent market, such as Andrew Miller and Cody Allen after this season. It's clear the Indians are at the very least nearing their financial ceiling. Maybe there will be some room, but how much?
Looking at the Indians' outlook through 2020 or 2021, some players at various points will have their lucrative long-term deals come off the books, which alleviates some of the pressure. But much of that will be offset by increasing salaries for other contracts and spiking arbitration costs to pay younger players. There isn't a lot of relief on the way, barring a trade.
Because of this, it's possible that even Yelich's deal is too much of a burden as the Indians try to retain some current players. But the value-per-dollar remains strong.
The list of key players the Indians can keep through at least the 2020 season if they exercise club options is extensive. It includes Francisco Lindor (2021), Corey Kluber (2021), Carlos Carrasco (2020), Edwin Encarnacion (2020), Jose Ramirez (2023), Jason Kipnis (2020), Trevor Bauer (2020), Danny Salazar (2020), Roberto Perez (2022), Yan Gomes (2021), Yonder Alonso (2020) and Bradley Zimmer (2023), among several others.
Simply keeping all of their key assets in Cleveland as many of those players' salaries increase each year will be hard enough. Adding outside talent to try to keep up with the Houston Astros and New York Yankees to remain near the top of the American League might prove to be even more difficult.
Which brings us back to a situation like Yelich's as one the Indians can target.
He isn't a perfect fix for the 2018 Indians as currently constructed, as they certainly don't need another left-handed-hitting outfielder with Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall and Zimmer on the roster. But depth is never a bad thing if you can afford it and Yelich would provide an upgrade over Chisenhall and it's difficult to trust Brantley's health at this point.
The real fit would be beyond this season, from 2019 to 2021 or 2022. Brantley and Chisenhall are both eligible for free agency after this season, meaning their combined $17.5875 million can come off the books. The Indians have the corner outfield spots covered right now, but Yelich would already fill a potential hole starting in 2019 and would provide an upgrade in 2018.
This type of a trade would still fit the Indians' pattern of player procurement. It would cost the Indians some precious assets, likely in the form of some top prospects, but it wouldn't be for a one-year rental. It's a power move, but it isn't yet putting all of their chips on the table.
Yelich has primarily played center field and left field. It's a safe bet that he could handle the transition to right field. Brantley could also shift over to right field _ if he's healthy.
Yelich won't come cheaply, of course. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres have all been reported to have shown interest in Yelich this offseason but the Indians do have the ammunition to make a deal.
Yelich is a valuable, consistent investment who might be available on the trade market and one that won't break the bank with his current contract. The front office's toughest task over the next several years will be how to maintain their current 90-plus win expectations while managing an inflated budget and the highest payroll in franchise history.
Perhaps the Indians can instead find a super-bargain with free-agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, for instance, who somehow is still available. Cain is fifth among qualified outfielders since 2014 with 19.0 fWAR. It's becoming likelier every day that whoever does sign Cain will receive a solid return on their investment well short of his expected price tag from a few months ago. Perhaps the Indians can try to wedge a free-agent signing into the mix as teams across the league balk at lucrative deals. It might push the Indians into a move they weren't expecting to make, but one that makes too much sense based on value. Then again, it was indicated that there likely wouldn't be another major signing after the Alonso addition.
Perhaps, instead, it will simply involve keeping as many current assets in Cleveland for as long as possible and hoping that's enough. Perhaps that actually will be enough, but the Indians might need to look for other opportunities. It could be taking advantage of an ice-cold free-agent market. Or, it could be that trading for a talented player such as Yelich might provide the blueprint they need.
