The flow of Russian tourists started to slow before the mutiny in Moscow last weekend, but more long-stay travellers might flock to Thailand if the political tension escalates, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta).
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) directed its Moscow office to closely monitor the situation and market movements in the short term.
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of Atta, said arrivals from Russia had dropped to around 2,000 daily in June, from 4,000-5,000 per day in recent months, as the high season for this market has already passed.
The Tourism and Sports Ministry reported 784,428 Russian arrivals this year, as of June 25. The tally was third behind visitors from Malaysia and China, which hit 1.98 million and 1.38 million, respectively.
Mr Sisdivachr said political unrest in Russia might not affect the volume over the next few months, but if the Russian ruble slumps further, after hitting a 15-month low on Monday, the average spending among the segment is expected to be affected.
He said the rebellion might not be negative for Thai tourism, as previous forecasts assumed the Russia-Ukraine war would weigh on the number of visitors, but the market has been strong until this year.
"Economic impacts stemming from political uncertainties in Russia would definitely affect middle-income earners. However, those with high spending power are seeking long-stay trips overseas," said Mr Sisdivachr.
"Many of them purchased properties in southern Thailand this year and more of them are considering buying a second home here to escape from possible unrest in the future."
TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn said the authority's Moscow office was monitoring the situation in Russia, particularly incidents that could affect people's travel decisions.
The mutiny in Russia occurred just after the TAT and companies wrapped up their marketing roadshow "Amazing Thailand Roadshow to CIS 2023" in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, between June 19-23.
Reports from the TAT Moscow office last weekend indicated international transport was not disrupted and people were travelling to and from Moscow as normal.
However, the TAT has a business continuity plan in place and will use it in case of an emergency, preparing an alternative site in another country easily connected by flights, such as the United Arab Emirates.
