Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
World
Alahna Kindred

Russia Ukraine war: Seven possible ways to end invasion from diplomacy to assassination

The invasion of Ukraine has continued to escalate at a worrying rate after Russian troops shelled Europe's largest nuclear power plant.

There have been a raft of worrying developments today, including the Nato chief saying Russia is dropping deadly cluster bombs and Russia's new law imposing a jail time of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally "fake" news about the military.

Authorities have also claimed that the Russian military killed 47 people in airstrikes using cluster bombs on the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv.

A fire broke out near radioactive material at the Zaporizhzhia power station in south east Ukraine in the early hours of the morning.

It has since been seized by Russian military forces after a fierce battle overnight and the fire has been extinguished.

Experts have assured that no radioactive material was released, but the thought of Russian leader Vladimir Putin gaining control of nuclear power plants sparked fears about how far this war will go.

For all the live updates from the Russian invasion follow our live blog

Russian forces launched a massive strike on local government headquarters in the centre of Ukraine's second city Kharkiv (Photo Press Service / Avalon)

We've laid out a few possible scenarios after speaking to Dr Aglaya Snetkov, a lecturer in the International Politics of Russia at UCL.

Could the war end with negotiations?

Dr Snetkov says this is the most desired outcome but doesn't make it the simplest.

She says if a format for negotiations were laid out beyond the humanitarian corridors then both sides would need to make concessions - and neither appear to be backing down.

Furthermore, she adds that if Russia wants the sanctions against them to be lifted then a third party - who represents the West - would have to have a seat at the table.

Dr Snetkov told The Mirror: "And at this stage, the Ukrainians are putting up an incredibly good fight against Russian forces but the Russians have also not lost.

"Chances are the Russians expected to have such fallout and they didn’t expect the war to take this long, but the Russians are still going all on.

“We don’t know what is efficient. If there are negotiations then lifting of sanctions could be part of it and if it is then it is important to keep in mind here we are talking about three negotiating parties: Russia, Ukraine and the West.

“We have Putin, Zelensky and the West, and at the moment we don’t have a format for negotiations between all three.

“All three sides will have to make concessions, and the West will be pushing for punishment.

“Negotiations so far are bilateral between Ukraine and Russia, but if sanctions are going to be lifted there will need to be a representative from the West, but who will that be? Someone from Nato or the EU? We are nowhere near that stage.”

An image grab from footage obtained from a livestream from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Authority (ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR AUTHORITY/A)

What is the likelihood of a short-term war compared to a long-term war?

Dr Snetkov said it isn't clear how to determine what is a short conflict but the biggest question is trying to understand what Putin wants from his invasion of Ukraine.

He claims it is a "special military operation" to "deNazify" Ukraine but apart from that his goals remain unclear.

She said: “Are they really aiming to control and execute regime change in Ukraine - that might take up to a year.

“Problem is that the Russians are focusing on eastern Ukraine and parts of central Ukraine like Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivering an address in Kyiv (UKRAINE PRESIDENCY/AFP via Getty)

“In the scenario where Russia wants a regime change in the country they would put a puppet government in control, but half of Ukraine isn’t under Russian control.

“That set-up might genuinely split Ukraine down the middle. What happens then? Does Lviv become the capital of ‘Free Ukraine’?

“And then are we potentially talking about two countries and then we’d still have an internal insurgency in Ukraine."

She added that if Putin did in fact force a regime change then internal fighting would continue.

Dr Snetkov said: "If Russia in terms of military operation is seeking to have a regime change then we are still talking about internal fighting.

“We will probably no longer be concerned about nuclear fall out between Europe and Russia.

“The conflict will lower down and the interest that the rest of the world pays to the issue will decrease, but that doesn’t mean the situation will get better.”

If the war were to continue beyond a year, it could come down to how long the West will provide assistance to Ukraine.

Dr Snetkov said: "You do have scenarios where wars do become endemic. In that situation, Russia will continue to be under sanctions.

“Ukraine will continue to get Western support, but we don’t know if that will carry on after five, six, or 10 years?

“We also don't know the extent to which the EU and Nato will change its focus, as they have members like Poland who will continue caring because it is in their backyard and so there will be pressure from within these groups."

This image shows the devastation of a Russian strike against local government headquarters in Ukraine (Photo Press Service / Avalon)
Armoured military vehicles with 'Z' markings are seen on the street in Kherson (via REUTERS)

Could this escalate into a nuclear war?

Dr Snetkov said she doesn't think it's likely nuclear weapons would actually be used, but if they were it wouldn't be on a large scale.

She said it would be done in a way to signal to other countries what Russia is capable of.

Dr Snetkov said: “They are not going to bomb London, there are short-range tactical weapons that would more likely be used.

"I am not diminishing the power of nukes but even in this unlikely scenario, the use of a very specific small range tactical weapon would be more signalling."

“At this stage, the Russians are not at war with Nato countries, it is not the Cold War.”

US State Secretary Antony Blinken (C) participates in a meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in a Foreign Ministers session in Brussels (Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

Would other countries fight alongside Ukraine within their borders?

Dr Snetkov explains right now Nato is reluctant to use a no fly zone because it would escalate things to becoming an active war with Russia.

She said: "It would change the conflict from being Russia and Ukraine to Russia and Nato.

“And Russia is trying to frame it this way and at the moment the West can still claim that Russia is attacking Ukraine and they are supporting them.

“Also operationally, Nato do not have much experience of having no fly zones over friendly territory, they are normally set up in a hostile territory.

“In no fly zones, you also target air force installation, but also ground installations so it is really complicated to do that on friendly terrain.

“You don’t want to target Ukraine installations and planes and it is very hard to execute and it is very likely to get messy if it happened."

Would the war end if Putin was ousted or taken out?

Dr Snetkov says it is highly unlikely troops would withdraw if someone else came into power in Russia regardless of whether he was assassinated or pressured to step down by the public.

She said: "If people rise up and remove him, there is no opposition in Russia, Putin has spent 20 years ensuring that.

“Who would take over? His nearest personnel who are part of his project."

Men walk past a residential building damaged in yesterday's shelling in the city of Chernihiv (AFP via Getty Images)

What if there was a successful assassination attempt on Zelensky?

Dr Snetkov thinks this would have the opposite effect.

She said: "I think at this stage it will galvanise the Ukrainian nation even more. I think that at this stage it could happen, however, if the Russians do this to put their own man in charge the war effort would continue.

“Russia could put a pro-Russia regime in Kyiv, but I don’t think assassinating Zelensky will get you there.

“He’s becoming incredibly good at becoming the human face of the Ukrainian push back against the Russians.

“The Ukrainian position would wobble but I don’t think it would end the war. They will just put someone else in place.

“The West would double down even more because it would be outrageous. If they did that it would be quite something.”

What about Putin's inner circle revolting against him?

Dr Snetkov said: “If Putin’s wider circle - the oligarchs - get squeezed there is potential for something to happen but at the top, his closest advisors are in on the war with him.

“If Putin were to fall it would be from the top down not bottom-up.”

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.