If a dangerous provocation is escalated in waters over which the parties make conflicting assertions, it may develop into an unexpected contingency. Russia and Ukraine should exercise self-restraint and work toward calming the situation.
The Russian Coast Guard has seized three Ukrainian Navy vessels after opening fire on them in the Black Sea near the Crimean Peninsula, a southern part of Ukraine that Russia annexed in 2014. Russia is said to intend to detain Ukrainian crew members for two months.
The Kerch Strait, where the confrontation took place, separates the peninsula from the Russian mainland.
Ukraine has denounced Russia's act as aggression, contending that freedom of navigation is guaranteed by an agreement concluded in 2003 with Russia.
The Russian side, on the other hand, has insisted that the three Ukrainian vessels intruded into Russia's territorial waters and Russian patrol boats fired shots at and captured them because they did not follow orders to stop.
In the first place, Russia's annexation of Crimea represents a change of status quo imposed with the use of military force. Therefore, the international community does not recognize the legitimacy of the annexation. Russia's moves to control the strait and block the navigation of vessels of other countries cannot be tolerated.
During U.N. Security Council sessions, the United States, Britain, France and other countries have lashed out at Russia and called for the immediate release of the Ukrainian crew members. They had every reason for speaking in this way.
Japan must take a stand
A matter of concern is that both Russia and Ukraine appear to have ulterior motives for needlessly ramping up tension and thus restoring the leadership power of their governments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has seen his public approval ratings drop due to the people's discontent with his pension reform initiative and an economic slump that was caused by sanctions from the United States and Europe. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, for his part, aims for reelection in a presidential election scheduled for next March, but he has fallen behind in public opinion surveys.
Following the incident, the Poroshenko administration imposed a 30-day state of martial law and called for areas adjacent to Russia to brace for war. Russia is showing moves to beef up its S-400 new-type antiaircraft missile system deployed on Crimea.
Both Russia and Ukraine must refrain from making moves that would fan military confrontation.
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced the cancellation of a meeting with Putin that had been scheduled in Argentina, citing as the reason that Russia has not complied with requests for the return of the seized Ukrainian ships and crew members.
Trump probably judged that it would be impossible to improve relations with Moscow even if he holds a summit meeting with Putin under circumstances in which the international community's criticism of Russia has been mounting.
Japan faces difficulties in dealing with Russia, too. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with Putin shortly. To make progress on the northern territories issue, it is essential to maintain a good relationship with Moscow.
On the other hand, Japan should definitely display its stance of upholding international order based on the rule of law as well as the freedom of navigation.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 1, 2018)
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