Russian President Vladimir Putin has put in place a system that will allow him to stay in office for a long time. It is feared that Putin will continue his high-handed rule, which will intensify confrontations with the United States and Europe. Countries concerned need to be more vigilant against such moves.
In Russia, a national referendum was held on legislation related to constitutional amendments, and it was approved with nearly 80% of the voters in favor.
The current Constitution prohibits the president from serving three consecutive terms of office. The most important point of the legislation is that it adds to the Constitution a provision to count as zero the total number of terms served by the incumbent and previous presidents.
Putin's current term is part of his total of four nonconsecutive terms. But the new system will reset Putin's total terms in office. The vote paved the way for Putin to stay in power for two more six-year terms totaling 12 years, meaning until he turns 83, after his current term expires in 2024. He himself has mentioned the possibility of running for a fifth term.
The amendments to the Constitution also include one to strengthen the authority of a presidential advisory body. There is a strong view that Putin will permanently rule the country as head of the advisory body even after his retirement from the post of president, thereby pulling the strings behind the scenes.
The problem is that the administration concealed the provision on the president's continued tenure from the main points of contention, emphasizing only proposals that the public would easily accept, such as guaranteed minimum wages. The number of proposed constitutional amendments reached 206, and the referendum was held to vote them up or down as a unified bundle.
Opinion surveys show that the pros and cons of Putin's continued tenure were divided. The approval of the legislation does not necessarily mean that the people have given their "endorsement" to his long-term rule.
Putin's approval rating is 60%, the lowest level in 20 years. The novel coronavirus has caused many infections and deaths, highlighting flaws in Russia's bureaucracy and health system.
Cracking down on opposition parties and tightening media control have resulted in political rigidity. Without political reform and structural transformation of the resource-dependent economy, Russia will not be able to get out of its stagnation.
Putin should face up to the fact that Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine and its overall military buildup are causing sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe, and worsening economic conditions. If Putin seeks long-term stability for his administration, it is indispensable to review his hard-line policy toward foreign countries.
The provision on territories in the legislation cannot be overlooked. It includes the prohibition of negotiations on territorial cession except for discussions of border demarcation, and the prohibition of distortion of historical facts. This could be used as a basis for a wild argument that there is no room to discuss the return of the northern territories to Japan.
Russia claims that the northern territories belong to Russia as a result of World War II. It is Russia that unilaterally broke the Japan-Soviet Neutrality Treaty and distorted the history of its participation in the war against Japan.
Japan must question Russia about its true motives behind this and make sure that the bilateral territorial negotiations will not be adversely affected by the constitutional amendments.
-- The original Japanese article appeared in The Yomiuri Shimbun on July 3, 2020.
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