NATO members are growing increasingly worried about Russia’s potential to attack alliance countries, especially the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, recently warned that Russia’s goals go beyond Ukraine and that the Baltic nations could be next. Kahl suggested that Russia might not need to launch a full-scale invasion but could instead use tactics like those seen during the 2014 takeover of Crimea, where soldiers in civilian clothing were sent in to create instability.
This approach, sometimes called the “little green men” strategy, could be used again to undermine the region. These concerns match statements made by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. During a recent visit, Rutte pointed out that Russia is rapidly increasing its weapons production. He noted that Russia could produce in three months what NATO produces in a full year, with estimates of 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles being built in 2024 alone.
According to Express, Rutte warned that this buildup could allow Russia to consider military action against NATO within five years. He also stressed the need for NATO allies to spend more on defense, highlighting that the United States currently carries too much of the financial burden. Rutte emphasized that all NATO members must contribute their fair share to ensure collective security.
Russia may want to take down NATO next
An independent report found by The Sun, referencing the German intelligence assessment, provided further details on possible Russian strategies. The report draws comparisons between current events and those leading up to World War II, suggesting that Putin’s actions resemble those of Hitler in terms of expansionist ambitions. Putin has openly stated his desire to restore the former Soviet Union’s borders, which goes beyond just controlling Ukraine.
The report suggests that a future Russian attack might follow historical military strategies, such as a northern strike through Estonia, aimed at splitting NATO forces and possibly connecting with Russian naval units in the Baltic Sea. Belarus’s strategic location near the Baltic states and Kaliningrad could also play a key role, potentially allowing Russia to create divisions within NATO territory.
Russia planning attack on NATO to test the Western alliance's joint defence, says Germany spy chief https://t.co/U8OuPM9Msx via https://t.co/rXY6XSUhKF
— Lajos F. Szaszdi (@LajosSzaszdi) June 11, 2025
The report highlights how important intelligence gathering and analysis are in today’s geopolitical landscape. It suggests that Germany’s decision to share warnings about Russian invasion plans serves two purposes: to prepare NATO for possible threats and to influence Russia’s decision-making by showing that NATO is increasing its defenses.
The report also raises concerns about NATO’s unity, particularly whether all members, especially in Europe, are fully committed to Article 5, the alliance’s core principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all. There are worries about the reliability of U.S. support for Article 5, especially given past comments from U.S. President Trump, who has been skeptical of NATO’s collective defense commitments.
