Russia has lost a third of the ground forces it sent to invade Ukraine, British intelligence revealed yesterday.
Vladimir Putin’s troops have suffered a series of military setbacks, repelled by Ukrainian resistance since Kremlin tanks and soldiers rolled over the border on February 24.
Estimates suggest more than 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, with thousands more wounded.
Kremlin forces are unlikely to make much progress in the next month, according to the Ministry of Defence’s latest assessment.
Speaking after talks with Nato foreign ministers in Berlin, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “Ukraine must win the battle in Ukraine.
“We must also win the struggle beyond Ukraine, the struggle to shape the future of the world.”
In a boost to fighters battling in the east – where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting since 2014 – the MoD said: “Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule.
“Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month while sustaining consistently high levels of attrition.
“Russia has now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed in February.”
It added: “Under the current conditions, Russia is unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days.”
Near the north-eastern city of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces have been on the attack since early this month, commanders said they believed Russia had been withdrawing troops to reinforce positions around Izium to the south.
The MoD said Putin’s troops were “constrained by degraded enabling capabilities, continued low morale and reduced combat effectiveness”.
It added: “Many of these capabilities cannot be quickly replaced or reconstituted and are likely to continue to hinder Russian operations in Ukraine.”
Nato’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg bolstered Ukraine’s hopes of victory.
He said: “Ukraine can win this war, Ukrainians are bravely defending their homeland.”
In a video link to Berlin, he told the foreign ministers’ meeting: “Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going as Moscow had planned.”
However, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky warned the situation in Donbas remained difficult.
“They are not stopping their efforts,” he said.
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