Weeks of Russian incursions into NATO skies have pushed the U.S.-led alliance to the brink of an explosive choice: strike back or stand down.
Why it matters: With peace talks frozen and nuclear threats flying, NATO and Russia are closer to a direct military confrontation than at any point since the Cold War.
- President Trump, long reluctant to confront Moscow, stunned allies this week by saying he supports shooting down Russian aircraft if the incursions continue.
- The Kremlin's response was a blunt one: shoot down a Russian jet, and war will follow.
The big picture: NATO officials believe Russia is deliberately testing the alliance's defenses — and its political will — with a wave of escalating provocations.
- Sept. 9-10: Nearly two dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace, forcing NATO to scramble fighter jets and engage enemy targets in allied airspace for the first time in its history.
- Sept. 13: A Russian drone lingered nearly an hour over Romanian territory.
- Sept. 19: Three Russian fighter jets flew 12 minutes into Estonian airspace with their transponders off — the most brazen violation yet.
On Thursday, U.S. fighter jets intercepted Russian warplanes near Alaska's air defense identification zone for the ninth time this year.
- Norway reported three separate Russian airspace violations this year — the first incursions in over a decade.
- Drone swarms forced multiple airports in Denmark to shut down this week. While the culprit has not yet been named, Denmark's prime minister declared that a "hybrid war" was underway on European soil.
Zoom in: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told "The Axios Show" on Wednesday night that the "very" weak NATO response had encouraged Putin to probe further.
- "They have to shoot down everything," Zelensky said, concurring with Trump. "If the jets are in your space, you have to block it."
- Zelensky said that not all NATO leaders were afraid to take such action, but most are. The reason, he said, is they think "Russia is crazy" — and "they are right."
The flipside: While some countries in NATO's eastern bloc want a stronger response, other allies are more cautious.
- French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told Axios that France believes it's time to discuss "strengthening our rules of engagement," but would "probably not go as far as shooting a plane" that crossed into NATO airspace, as happened with Estonia.
Between the lines: Rhetoric on all sides has grown red-hot in the wake of Trump's failed attempts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.
- In an extraordinary shift, Trump said Ukraine could win back all of its lost territory and even "go further" by seizing Russian land — a red line that has previously triggered furious reactions from Moscow.
- Zelensky told "The Axios Show" that if Russia won't end the war, officials working in the Kremlin should make sure they know where the nearest bomb shelter is.
- Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's hardline lieutenants, shot back with a nuclear threat for both Ukraine and the U.S. — warning that Russia has weapons "a bomb shelter won't protect against."
The bottom line: NATO allies are preparing for the unthinkable.
- Estonia is building miles of anti-tank trenches on the frontline, while France and Germany have ordered contingency plans to treat thousands of wounded soldiers per day.
- Both parties have an interest in averting the cataclysmic conflict. But as tensions soared this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared at the UN that NATO and Moscow are already "at war."
