Russia could still claim victory in Ukraine despite failing in its original objectives for its invasion, western officials said.
The west is preparing to support Ukraine for many months to come, even for the rest of the year, as Vladimir Putin continues to “redefine” what would be a “win” for him, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
When the Russian president’s troops invaded Ukraine on 24 February, their aim was to seize Kyiv. But they failed to achieve that goal and recently refocused efforts on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, after having suffered set-backs in the form of huge logistical challenges and strong Ukrainian resistance.
Russia is set to mark Victory Day on 9 May, when it commemorates the surrender of Nazi Germany, and the date is seen as significant with analysts suggesting Mr Putin may make an announcement about the Ukraine war then.
“Putin has clearly failed in meeting his initial pre-war objectives, but is still in a position to win,” the official said.
Despite the failings of his troops, a “sufficient” number of them could be in the position to “surround a significant proportion of Ukraine’s forces”, the official added.
Success for Russia might be the consolidation of Russian control over the Donbas and the creation a land bridge with Crimea, the official said, and – in what he termed a worst-case scenario – there could be another attempt to attack Kyiv.
Seizing the capital city “would be enough for Putin to claim it as a win ... as winning is a term that is slightly mobile in Russia’s narrative”, he said.
The official added that despite these possible outcomes, the invasion of Ukraine would remain a strategic mistake for Russia, given the substantial losses its army has suffered and the way the war has changed Europe’s security architecture to Mr Putin’s detriment.
“It has been a strategic blunder for Russia,” he said.
Another western official said that Russia had started to address some of the issues that had hindered its army at the start of the invasion, but the way in which forces were manoeuvring, often in long columns with exposed flanks, was still causing them problems.
The west is “now gearing up” to keep giving support such as weapons to Ukraine for a “prolonged period of conflict” with Russia, possibly “much of the rest of the year”, the officials said.
