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The Guardian - UK

Sport

Barry Glendenning

Rugby World Cup preview No17: Ireland

Ireland: Rugby World Cup preview with Graham Henry

Fixtures

Sat 19 Sep Ireland v Canada, Millennium Stadium, 2.30pm

Sun 27 Sep Ireland v Romania, Wembley Stadium, 4.45pm Sun 4 Oct Ireland v Italy, Olympic Stadium, 4.45pm

Sun 11 Oct Ireland v France, Millennium Stadium, 4.45pm

Odds to win World Cup

10-1

Coach

Joe Schmidt

Captain

Paul O’Connell

Before their World Cup warm-up match at the beginning of this month, much was made of the fact neither England nor Ireland would wish to go into the competition on the back of consecutive defeats. Despite a second-half resurgence, the hosts had lost to France in Paris two weeks previously, while the reigning Six Nations champions had lost to Wales in Dublin. Ultimately it was England who prevailed at Twickenham, but it was perhaps their rival supporters who slept a little more soundly in their beds that evening in spite of their team’s poor performance.

Despite an awful opening 40 minutes in which the victors ought to have steamrollered them beneath the wheels of their chariot, Joe Schmidt’s men escaped from England’s fortress having lost by only eight points. Against Wales in their previous game, the margin of defeat was even more narrow. The back-to-back Six Nations champions may well be going into the tournament having lost two Tests in a row, but considering how poorly they have performed under the weight of expectation in World Cups passim, it is almost certainly no bad thing. Optimistic supporters, who believe this could be Ireland’s year to make the final and possibly even win it, have been given a much-needed pre-RWC reality check. All the better that, as reality checks go, this one wasn’t hugely jarring: having played as badly against England as they have at any time during Schmidt’s reign, Ireland still kept the margin of defeat to less than 10 points while getting this uncharacteristically dire performance out of the way before Friday’s opening ceremony.

The mantle of World Cup hopefuls has never sat well with Ireland. The team of 2007 were considered something of a golden generation who seemed to believe their own hype, only to fall flat on their faces, struggling even to beat Georgia in the pool stages. The 2011 crop had nowhere near as many superstars or caps and performed far more creditably, beating Australia in their pool, only to be outclassed by Wales in the quarter-finals. No shame there.

This year Ireland once again go into the tournament with few outstanding names in their squad but have in Schmidt a coach who throughout his career has demonstrated an unerring knack to get the maximum from ordinary players. Having fashioned this steely rod for his own back, he will be expected to mastermind Ireland’s advancement beyond the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time. Despite their underwhelming warm-up matches, it is no exaggeration to suggest that anything less than a berth in the last four will be dimly viewed as failure.

**Key player** Jonathan Sexton
**Age** 30
**Caps** 56
**Position** Fly-half
**Height** 6ft 2in
**Weight** 14st 4lb
**Debut** v Fiji, Dublin, 21 Nov 2009
**Pts** 499 **Tries** 9 **Cons** 56 **Pens** 112 **Drop goals** 2 Photograph: Andrew Fosker/Rex Shutterstock

Schmidt has been given much food for thought before a series of games that could scarcely be more kind to his squad. Canada and Romania are first up in Pool D, welcome looseners to be followed by what should be a far more rigorous workout against Italy before le crunch against France on 11 October. Barring an upset of seismic proportions, the winners of this contest at the Millennium Stadium will almost certainly face Argentina in the quarter-finals; a prospect to relish considering the losers will face the comparatively hideous – albeit one those wacky French might actually enjoy – prospect of taking on tournament favourites New Zealand.

But if Ireland are to make the most of the fixture generator’s benevolence, the warm-up games have thrown up numerous problems which urgently need to be resolved. Foremost among them is the porous state of a defence that went from conceding just three tries in this year’s Six Nations to leaking nine in their past four games, the players collectively missing 80 tackles on the way to conceding an identical number of points. They may have scored 86 in return, but these are not the statistics of a side with even remotely serious aspirations of hoisting the Webb Ellis Cup.

On the front foot, Ireland have also looked ponderous. An alarming reliance on recycling over the off-load by ball carriers suggests Schmidt has drummed a safety first policy of sterility into his forwards, while the passing of both sets of backs throughout the encounter at Twickenham was dreadful in its lack of vim and accuracy. Ireland’s back line, in particular, was far too slow in getting the ball out to wide areas and it was no great surprise to see their only try against England come from a rolling maul. It is hardly too much to expect that tackling and passing, the very basics of the game that juniors are taught in their first training sessions, should be a lot further down the list of Ireland’s major concerns on the eve of a World Cup they harbour notions of winning.

Ireland's previous World Cups

Injuries permitting, Schmidt has a team who more or less pick themselves and before the recent series of fixtures only the spots on the wing were really up for grabs. The most notable omission from Schmidt’s World Cup squad, Andrew Trimble, can consider himself unfortunate to have been dropped, not least considering the alarming slump in form suffered by Tommy Bowe, which is a major source of concern in Ireland. It is also unlikely to have gone unnoticed in training camps elsewhere.

At full-back, Simon Zebo has looked less than assured when deputising for Rob Kearney and the player struggled under pressure from an England team that had clearly identified him as a weak link in the Ireland chain. On the plus side, Dave Kearney, younger brother of the aforementioned Rob, has rewarded Schmidt’s apparently unwavering faith with some terrific performances to emerge as a likely shoo-in for a spot on the wing.

To the half-back berths, then, where the importance of Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton, along with their respective kicking games, cannot be understated. Murray’s withdrawal during the England match with his third concussion of the year, having apparently been knocked out cold in a collision with Joe Marler, was worrying. The scrum-half continues to follow the return-to-play protocols and is expected to be fit for his country’s opener against Canada.

Outside him, Sexton also contrived to put the collective Irish heart crossways by limping off at Twickenham but his injury was later confirmed as being nothing more serious than cramp. Whether it is getting his team out of a hole or simply closing out a tight game, the importance of Sexton to Ireland’s cause is impossible to ignore, not least because of the chasm in standard between him and any of their back-up No10s. The Leinster fly-half remains some way short of full match fitness but will at least be afforded the opportunity to ease his way into a World Cup that could prove career defining for all the right or wrong reasons.

While Ireland’s forwards have been typically dependable, the fitness of Cian Healy could make all the difference in titanic Tests of tight margins. The loosehead prop’s year has been ruined by injury and while he is in the squad, he is unlikely to feature until really needed against Italy and France. Behind him, Paul O’Connell will play his final matches in an Ireland shirt and it is to be hoped the occasionally Steven Gerrard-esque nature of this incredible leader’s farewell will not prove a distraction to him or his team-mates during what could be a tremendously exciting six weeks for Irish rugby.