Fixtures
Sun 20 Sep New Zealand v Argentina, Wembley Stadium, 4.45pm BST
Thurs 24 Sep New Zealand v Namibia, Olympic Stadium, 8pm BST
Fri 2 Oct New Zealand v Georgia, Millennium Stadium, 8pm BST
Fri 9 Oct New Zealand v Tonga, St James’ Park, 8pm BST
Odds to win World Cup
5-4
Coach
Steve Hansen
Captain
Richie McCaw
They are the world champions. Their squad has an average of 48 caps per man, nearly twice as many as England’s. They are always No1 in the world – all right, pedants, there has been the odd month, the last in 2009, but you are clutching at straws. The current gap between them and second place is more than six ranking points, which is a gulf but then it always is. They are, according to their team-room whiteboard in 2013 – and who is to argue with that – “the most dominant team in the history of the world”. They have Richie. They have Dan.
There can be only one winner of this World Cup.
Surely …
And yet.
They do not tend to like this World Cup business much. In pure rugby terms it is absurd that they failed to win any of the 1995, 1999 and 2007 editions. They particularly dislike playing the French, whom they may well meet in the quarter-finals. In Cardiff. In the Millenni … the Princi … in the stadium they have there. The very scene, in 2007, of the most scandalous of all the squanderings of their status as the best team in the world. Which they were then – by miles. It would not be surprising if the French were to throw their likely pool decider against Ireland this time, just so they could recreate that scene and invoke a few worst nightmares in the All Blacks for a change.
On second thoughts they will probably not. New Zealand are mentally harder these days. People accuse them of choking at World Cups. Actually, the closest they came to choking was in the final in 2011 — against the French — if by choking is mean t a seizure of fear just as destiny beckons. In 2007 they were simply complacent and underplayed, having rotated their team gratuitously through the series of embarrassing mismatches that was their pool schedule, after which they were mugged by a match-hardened team.
Things are different now. Their pool is stiffer, although not much, with Argentina and Tonga – and possibly even Georgia – likely to give them a decent workout at least. They rotate only sensibly these days and they have finally won that second World Cup. If they do meet the French in the quarter-finals this year, they will definitely not be caught unawares. Will they?
That is not the end of their issues, however. It is the mark of a great team, it is always said, that they find ways to win when they are not at the top of their game. New Zealand are nothing if not a great team and they have been finding ways to win a lot recently. Great teams, nevertheless, do not want to have to do it too often. Finding ways to win is also a sign of a team not playing very well, that it may not be the force it once was, that the others are catching up.
This year’s Rugby Championship was not a particularly serious enterprise, foreshortened and experimental – but for the first time in four years New Zealand did not win it. They found a way to beat South Africa in the second game but could not find one against Australia in the third. Working from there backwards, within the past year they have had more trouble than usual beating Samoa, Wales, Scotland and England on the road. They had problems, too, seeing off the weakened English in the first Test of last year’s series in New Zealand. At the end of the year before that – an unprecedented unbeaten one it must be acknowledged – the way to win they found against Ireland was the most convoluted and by the grace of God yet.
This is where that experience comes in but experience, too, is a double-edged sword. With it come years on the clock. It is remarkable that McCaw, Tony Woodcock and Keven Mealamu are even able to stand up straight after the pounding their bodies must have taken. Carter, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith defy logic with the way they keep themselves ahead of opponents so young and fast.
There are only three wings in their squad – one, Waisake Naholo, who has staged a miraculous recovery from a broken leg only two months ago, another, Julian Savea, who was considered overweight at roughly the same time and a third, Nehe Milner-Skudder, who has only two caps – but, boy, is he one to watch. As are they all, if fully fit.
Elsewhere they have taken only one experienced full-back in Ben Smith and three locks. This seems to be inviting a kicking game from the opposition –it best be an accurate one – which is curious because the All Blacks like it most when teams try to keep the ball and run at them. Then, when it is dropped, they move it in a flash to where opponents are not and suddenly there is a thrashing. It feels as if that has not been seen for a while.
Just when one thinks they might be wavering they reimpose themselves. Australia usually suffer the severest hidings. Every time the Wallabies get close to turning them over – or actually do so, as in August to win the Rugby Championship, when New Zealand’s defence was strangely porous – the All Blacks smash them the following week. This year’s riposte resulted in No1 in the world beating No2 41-13. What chance, then, the others?
Well, there is some. Yes, this World Cup is set to be the biggest and the best ever but it is also genuinely the most interesting. The All Blacks may be six ranking points clear of six other teams separated by fewer but there is a sneaking feeling that, despite all those caps and ways to win, the gap should not be as wide as that.
That is as much as can be said for now, however.
Only one winner.
Surely …
New Zealand’s 31-man World Cup squad
Props Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders), Ben Franks (Hurricanes), Owen Franks (Crusaders), Charlie Faumuina (Blues), Tony Woodcock (Blues).
Hookers Dane Coles (Hurricanes), Keven Mealamu (Blues), Codie Taylor (Crusaders).
Locks Brodie Retallick (Chiefs), Luke Romano (Crusaders), Sam Whitelock (Crusaders).
Back-rows Sam Cane (Chiefs), Jerome Kaino (Blues), Richie McCaw (Crusaders, capt), Liam Messam (Chiefs), Kieran Read (Crusaders), Victor Vito (Hurricanes).
Scrum-halves Tawera Kerr-Barlow (Chiefs), TJ Perenara (Hurricanes), Aaron Smith (Highlanders).
Fly-halves Beauden Barrett (Hurricanes), Dan Carter (joining Racing Métro after World Cup), Colin Slade (Crusaders).
Centres Sonny Bill Williams (Chiefs), Malakai Fekitoa (Highlanders), Ma’a Nonu (Hurricanes), Conrad Smith (Hurricanes).
Wings Waisake Naholo (Highlanders), Julian Savea (Wellington Hurricanes), Nehe Milner-Skudder (Hurricanes).
Full-backs Ben Smith (Otago Highlanders).
