South Africa v Wales
Who will win? South Africa by six points
Why? A full-strength Wales squad would have their hands full with a resurgent Springbok side; without Leigh Halfpenny, Rhys Webb, Jonathan Davies, Scott Williams and Liam Williams, among others, Warren Gatland is running short of game-breakers. Wales are brave and resourceful but it is going to require another monumental effort to stop South Africa squeezing them at the set piece.
Key player? Fourie du Preez. The tactical heart of South Africa’s team, now wearing the captain’s armband. The Boks are harder to ruffle when he starts. Robert Kitson
Who will win? Wales by two points (28-26)
Why? Because South Africa do not pose the problems – the Australian knots – that Wales find hard to undo. South Africa run ferociously and ramrod straight, and the Wales defence can handle that, on the (big) proviso their scrum holds up.
Key player George North. Can the real Gorgeous George please make his re-entry into Test rugby and leave a few tacklers in his wake? Eddie Butler
Who will win? South Africa by a kick or two.
Why? Wales’s injuries behind the scrum have restricted their attacking options. South Africa have gone Bok to basics after losing to Japan, while bringing in some younger forwards, and it would not be a setback for the tournament if they went out – but how much do Wales have left in them?
Key player Fourie du Preez for South Africa, the controller; Jamie Roberts for Wales, quiet so far by his standards, no better time to step up. Paul Rees
Who will win? South Africa by three points
Why? After the worst possible start and for reasons not entirely under their coach’s making, South Africa are beginning to fulfil their potential, while Wales reel from injury to injury. How much pain can one side take?
Key player Eben Etzebeth, particularly when he’s alongside Lood de Jager. It’s amazing that Heyneke Meyer ever thought otherwise. Mike Averis
Who will win? Wales by one
Why? A bloodbath, obviously. Not sure how much longer Wales can go on but they’ve got nothing if not balls. South Africa will smash into them again and again but their attacking game will need to sharpen up if they are to prevail. Wales to have one last defiant stand left in them.
Key player Dan Biggar. In a shootout under pressure, which this might well become, you’d trust Biggar ahead of young Handré Pollard. Michael Aylwin
New Zealand v France
Who will win? New Zealand by 15 points
Why? Because lightning does not strike thrice. France have a strong pack and did not show the best of themselves against Ireland but the All Blacks have been holding something back, too, and their game-management is smarter these days. Without Yoann Huget there is insufficient devil in the French back three and New Zealand will not be as easily ambushed as they were in 2007.
Key player? Dan Carter. He is moving to Paris after this World Cup and will want to demonstrate he is worth Racing’s sizeable investment. RK
Who will win? France by 10 points (38-28)
Why? Haven’t a clue. They are French.
Key player Louis Picamoles. Has to have one of his days when the ball finds its way to him wherever he goes. And he has to set up others, rather than try to smash New Zealand all on his own. EB
Who will win? New Zealand by a try or two.
Why? France won this fixture in 2007 but they were the Six Nations champions then, having won the title in three of the four years after the 2003 World Cup. They have finished no higher than fourth since 2011, struggling not just against the best sides. The All Blacks should have too much individual and collective quality. And Wayne Barnes is not refereeing.
Key player Frédéric Michalak for France, needs to take a tactical grip on the game; Wyatt Crockett for New Zealand, the scrum being their one area of concern. PR
Who will win? New Zealand by 14 points
Why? Forget the history. Finally, in the second half against Tonga, the All Black machine looked to have shed its ring-rustiness, both backs and forwards playing with the precision missing during the pool stages. France are still a distance off where they could be.
Key player Wyatt Crockett, who comes in as loosehead to replace a prop with 118 caps behind him while facing one of the more destructive front rows. MAv
Who will win? New Zealand by 17
Why? France’s biggest problem here is 2007. Everyone’s talking about it. They do have a habit of mugging New Zealand – but only when they catch them by surprise. We shouldn’t forget, either, the inordinate hidings that New Zealand have given them in between the upsets. The All Blacks are miles from their best but they win when they have to.
Key player Brodie Retallick. Last season he was the best player in the world by a distance. This season he hasn’t been. Time for him to step up and overcome a fairly bland French pairing. MAyl
Ireland v Argentina
Who will win? Argentina by six points
Why? Under normal circumstances Ireland would fancy advancing to their first World Cup semi-final. Their list of significant injuries, though, is a worry – despite their fans’ wonderful support, it is asking a lot to expect them to play as well as they did last Sunday. Argentina play more expansive rugby under Daniel Hourcade and will ask more attacking questions than France did.
Key player? Nicolás Sánchez. The smoothest goalkicker in the tournament. If Ireland’s discipline slips even slightly, the Puma fly-half will punish them. RK
Who will win? Argentina by five points (21-16)
Why? Argentina have history against Ireland at the World Cup and have run into form at the right time. Ireland cannot be at their best without Paul O’Connell, Sean O’Brien and Peter O’Mahony – and with Jonathan Sexton nursing a groin …
Key player Agustín Creevy. Brilliant hooker and captain. One of the stars of the tournament. EB
Who will win? Ireland, especially if Jonathan Sexton is fit, by a score or two.
Why? Ireland have developed the knack of winning under Joe Schmidt and while they will miss Paul O’Connell, Iain Henderson will step up. Their knowhow should be enough in what could be the tie of the round against an Argentina team that has flair in attack but misses too many tackles.
Key player Sexton for Ireland, puts them in the right areas; Juan Fernández Lobbe for Argentina, a top-drawer flanker who will have to slow down Irish possession. PR
Who will win? Ireland by six points
Why? Ireland are without Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien and possibly Johnny Sexton, but they were for the second half against France and looked by far the better side. There is also much muttering in camp about doing it for the fallen captain
Key player Ian Madigan. Even if he plays, Sexton is clearly not 100 per cent, so the pressure is once again on the Leinster fly-half. MAv
Who will win? Argentina by three
Why? Ireland lost three key players last weekend and actually improved. That can happen in the flux of a match – adversity inspires. Now they must negotiate a World Cup quarter-final from the start with a shedload of caps missing. Oh, and Argentina are really good. They’ll miss Marcelo Bosch but they have never looked more confident.
Key player Agustín Creevy. Seems ridiculous that such a player spent last season languishing in and out of the Worcester team in England’s second division. If he was off-form then (presumably), he’s not now. Fearsome in the tight and loose. MAyl
Australia v Scotland
Who will win? Australia by 14 points
Why? Australia have already seen off England and Wales, and Scotland, pending their appeal, are set to be without two of their key forwards because of suspension. The pace at which the Wallabies attack will concern Scotland’s defence, not always watertight against Samoa. David Pocock and Michael Hooper will also take no prisoners at the breakdown, as England’s back-row discovered.
Key player Scott Sio. His father gave him his first name after Scotland beat Samoa at the 1991 World Cup. If he frustrates WP Nel at scrum-time it could be a long afternoon for Scotland in other areas. RK
Who will win? Australia by three points (37-34)
Why? Scotland will rise to the occasion and threaten the biggest upset since Japan’s very recent one … and Australia will rally and pinch it late in the game.
Key player Ben McCalman. A force of nature against Wales, he seems to enjoy the end of games. EB
Who will win? Australia by a score (of points)
Why? Scotland struggled to contain Samoa and trailed to the USA at the interval. Australia’s enemy would be complacency were Michael Cheika not in charge. But with Craig Joubert refereeing, the game could be levelled out by a confusion of penalties.
Key player Greig Laidlaw for Scotland, an accurate goal-kicker and clever scrum-half; David Pocock for Australia, a snaffler supreme. PR
Who will win? Australia by 10 points
Why? Australia are looking a class act, happy with plan A, plan B or anything they have to improvise on the hoof. And look at the bench. It’s not without reason the bookies have them hot favourites.
Key player Matt Giteau by a nose from Sunday’s other centurion, Stephen Moore. What England – or any other side for that matter – wouldn’t give for a ball-playing 12 with talent to match his experience. MAv
Who will win? Australia by five
Why? Australia have looked the most impressive in the pool stages. Which is another way of saying they beat the hosts by 20 points. They’ve looked less comfortable in the games they’ve been expected to win easily. They are expected to win this one easily – but Scotland will make them work for it.
Key player Bernard Foley. He’s looking a million dollars at the moment but he doesn’t always. David Pocock is Australia’s rock and best player but Foley is the barometer for how the team is playing. MAyl
