1 Breakdown: Beware the party poopers
No side has anything approaching a reasonable record against the All Blacks in the past four years but Australia have performed the least badly; a victory, two draws and a couple of close encounters. Whatever their travails off the pitch or their problems up front, their one constant has been an ability to compete with New Zealand at the breakdown, the single most important area in the modern game. In Sydney in August, the Wallabies started David Pocock and Michael Hooper, Pooper as they have become known, in the back row for the first time and the result was 14 turnovers in the opening half. The following week in Auckland, Pocock was rested and Richie McCaw reasserted himself, giving the All Blacks the licence to counterattack. Pocock and Hooper operate as a duo, the latter knocking down ball-carriers and the former foraging for the ball. If New Zealand are to be foiled in their attempt to become the first side to retain the trophy, it is the tackle area, where South Africa rattled the holders in the first half last week, where they will need to be undone.
2 Creativity: The 10 commandments
Tributes have been lavished on the New Zealand outside-half Dan Carter this week, a player who has shown since making his debut against Wales in 2002 that there is room for those blessed with guile and cunning. He has toughened up since his rookie days and is durable, but if Carter were a footballer he would be a Xavi or a Hoddle, a touch player with the vision to match, living proof that Barry John would have thrived in the current era. Bernard Foley arrived in London last month as one of Australia’s perceived weak links, but he was the architect of the victory over England and although well hidden in defence against Wales, he made a crucial tackle on George North. Both 10s thrive on the quick ball but Carter is able to make the most of slow possession, something Foley needs to replicate if the Wallabies are to maintain their 100% World Cup record on British and Irish soil.
3 Out wide: Executing under pressure
Two of the points in a preview of a Six Nations match would be focused on the scrum and the lineout, but while neither Australia nor New Zealand will ignore the importance of the set-pieces, it is elsewhere that they will look to win the game. The two sides have scored 24 tries through wings between them this tournament which reflects not only the willingness of both sides to move the ball but their ability to get it wide, think Ma’a Nonu’s delayed pass for Beauden Barrett on the left wing against South Africa followed in virtually the same spot 24 hours later by Matt Giteau’s long pass over the heads of two defenders for Adam Ashley-Cooper. New Zealand’s Julian Savea needs one try to set a new record for a single tournament while Australia’sDrew Mitchell needs one to equal the overall World Cup record. It is not their desire to play that marks out the two teams, but their ability and skill under pressure.
4 Tactical kicking: Adapting off the cuff
Carter is a threat not only with his running and passing but his tactical kicking, as he again showed against South Africa. New Zealand do not look to live up to an ideal in the way they play but adapt to opponents and conditions. As it started to rain, so Carter kept the Springboks pinned back. It was Foley’s diagonal kick that started the momentum against England when Mike Brown stepped into touch after catching the ball and the home side were under pressure. He has the left-footed option of Matt Giteau outside him, and while the Wallabies do not have the tactical variety of their opponents’ kicking, having over the years become used to operating on the minimum share of possession, Giteau adds something the All Blacks do not have. Foley’s goal-kicking has also been more accurate than predicted, while Carter is 21 points shy of 1,600 in Test rugby.
5 Teamwork: From body blows to offloads
Both sides have their headline makers but rely on the often unseen work of the likes of Scott Fardy and Kane Douglas for Australia and Sam Whitelock and Jerome Kaino for New Zealand, the ones who administer the body blows. Steve Hansen made the point that rugby in the southern hemisphere is sometimes perceived as soft in Europe because of the more expansive nature of the game in the Super 15 and the Rugby Championship, but it clearly was just as physical, if not more so. Fardy and Douglas are going to be key players for the Wallabies, the brake fluid in the Australian machine, while both front rows are equally adept in attack and defence. They are teams that add up to the sum of their parts because they use them all and why a strong case can be made for each to win Friday’s Rugby World Cup final.
