Kyoto, where the draw for the 2019 World Cup takes place on Wednesday, is known as Japan’s thousand-year capital. It is unlikely to take that long for a northern hemisphere nation to win the tournament again after England’s success 14 years ago, and for once their southern hemisphere rivals are not hogging the places at the top of the world rankings.
Holding the draw more than two years before the start of the tournament is intended to give the host nation the maximum time to sell tickets. England had even longer for the 2015 World Cup, with the pools all lined up at the end of 2012. When the hosts were grouped with Australia and Wales to ensure that either the 2007 finalists or one of the 2011 semi-finalists would not make the knockout stage, the protest was loud enough for the draw to be put back six months this time. It gave the Six Nations countries a chance to improve their positions in the rankings, although at one point Wales, after defeats by England and France, were on course to slip out of the top eight again; victory over Ireland saved them.
The prospect of another group of death remains, however. Argentina, semi-finalists two years ago, are ranked ninth in the world. Before they played Wales in Cardiff last November their head coach, Daniel Hourcade, was asked whether he had considered calling on experienced European-based players excluded from the squad under the post-2015 policy of considering only Super Rugby players.
Wales set everything on being in the leading eight by the time of the draw because of their experience in the last World Cup, even though it was England who failed to go through. But Hourcade said he was not bothered about the rankings. What mattered to him was carrying through a policy that he believed would ensure that the Pumas were at their peak when they arrived in Japan in 2019.
“I want teams to be worried that they have drawn Argentina,” he said, adding that, if his players were where he intended them to be come the World Cup, it would not matter whom they were up against, not that he will be dancing a jig if the Pumas find themselves facing the All Blacks again. As they are ninth in the rankings, they could be pooled with the holders, New Zealand, and their Rugby Championship rivals South Africa, whose annus horribilis in 2016 led to them slipping out of the top four.
Although 20 countries will take part in the World Cup, there will be only 12 names in the draw: the teams that finished in the top three of their groups in 2015. They have been split into three groups according to their position in the rankings: New Zealand, England, Australia and Ireland occupy the first tier, meaning they will avoid each other; then come Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales; and Argentina, Japan, Georgia and Italy form the third wave.
The other eight teams will be decided after qualifying matches in Africa, the Americas, Europe and Oceania. Whoever draws Argentina could land Fiji, who were the other victims in England’s pool in 2015, Samoa or Tonga; or two of them.
Ticket sales are the host nation’s only source of income from the event. Everything else goes to Rugby World Cup Ltd: television rights, sponsorship, advertising, merchandising and hospitality packages. The Rugby Football Union had to guarantee organisers £80m two years ago, money it had to generate from ticket sales. Where the RFU was experienced in organising tournaments and big matches, it is a leap into the dark for Japan. There are 12 venues for their tournament, so that 75% of Japan’s population of 127 million is within an hour of one of them.
Akira Shimazu, president of the tournament’s organising committee, has said: “Japan is preparing to welcome the world. We are committed to Rugby World Cup and we’re aiming to deliver the best yet. It will be a celebration of rugby and of Japanese culture as we will show off the best of our country and our hospitality on a global stage. The last World Cup was a great success but our task is not to emulate England but to make it a very Japanese event.”
Before the draw World Rugby will debate extending the residential qualification period for Test players. It is currently three years, but member unions are set to agree a recommendation to increase it to five. The change would not be retrospective and would not prevent the Sale wing Denny Solomona, who recently became available for England under the three-year rule, from touring Argentina with Eddie Jones’s side next month.
