1. NEW ZEALAND
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Black is, in no uncertain terms, back. Rusty, error-prone and patchy in the pool stages, yet victory over France was the Kiwis in full flight. The All Blacks punished France in the first half, ruthlessly took advantage of Louis Picamoles’ yellow card and kept piling on the misery in the closing stages – it was the 80-minute performance that we suspected New Zealand had up their sleeve. From 1 to 15 the levels of skill were unparalleled – simply playing a different game to their opponents – yet the message from the Kiwi camp is that they must improve against South Africa.
Comparisons to Jonah Lomu may be a touch premature but Julian Savea has come to life while Dan Carter’s performance at fly-half was mesmeric, if overdue.
Now the Springboks. Fear is the wrong word but they are the opposition that New Zealand respect the most. Conrad Smith said as much this week, while Sean Fitzpatrick considers the 1996 series win in South Africa as a better achievement than the 1987 World Cup success. New Zealand have won four of the last five meetings, including that remarkable 2013 Test in Johannesburg – what wouldn’t we give for a repeat on Saturday? – but at the World Cup the Kiwis have played the Springboks three times and won just once. At this competition at least, they are the All Blacks’ bete noire.
• Savea has eight tries at the tournament and Nehe Milner-Skudder five, but it is the full-back Ben Smith who leads the way in terms of the most metres made, racking up exactly 400.
Next match South Africa, Saturday 24 October, Twickenham (semi-final)
2. ARGENTINA
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The frightening thing about Argentina’s thumping win against Ireland was not the score line, nor even the manner in which their outside backs shredded their opposite numbers to bits; it is just how young Daniel Hourcade’s side are. Colossal performances came in the second row from both Tomás Lavanini and Guido Petti – 22 and 20 respectively – while at blindside was another 22-year-old, Pablo Matera. They do have a pair of 33-year-olds with buckets of experience in Juan Martín Hernández and Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe and, while their front row is seasoned, the second-string trio is comparatively baby-faced. Others to particularly shine against Ireland – Nicolás Sánchez, Martín Landajo, Juan Imhoff and the 21-year-old Santiago Cordero – are a way off their prime yet.
Stuart Lancaster spoke about his England side perhaps peaking for 2019 but the Pumas will take some beating in Japan. Back to the present day, though, and Australia will have their hands full on Sunday. Argentina will not have the element of surprise against the Wallabies and were drubbed 34-9 in July when the sides last met, but the year before came a first win for the Pumas since 1997, back when Petti was just two.
• After scoring two tries against Ireland Juan Imhoff is the first player to score five tries at a World Cup for Argentina.
Next match Australia, Sunday 25 October, Twickenham (semi-final)
3. AUSTRALIA
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Was their quarter-final the scrape that all eventual winners have or were Australia shown up for perhaps not being quite as good as we thought? Yes, they scored five tries, yes two of Scotland’s three were fortunate, but with 60 seconds remaining the Wallabies were staring down the barrel and a side as talented as theirs should not have got themselves into that position.
Let’s sidestep the debate over the winning penalty, while making a passing reference to the fact that Australia were in any case dominant in the scrum at the time, and focus on their semi-final. Much rests on whether they have David Pocock, Scott Sio and Israel Folau available – the latter was notably absent against Scotland – while the former will be needed to combat the Pumas’ aggressiveness in contact. But Sio is arguably the one that can least afford to do without, having had early problems at the scrum against Scotland.
Which leads us on to Mario Ledesma, the Argentinian behind Australia’s scrum revolution. Michael Cheika wants him to sing the Pumas’ national anthem, to celebrate his nationality, knowing full well that his scrum guru will have left no stone unturned in preparing to face his countrymen. Success at the scrum and the Wallabies should just edge home.
• Bryan Habana, currently level on 15 with Jonah Lomu, is looking to take the World Cup try-scoring record outright this weekend but so is Drew Mitchell, who is just one behind after his double against Scotland.
Next match Argentina, Sunday 25 October, Twickenham (semi-final)
4. SOUTH AFRICA
▲1
Wales may have eventually succumbed to a bit of South African beauty but until then it had been all beast – Schalk Burger quite incredible in leading the battering ram charge. The key to their victory however was belief; unwavering confidence that the chance would come eventually and when it did, Fourie du Preez – who had to be begged by his coach, Heyneke Meyer, to play at this tournament just a few weeks before it started – clinically took it. Indeed, Du Preez has made a career out of that kind of thing and it is no surprise Meyer, who plucked the scrum-half out of school and took him to the Bulls, wanted his general leading his troops.
Meyer has, unsurprisingly, picked an unchanged XV to face New Zealand and, somewhat bullishly, has said they are the easiest team to prepare his side for. Bullish, but it is clear what he means. This fixture, more than perhaps any other in the upper echelons of world sport, guarantees a contest where both sides raise their games to new heights. The Springboks will be sore that, leading by three points and with seven minutes to go against New Zealand in July, they succumbed to a bit of Richie McCaw magic. But that was before the defeat to Japan. They have been since been scorned, sinews have been stiffened ... the game is now afoot.
• Against Wales, Burger made 13 carries across the gain line, more than double the number of times anyone else managed it.
Next match New Zealand, Saturday 24 October, Twickenham (semi-final)
ALREADY ELIMINATED
5. WALES
6. SCOTLAND
7. IRELAND
8. FRANCE
9. JAPAN
10 ENGLAND
11. FIJI
12. ITALY
13. GEORGIA
14. SAMOA
15. TONGA
16. ROMANIA
17. CANADA
18. USA
19. NAMIBIA
20. URUGUAY
