1 NEW ZEALAND
▶◀
Has a two-point victory in a semi-final ever looked so comfortable? There was just one moment when South Africa threatened the All Blacks, when 20-18 down at Twickenham, but as Pat Lambie punted over the top, there was Dan Carter to side-foot coolly into touch. In the closing minutes New Zealand were camped in South Africa’s half, utterly in control of their destiny. South Africa certainly riled them and, frustrated, New Zealand gave away a series of needless penalties but Carter, calm as you like, slotted an expert drop goal early in the second half and from that moment on, victory felt inevitable.
The most impressive thing about New Zealand, and there are a lot, continues to be their record when they have a man in the sin-bin. We can wonder in awe about how they do it but it comes down to one thing – practice. It is a myth that the All Blacks’ talent is God given; that they do not need to work at it. That they are unchanged against Australia is no surprise – Steve Hansen has probably known his team for the final since the start of the tournament – and, while Richie McCaw will have his work cut out against David Pocock and Michael Hooper, the All Blacks are not hostages to history as they were four years ago. The fact remains that, for all Australia’s strengths in defence and attack, they will need New Zealand to have an off day to prevail.
• One of New Zealand and Australia have been in six of the seven previous World Cup finals but they have never met at this stage before.
Next match Australia, Saturday 31 October (final)
2 AUSTRALIA (Up 1)
▲ 1
We can wax lyrical about their attacking prowess – and they are truly clinical in their opponents’ 22 – but we should pay homage to their remarkable defence again. It is that kind of resistance they will need on Saturday. For all Michael Cheika’s talents, he cannot see into the future, but it was telling that after first pairing David Pocock and Michael Hooper in the Rugby Championship to record a first victory over New Zealand since 2011 the head coach put that particular experiment straight back in the box. It was almost as if Cheika was happy enough to let his side feel the All Blacks’ wrath in Auckland a week later, content that, if the sides should meet again at the World Cup, he would know what his first-choice XV is capable of.
But just as their defence must be on its mettle, not to mention the scrum which was brought down to earth by the Pumas but welcomes Scott Sio back, so must the attack, spearheaded by the evergreen Adam Ashley-Cooper. He has taken up the mantle that Israel Folau was expected to. South Africa seem to be the exception to the rule but no one else seems to beat New Zealand by edging into a lead and holding on. As Australia proved in August when their winning margin was more than a score, and as Ireland in 2013 and many others have learned to their cost, you had better be out of sight with five minutes to go.
• David Pocock has made 14 turnovers, five more than Thierry Dusautoir and Leone Nakarawa, who went out in the pool stages.
Next match New Zealand, Saturday 31 October (final)
3 SOUTH AFRICA
▲ 1
Heyneke Meyer described the third-place play-off as “like kissing your sister” after defeat by the All Blacks before naming what is effectively his strongest side to face Argentina. Victor Matfield, captain for the day, comes in for one last hurrah while Fourie du Preez, who ended the semi-final with a huge bruise on his cheek, is replaced by Ruan Pienaar. If the Springboks are collectively struggling for motivation, individually Bryan Habana will not be – the veteran wing still chasing the try that will edge him past Jonah Lomu’s World Cup record. More interesting will be South Africa’s approach. Having gone back to tried and tested methods to bully their way back to respectability after the humiliation of the opening defeat by Japan, will Meyer, whose contract is up after the tournament but who has said he is willing to continue amid a dearth of alternatives, give supporters a glimpse of a more expansive future? He certainly has the players in midfield in Handre Pollard, Damien de Allende and Jesse Kriel as well as the talented full-back Willie le Roux but will South Africa accept their limitations, continue playing to their strengths and hope that next time they squeeze past the All Blacks? Or does Meyer try to continue the job he started a year or two ago and convince his employers that root-and-branch overhaul is needed? We will hope for clues on Friday but, regardless, they are likely to be too strong for an Argentina side decimated by injury.
• Bryan Habana has played the most minutes of the tournament – 470 – missing only the 10 minutes he spent in the sin-bin against New Zealand.
Next match Argentina, Friday 30 October (bronze final)
4 ARGENTINA
▼2
They must be commended for maintaining their intent to play against Australia, even if it cost them 14 points in the first 11 minutes, and a bit more cutting edge against a resolute Wallabies defence might have made for a grandstand finish – Juan Imhoff’s early departure was a considerable blow. And what if Santiago Cordero’s line break just before half-time had reaped the reward it deserved? Ultimately, however, they died by their swords and the Pumas, battered and bruised, have made nine changes for the third-place play-off with Juan Martín Hernández, Imhoff, Joaquín Tuculet and Agustín Creevy all missing. Raising themselves again, against the might of the Springboks, is a tall order. But while Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe, who plays his last international match on Friday, and Hernández, now 33, will not be around in four years, the vast majority of Daniel Hourcade’s swashbuckling side will be. We can only expect that Argentina’s Super Rugby side will further the Pumas’ development – although Imhoff’s future international availability needs to be ironed out – and we can look forward to Argentina claiming some northern hemisphere scalps in the coming autumns. The future for the Pumas looks particularly bright even if in the short term the Springboks squeeze prevails.
• Nicolás Sánchez, captain on Friday, is the tournament’s top points scorer and needs only three more to eclipse the 91 scored by Felipe Contepomi in 2007.
Next match South Africa, Friday 30 October (bronze final)
ALREADY ELIMINATED
5. WALES
6. SCOTLAND
7. IRELAND
8. FRANCE
9. JAPAN
10 ENGLAND
11. FIJI
12. ITALY
13. GEORGIA
14. SAMOA
15. TONGA
16. ROMANIA
17. CANADA
18. USA
19. NAMIBIA
20. URUGUAY
