1. AUSTRALIA
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When responding to Clive Woodward’s jibe that the Wallabies were traditionally not the brightest, Michael Cheika spoke about what he called EQ - ‘emotional intelligence’ - rather than IQ. Australia then proceeded to batter England with an execution of skills unparalleled at this tournament but it was against Wales that EQ came to the fore. Down to 13, Australia drew on the confidence built from 10 straight wins over Wales and manned the barracks with remarkable spirit but no less intelligence. Cheika made periodic replacements, making sure that fresh legs covered the exposed ground, the Wallabies knew Craig Joubert would be loath to produce a third yellow card – and therefore what they could get away with – and they backed their blitz defence which, if successful early on, would have their opponents hesitating in attack. Now, having also won their last World Cup in 1999 with the best defence in the competition, the Wallabies arrive at the quarter-finals as the team to beat, a side seemingly without weakness and what, on paper, should be the most straightforward of the weekend’s matches. They have pressed the self-destruct button before but, regardless of what Woodward says, they do not appear stupid enough to do so again.
• Dean Mumm has stolen four lineouts, more than anyone else and one more than Geoff Parling, the man who replaces him at Exeter Chiefs.
Next match Scotland, Sunday 18 October (quarter-final)
2. NEW ZEALAND
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Byron Kelleher, one of only two All Blacks to play in both infamous World Cup defeats to France, eight years apart, was heard saying ‘this is starting to feel like 99’ as les Bleus were turning the tide in Cardiff in 2007. It is unlikely that Richie McCaw or Dan Carter, the only two All Blacks that return to the Millennium Stadium bearing the scars of eight years ago, will be saying something similar but it would be naive to rule it out altogether. Against Tonga in their final pool match, just as had been the case in their previous three, New Zealand showed signs of rust but Steve Hansen was pithy in his dismissal of his side’s performance hitherto. “Whatever has happened in the past month is irrelevant now,” he said. “I’ve been to four World Cups and I’ve learned a few things along the way. How you are playing during the pools means nothing.” You get the feeling that Hansen has been preparing, perhaps even expecting, this particular quarter-final ever since he replaced Graham Henry and while Tony Woodcock’s absence is likely to mean France are not put to bed early, it should be the All Blacks finishing in the ascendancy this time.
• With two tries against Tonga, Nehe Milner-Skudder has now scored doubles in three of his first five Tests for New Zealand.
Next match France, Saturday 17 October (quarter-final)
3. IRELAND
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We wondered what they were made of after simmering their way through the pool stages but now we know. The victory against France, their biggest over them since the 70s, was arguably their finest performance under Joe Schmidt and full of character, resilience, ruthlessness in the French half and no little skill either. Sean O’Brien had a moment of madness in the first minute but proceeded to have one of those games that inspires awe. He will be sorely missed against Argentina, as will his injured back-row team-mate Peter O’Mahony but Ireland have more than able replacements in Chris Henry and Jordi Murphy, even if neither has O’Brien’s ball-carrying prowess. Iain Henderson is among the form players at the tournament and will slot into the void left by Paul O’Connell but it is no slight on the 23-year-old to say that Ireland will miss their captain against an Argentina side currently rampant. An appropriately large number of words have been written in homage to O’Connell’s leadership this week – and team-mates would indeed run through walls for him – but it is his ability to consistently rise to the biggest of occasions that set him apart. We may never see his like again.
• Ireland’s deputy fly-half Ian Madigan has landed more successful kicks at goal than the first choice Jonathan Sexton with 12 to his team-mate’s 10.
Next match Argentina, Sunday 18 October (quarter-final)
4. ARGENTINA
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No one has produced better rugby to watch. It was against a Namibia side ready to draw a line under their campaign but the counterattacking in the last 20 minutes was exhibition stuff and the Pumas ended up as the third highest try-scorers in the pool phase despite opening their campaign against the defending champions. That they were able to do so while making 11 changes, already assured of second place, is of course in part because they were the chief beneficiaries of the pool of death - Argentina crept up to eighth in the world rankings in December 2012 when Wales slipped to ninth - but they are unlikely to be so expansive against Ireland. Daniel Hourcade, their shrewd head coach, is convinced Argentina can alter their tactics accordingly for the knockout stages and, having correctly predicted that Ireland would beat France, is likely to have been hatching a plan for Joe Schmidt’s side for a while. They will have to scrummage like their vaunted predecessors to prevail though.
• After racking up 64 against Namibia in their final game Argentina were the highest point scorers in the pool stages with 179, three more than South Africa.
Next match Ireland, Sunday 18 October (quarter-final)
5. SOUTH AFRICA
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This may seem like poking the bear even further but is the supposed Springboks’ revival just a little overstated? They beat a pretty shocking Samoa side, a somewhat second-string Scotland and the USA but the severity of the humiliation suffered for losing to Japan does not chime with the plaudits rightly won by Eddie Jones’s side. Perhaps South Africa were not that bad against Japan but their limits were exposed. Yes, they are gathering momentum, and with Fourie du Preez at scrum-half, Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager in the most brutal of boiler rooms and a menacing back row they have rediscovered their identity, but their game plan is hardly unpredictable and in Handre Pollard, Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel they have a midfield full of potential but unchallenged in the furnaces of the World Cup knockout stages. Surely that is where Shaun Edwards’ crosshairs have been focused this week.
• South Africa boast two of the three players still in the competition to play every minute of every match for the countries – Bryan Habana and Francois Louw.
Next match Wales, Saturday 17 October (quarter-final)
6. FRANCE
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Their former defence coach Dave Ellis puts it best. “They are the only team in the world that can go from the shithouse to the penthouse in a week.” But they couldn’t do it again could they? It is unlikely, not least because New Zealand are overdue a performance of dominant authority and in previous incarnations of this fixture France had at least demonstrated an ambition to swagger with ball in hand. Under Philippe Saint-André, they have not. Indeed, its absence was the most disappointing thing against an embattled Ireland side whose senior ranks were rapidly depleting. With the southern hemisphere threatening a clean sweep of the semi-final places what we wouldn’t give for a throwback to 1999, a feeling shared, so it seems, by New Zealand’s coach, Steve Hansen, who said: “Their game was built around flair in the backs and real physicality up front. I’m not sure it’s the same flair they have now.” Unusually incendiary from Hansen; perhaps he is baiting Freddie Michalak who is never at his best when trying to force things, or perhaps he just thinks the penthouse is too far out of reach for les Bleus.
• When France beat the All Blacks in the 2007 quarter-final in Cardiff Thierry Dusautoir made 38 tackles, more than the entire New Zealand team put together.
Next match New Zealand, Saturday 17 October (quarter-final)
7. WALES
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They are the romantics’ choice but then you wonder what Barry John, Phil Bennett and JPR really make of Warrenball. The truth is that while Wales’s strength in adversity has stirred something in the soul, there has been little swashbuckling to set pulses racing. That surely must change against South Africa. Warren Gatland will relish confronting the Springboks’ power head on, hence why his No1 lumberjack Dan Lydiate has been recalled, but he is not stubborn enough to ignore the overwhelming evidence that Wales will not win by going through the Springboks and someone will need to navigate a way around them. Gatland seems more likely to get his kit on himself than trust James Hook at centre, but why he remained on the bench with Australia down to 13 is a mystery and his continued omission will only taste more bitter if Wales go down by the narrowest of margins - the object that eventually moves to South Africa’s irresistible force. In short, Wales must not attempt to do what England tried to do to them. That said, Jamie Roberts - Shaun Edwards’ onfield general - is of huge importance. Fortunately for Wales he is right at the top of his game.
• Wales’s failure to score a try in defeat to Australia was the first time they had done so at the World Cup since 1999 when again their opponents were the Wallabies.
Next match South Africa, Saturday 17 October (quarter-final)
8. SCOTLAND
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Perhaps the most impressive thing about Scotland’s nerve-jangling victory over Samoa is that, having been presented with numerous opportunities to throw it away, they eventually got over the line thanks to their steely captain, Greig Laidlaw. It may seem a back-handed compliment but long-suffering supporters would have been fearing the worst at half-time against a Samoa side determined to claw back some pride before exiting the tournament. The downside is that had Samoa not given away so many penalties in the second half, Scotland would surely have been heading for the exit and while it is hardly their fault that they advanced at the expense of Japan it does not make them the most popular of quarter-finalists. Without wanting to patronise, at least they have little to lose against Australia and will take heart from the fact they have won two of their last three meetings with the Wallabies, even if that run dates back to 2009. That Finn Russell and John Hardie were fit to play against Samoa was a huge positive but Scotland will feel the impact of the suspensions handed out to Ross Ford and Richie Gray, even if they are hopeful with their appeals.
• Scotland have scored the most penalties in the competition with 14 – one more than Japan with fellow quarter-finalists Australia, Wales and France all on 12.
Next match Australia, Sunday 18 October (quarter-final)
ALREADY ELIMINATED 9. JAPAN. 10 ENGLAND. 11. FIJI. 12. ITALY. 13. GEORGIA. 14. SAMOA. 15. TONGA. 16. ROMANIA. 17. CANADA. 18. USA. 19. NAMIBIA. 20. URUGUAY
