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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Robert Kitson, Eddie Butler, Paul Rees, Mike Averis and Michael Aylwin

Rugby World Cup: Guardian writers’ predictions for the tournament

2011 Rugby World Cup final
Richie McCaw celebrates after New Zealand’s 8-7 win against France in the 2011 Rugby World Cup final. Who will get their hands on the Webb Ellis Cup this time? Photograph: David Rogers/Getty Images

Who will win the World Cup?

It really should be New Zealand. Then again, we said that in 1995, 1999 and 2007. The difference this time is that half-a-dozen rivals also feel they can lift the Webb Ellis Cup. This will be no casual coronation. Would you entirely bet against England in a World Cup final played at Twickenham? There will be a major twist somewhere down the line. Robert Kitson

France. They’ve been to three finals and it’s about time they won it. Don’t know how they’ll do it but neither do they. Presumably it will be via a multitude of scrapes and close shaves, and will involve several flirtations with disgrace and dismay. In finals past they have looked a little spent but if that’s what we expect this time, they will do the opposite. Eddie Butler

England and Australia to contest the final, on the proviso that England win the group and avoid a knockout passage involving South Africa and New Zealand. The Wallabies are on the up, the only direction they could take given the state they were in a year ago before Michael Cheika took over, and well-equipped for one-off matches. The choice of referee for the final would be interesting. Another Frenchman would suit the hosts. Paul Rees

New Zealand but I have a sneaking regard for France, a side with a history (and a chance) of upsetting All Black apple carts. Remember 1999 at Twickenham, when France scored 33 points without reply, and 2007 in Cardiff and the remarkable Thierry Dusautoir? The Cardiff quarter-final could easily see a rerun of that encounter. Mike Averis

New Zealand. They’ve not been playing well lately and they’re getting on a bit. Europe is sending its strongest set of challengers yet. It’s in Europe. There are a lot more reasons than usual not to go with the bleedin’ obvious. But those names on the All Blacks’ team sheet still look to die for. Pressure-wise, it will feel like a walk in the park compared to 2011. And Dan Carter has unfinished business. Michael Aylwin

Who is the player to watch?

Australia flanker David Pocock.
Australia flanker David Pocock. Photograph: Dan Mullan/Getty Images

David Pocock. The Wallaby flanker is that rare animal: a player capable of transforming an entire nation’s prospects. The startling difference he made to Australia’s momentum against New Zealand in Sydney last month was ominous indeed. If he makes a similar impact at the breakdown and around the field at this World Cup, England’s life will become infinitely harder. RK

Yoann Huget. The Frenchman is 28 and hardly a newcomer but he seems to have embraced the aerial game, an essential aspect of the new age. This involves starting airborne routines with kicks – he has played full-back enough to manage that – but, just as important, catching the ball on its way back down, timing his running jumps to claim it above his head. Once in possession, he’s elusive and speedy. EB

It will not be much of a tournament if there is only one! Anthony Watson, Jonny May, Nikola Matawalu, Kahn Fotuali’i, Alun Wyn Jones, Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Sexton, Sean O’Brien, Stuart Hogg, Wesley Fofana, Yoann Huget, Israel Folau, Scott Sio, Willie le Roux, Jesse Kriel, Takudzwa Ngwenya … and most of the All Blacks, especially Dan Carter and Richie McCaw, two of the game’s most outstanding players through the years whose like is unlikely to be seen again for some while. PR

Guilhem Guirado. Who? The France hooker has been around for a while (he made his Test debut in 2008) but with Eddy Ben Arous on one side and Rabah Slimani the other – not to mention Vincent Debaty, Benjamin Kayser and Uini Atonio waiting on the bench – their front row looks like some weapon. Ask England. MAv

Gareth Davies. They’ll tell you in Wales they have no chance. No Leigh Halfpenny, no Rhys Webb. What are they to do? Well, give the tee to Dan Biggar (three-time top points scorer in the Pro12), unleash Liam Williams at full-back and see what this boy Davies can do. He’s electric. But for injury he would have pushed Webb last season. Not sure yet whether he can boss a game at international level but it’s going to be fun finding out. MAyl

How far will England go?

The final. A slight leap of faith, maybe, but as hosts they will be serious contenders if they can finish top of their fiendish pool. Much hinges on some key men staying fit – George Ford, Chris Robshaw, Jonathan Joseph – and others playing the house down – Courtney Lawes, Anthony Watson, Joe Marler – but this is a more cohesive group than four years ago. Lifting the trophy, though, may be a rose-tinted dream too far. RK

Semi-finals minimum. It’s a slog to get there as Pool A runners-up, a cake-walk for the winners, playing as they are, at home. The B road takes them to a meeting with the All Blacks in the last four, the A road to one with France. How could England possibly lose to France? Don’t know, but see above … EB

As above: to the final. They are perhaps not among the top four sides on paper but they are the hosts, they have French referees, who reward legitimate scrummaging, in their key pool matches against Wales and Australia and they have pace and stealth out wide to complement grunt up front. Twickenham should take them to the final day. PR

Semi-finals. Welsh injuries improved England’s chances of getting out of the pool stages, possibly as group leaders. That would mean a probable quarter-final against Scotland or Samoa at Twickenham before an Ireland semi-final, with Joe Schmidt’s side having the benefit of a progressive buildup behind them. MAv

Final. If Dylan Hartley could somehow insinuate himself into proceedings, there’s no reason – other than the All Blacks – why they shouldn’t win the whole thing. They are far more settled than people give them credit for. That pack picks itself and has plenty in reserve. They’ve settled on a lively pair of wingers and the most sensible solution to the inside-centre conundrum. If George Ford’s goal‑kicking holds up under pressure, they look strong. Oh, and bar a knockabout with Uruguay in Manchester they will be at Twickenham throughout. MAyl

Who will surprise us?

Everyone, hopefully, but Argentina are a better team than many perceive. No longer do they simply rely on their forwards and they beat South Africa 37-25 in Durban a few weeks ago. Could Scotland do something similar to the Springboks in Newcastle on 3 October? Will France beat Ireland? The ripple effect, if so, will be significant. RK

Referees. The audience may be confused by a few referrals to neck-roll clear‑outs at the breakdown but in general communications between ref, TMO, players and crowd are clearer than ever. The World Cup needs a final untainted by the refereeing malfunctions of the past (eg 2003 and 2011). EB

The only major side with the capacity to surprise is France, largely dismal since making the 2011 final. It is likely to be an endurance World Cup and there are question marks about their stamina but they forged a spirit in adversity in New Zealand that they will need again. Scotland have made a quiet entrance but narrow defeats in Ireland and France in the warm-ups hint at better times ahead. Their final group match against Samoa will mark judgment day. PR

See above. France have a habit of pulling themselves together for World Cups, none more so than last time in New Zealand, when a squad at odds with their coach turned to player power before beating England and Wales then getting within touching distance of New Zealand in the final. Telling the coach he’s out on his ear before the World Cup has even started may not be best for in-house harmony but finally Philippe Saint‑André seems to have Les Bleus playing for him. But it could just as easily go wrong. MAv

Scotland. Not the first time, hopes for the Scots have been high. It wouldn’t be the first time, either, if they went on to flop. But on the basis that a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day, so a pigheaded optimism for Scotland’s chances will eventually be rewarded. Samoa have slid beneath them in the world rankings, and their pivotal pool games against South Africa and Samoa are in Newcastle, which is the closest to home advantage that anyone will enjoy at this World Cup, bar England and Wales. Wouldn’t quite rule out their topping the pool. MAyl

Most looking forward to?

A tournament that grabs everyone by the lapels. We all like football but six weeks of compelling sport that relegates even José Mourinho and Louis van Gaal to the “in brief” columns has to be the collective aim. Referees, players, coaches and volunteers have a significant role to play, as will ITV’s pundits. Bore the pants off their new audience and rugby union will have wasted a once-in-a-generation opportunity. RK

France-Ireland. To be World Cup winners, France have to beat Ireland in the last round of Pool D matches. To be a World Cup power for the first time, Ireland must beat the wacky French. Twickenham, of course, will have its dramas but this is Cardiff’s. EB

Matches not decided by the subjectivity of referees. Fiji not being blown off the park in the opening quarter at Twickenham. A dash of daring: all the time spent in summer camps at altitude and in torture chambers will help stamina but what about the rugby? Which is where referees come in: let it flow. PR

Always a joy to watch the islanders, especially when the game has an edge, so Tonga versus Argentina at Leicester on 4 October fits the bill nicely. It would have been even more atmospheric played at Welford Road rather than across the road but the possible prize of going through from Pool C should be enough to guarantee two sides knocking sparks off one another. MAv

St James’ Park, Villa Park, Manchester City Stadium. You become very familiar with the usual venues in this job. Much as we love them, it will be exciting to visit these famous football stadiums, just as it should be for rugby. Can’t wait to find out what their Wi-Fi’s like. These are the things that push a sports journo’s buttons. If the Wi-Fi’s good, may even have time at the end to visit a local hostelry or two. MAyl

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