Even Phileas Fogg would have struggled had he been involved in modern-day rugby union. One day Warren Gatland is in London talking up the Lions, the next he is en route to Japan for the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw. Next week he has to be back in Wales, the week after it is Ireland followed by a long wintry trek around New Zealand. If it is Wednesday, it must be Kyoto, in theory at least.
There will be precious little relaxation at 39,000 feet either, if the pool draw takes on a deathly complexion once more. As Gatland observed: “Probably the team you don’t want to get is the All Blacks. Everyone else you wouldn’t mind.” He was smiling when he said it but pretty much every other international head coach below the top four seeds will be thinking likewise.
Even for England, who feature in the top tier alongside New Zealand, Australia and Ireland, the possibility of something very nasty is real. One of Scotland, France, South Africa or Wales will end up in their five-team pool, with Argentina, Japan, Georgia or Italy lurking in the tier below. England, South Africa, Argentina and Fiji in the same pool is one scenario; Scotland or Wales could find themselves in with the All Blacks and the Pumas, who will be no one’s idea of pushovers by 2019.
Eddie Jones, England’s head coach, is not the type to start fretting prematurely but as he has already observed, a World Cup in Japan will be tricky enough logistically without the threat of an early exit hanging over everyone for two long years. Stuart Lancaster’s 2015 squad thought they had every single base covered but nagging anxiety still caught up with them in the end.
If Jones could have his way he would probably choose the enemies about whom, psychologically, he knows virtually everything there is to know. As a technical adviser he played a significant role in South Africa’s successful 2007 World Cup campaign and his achievements with Japan last time around are the stuff of legend. Flip it around and ask which coach the Springboks and the Brave Blossoms would least prefer to pit their wits against? Jones has been around plenty of blocks and, on occasions like this, that has its advantages.
Alternatively the northern and southern hemispheres could find themselves jostling with their geographical neighbours to a greater extent than normal. Three of the four teams in the Rugby Championship could theoretically end up in direct pool opposition along with two of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, with the All Blacks coach, Steve Hansen, among those conducting the draw; similarly five Six Nations teams could be randomly shoehorned into just two pools, with Georgia featuring as well.
Will England and Wales be pitted together again? It could happen, although Gatland hopes not. Wales currently have two provisionally scheduled warm-up games apiece against England and Ireland and would have to amend those plans.
Ireland, for their part, will be having flashbacks to all their uncomfortable meetings with Argentina in past tournaments. It would also render largely irrelevant the decision to hold the draw slightly later than normal (albeit still two years in advance of the event) to try to smooth out form-based kinks. Argentina, France, South Africa, Wales and Scotland could all be dangerous floaters by 2019, whereas no one can currently say with certainty that Australian rugby will be in tip-top shape.
England did not want the Wallabies in their pool two years ago; this time they would have minded far less had it been possible. Jones, typically, has been more preoccupied with the hurdles his squad will have to jump in terms of food, culture, language and training venues. “Everyone thinks Japan’s going to be easy but it’s going to be bloody difficult. It’s important we start to get an understanding of that now.”
It is important, though, not to allow parochial blinkers to cloud the bigger picture. The mere fact the draw (which commences at 9am BST) is taking place in Kyoto’s State Guest House is a landmark for rugby’s growth; for too long there was a reluctance to venture beyond established markets and abandon the reassuringly familiar. Imagine the tournament kicking off on 20 September 2019 with a fixture between Japan and New Zealand in front of a mad-for-it, sold-out local crowd, beamed live to a global audience of millions. An experimental World Cup staged in a sporting and commercial backwater? Hardly.
So good luck to all the frequent fliers and never mind that wet weather forced the tournament organisers to shift the venue for the pre-draw reception. In the land of the sumo wrestler something seriously big has materialised on the horizon and its name is not Bill Beaumont. Regardless of the impending pool outcomes, all connected with rugby are winners this week.
Long haul
Fingers are still being crossed in many parts of the world that World Rugby’s residency qualification is on the verge of being raised from three years to five. The argument against doing so is increasingly hard to justify, particularly for tier one nations with properly-run, amply-invested youth development pathways. The grandparent rule, though, is going nowhere, with the former Wellington Hurricanes full-back Jason Woodward now on England’s radar. According to one reliable southern hemisphere statistician, he would be the 11th native Kiwi to make his debut for England since 2005.
And another thing …
Buried away in the collated stats from this year’s Premiership season is an interesting disciplinary update. In 2013–14 there were 164 yellow cards and 14 reds; this season, despite the high-profile crackdown on high and/or tip tackles, there were a mere 107 yellows and eight reds. A large chunk of the explanation is reflected in the rising number of tries being scored across the competition; the game grows ever quicker and the margins become ever tighter. Coaches want 15 players on the field whenever possible and poor discipline is increasingly unacceptable.
