New name, new format, but the same old problem. In France, England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland, directors of rugby and head coaches, not to mention those backers who have paid good money for success, will be trying to work out how many points is it going to take to get into the knockout stages of Europe.
With the Heineken Cup, it was reckoned that 18 points stood a side in good stead. But what about the Champions Cup and its tougher format? Is 16 the new 18?
If it is, then those who dreamed up the new competition can take a bow. They wanted something fairer, a test of the best, and seem, going into the second half of the pool stages this weekend, to have got it. But not without surprises: how otherwise do you explain Toulouse and Harlequins throwing off iffy form in their domestic leagues by winning their first three games?
At the other end, with one exception, it has been less easy to predict who is going to struggle. So let’s start in Pool 5 where Treviso – the “wrong” Italian side given their pre-season disruptions and departures – are making it easy for two teams to progress. This weekend at Franklin’s Gardens, Northampton should bank another five and with four more coming from their final game at home to Racing Métro that should be 19 points at least and safe passage to a quarter-final, no matter whether they or the Parisians finish top. However, with Ospreys in Paris on Saturday, qualification is there for Racing to throw away.
Pool 4 is much more interesting for the form of Glasgow and the way Gregor Townsend has gone about preparing sides that can produce bespoke victories such as the opening game, where they blew Bath away 37-10. Nor was there any shame in last weekend’s 18-11 loss in Toulouse, where the four-times champions made merry on the back of a yellow that spanned half-time.
Guy Novès’ side have pulled themselves together in Europe but they aren’t the all-consuming outfit that made three straight finals, and defeat at Scotstoun by a team who now know how to diminish the French strengths, could see Glasgow on their way to a quarter-final for the first time since 1998 when things weren’t quite the same. And pool winners to boot.
Bath, Sam Burgess and all, may well get five points at home to Montpellier on Friday, but by losing the first two rounds and then failing to get a bonus in France last Friday they look to have shot themselves in the foot.
So two through from Pools 4 and 5, which means slim picking from the other three groups, difficulties for Leicester who, on Sunday, really got under the skin of Toulon. It was great to see Dan Cole back – it takes a few games for a prop to get going after such a long lay-off and Sunday was really good news for England – and although Leicester were something like the Tigers of old, it’s unlikely to be enough in the Var on Sunday, especially if it’s dry. Then they are struggling and would probably need to beat Ulster away in the final game to have a chance of joining Toulon.
Pool 2 is a surprise because it looked like a cake walk – in as far as Europe can ever be so easily predicted – for Leinster from one of the easier groups. Instead Harlequins, despite stuttering Premiership form which sees them currently ninth, are three from three and Wasps are becoming a handful. Their win in Castres on Sunday brought echoes of the glory days but more importantly probably paved the way for an easier day on Sunday when the French, struggling at the foot of the Top 14 and with the prospect of defections all over the place, have to go back to their default position.
There will be plenty of Wasps cursing at letting the first leg of the “London” derby slip away if they go into the penultimate round at Harlequins on 12 points, especially if Conor O’Shea’s team, minus Chris Robshaw and Nick Evans, come away from Dublin this weekend empty handed.
You fancy Leinster to go through, but is it asking too much for Wasps to leapfrog Harlequins on the final day by beating the champions of 2011 and 2012 to give them their 16 points?
Alas, Saracens in Pool 1 and minus Steve Borthwick don’t look like the side that got to last season’s final, whereas Clermont Auvergne, who suffered in that tournament, seem to have nailed things down. The importance of a win against Munster at Thomond Park should not be lost in the change to a new competition and with two home games and a trip to Sale to come, Clermont look good.
Saracens? It’s home to Sale and although Steve Diamond’s side have been competitive, unlucky even, it’s Munster in north London and then Clermont away that matter and I see Munster the more likely bet to end with 17 points and go through.
