The unofficial 2028 Republican primary has already entered one of its most important rooms: the evangelical movement that helped power President Donald Trump, which is already looking to his potential successor as his second term as president ends.
According to a new POLITICO report, many prominent evangelical leaders see Secretary of State Marco Rubio as holding an early advantage over Vice President JD Vance among conservative Christian voters, even as Vance continues to draw curiosity from younger social conservatives attracted to a more populist vision of the right.
No major candidate has formally announced for 2028. But the early sorting shows how religious conservatives are already thinking about the future of the Republican Party after Trump, and about which figure can best carry forward its agenda.
Rubio's strength, evangelical leaders told the outlet, comes from familiarity. He has spent years cultivating relationships with conservative Christian institutions, speaks openly about his faith, and is widely viewed as someone who can bridge Trump's MAGA coalition with older Reagan-era conservatives.
Al Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, told POLITICO that Rubio has "a great deal of trust and admiration from conservative evangelicals" and is "far better known to American evangelicals than JD Vance."
That early advantage is politically significant because white evangelical Protestants remain one of the GOP's most reliable blocs. Pew Research Center found that 82% of white evangelical Protestant registered voters backed or leaned toward Trump in 2024, a level that underscored their continued importance in Republican politics.
PRRI's analysis of the 2024 election similarly described white evangelicals as the most vital religious constituency in Trump's coalition. Rubio's appeal also rests on biography and style. Though Catholic, he has long been comfortable in evangelical spaces and has attended a Southern Baptist megachurch in Miami.
POLITICO reported that evangelical leaders praised his remarks at Charlie Kirk's memorial service, where he delivered a detailed expression of Christian belief that some leaders saw as unusually direct for a national politician.
Vance's standing is more complicated. Evangelical leaders quoted by POLITICO described him as authentic and intellectually serious, but also less fully known to their voters. His conversion to Catholicism and his emphasis on family and community have made him compelling to younger religious conservatives.
The clearest pressure point is abortion. Vance spoke at the March for Life in January, where he defended anti-abortion policies and emphasized family life. At the event, he urged activists to "take heart in how far we've come" in efforts to restrict abortion.
SBA Pro-Life America praised his remarks but also pushed the "Trump-Vance administration" to act on mifepristone, specifically calling for restored in-person dispensing requirements for the abortion pill.
Israel is another test. POLITICO reported that some evangelicals remain uncertain about Vance's more restrained foreign-policy instincts, while Rubio is seen as less ambiguous on support for Israel. For many conservative evangelicals, that position is not only geopolitical but theological.
Still, Vance has time. His upcoming faith book, Communion, is expected to give him a broader opportunity to define his religious worldview for voters who remain open but not fully convinced.
