Encouraging signs. Gimmers of promises. Green shoots. It is indicative of just how far Manchester United have sunk that the reaction to their 1-0 defeat to Arsenal last Sunday was not shock or scorn or even schadenfreude; it was encouragement. United used to inspire fear in opponents; now they inspire pity.
It is not that there were no reasons for optimism for United. The new forwards who started, Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, looked intermittently dangerous. Mason Mount offered a reminder of his quality and if he can stay fit he could have a major role to play. Patrick Dorgu dominated his flank. Amad Diallo sparkled after coming off the bench. David Raya was forced to make seven saves. Dorgu hit a post. There were plausible claims for a penalty when William Saliba appeared to go through the back of Cunha. Opta’s xG model had United winning 1.5 to 1.3.
Fans looking for crumbs of comfort could have found enough to make a decent meal for a small bird. After months of United being terrible, they looked OK. But they still lost. Already they are three points behind the leaders and, given the context, there is inevitably already pressure. It is probably just as well they face Fulham away on Sunday, because Fulham away is as near to a sure thing as there is for United these days. Not since 2009 have Fulham beaten Manchester United at home. They have managed one draw in the nine games. Craven Cottage is the one ground where United can feel safe, a time capsule in which Alex Ferguson still glowers from the dugout, Roy Keane still dominates the midfield and Ryan Giggs still speeds down the wing.
United need to win. If they do not, Ruben Amorim will be back to having the worst win percentage of any United manager since Herbert Bamlett, whose contract was not renewed after relegation in 1931. In some ways that is a quirk, a freak stat that does not take into account the weirdness of last season. But it is also a reminder of just how bad United have been under Erik ten Hag’s successor. There is no credit in the bank. To believe that Amorim is the right manager for United is an act of faith.
That is not to say that it is misplaced; Amorim looked a very impressive manager at Sporting and he inherited an extremely difficult situation. But it does perhaps explain why there has been such eagerness to magnify the few fragments of optimism from the opening game of the season.
The risk United are taking is enormous. Amorim is a fundamentalist. He will only play one way. 3-4-2-1 is the one true faith and there can be no deviation from that. United’s squad when he arrived was a hodgepodge accumulated over the reigns of six managers, with few common characteristics other than their mutual unfamiliarity with 3-4-2-1. Some will adapt, but many of the playing personnel will have to be replaced, a major overhaul to suit a manager who may by Sunday night have the worst win percentage at the club in almost a century.
Burnley at home a week later offers a further opportunity for United to get points on the board, gain confidence and bolster faith in Amorim before the much more testing business of the Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium, straight after the international break.
Perhaps the £200m attacking combination of Benjamin Sesko, Cunha and Mbeumo can drive United forward. The absence of European football should help. But Sunday also demonstrated United’s many shortcomings.
Neither Altay Bayindir nor André Onana have offered any suggestion they can be a consistent high-level Premier League goalkeeper. United, more generally, have a major problem dealing with inswinging set-plays. If United can ever offload one of the many players they have made clear have no future at the club to create profitability and sustainability regulations headroom, and Gianluigi Donnarumma is available and interested for a knockdown price, he surely must be a priority.
Leny Yoro has shown sufficient promise that it is possible to think he will be the first senior arrival to get definitively better after joining United since Ashley Young and David De Gea signed in the same week in 2011. Cases could be made for Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Dalot, but they have probably done little more than maintain their level – achievement enough in the Old Trafford permacrisis. Nonetheless, it is far from clear who Yoro’s most effective partners are. Matthijs de Ligt has never convinced since leaving Ajax. Lisandro Martínez has been unfortunate with injuries, as has Luke Shaw over a much longer period. Harry Maguire, his demeanour increasingly that of a put-upon husband from an 80s sitcom, is as much an emergency late-game striker these days as a central defender. Ayden Heaven is inexperienced.
Whoever plays in the defensive three is going to struggle given the dearth of options at the back of midfield. Amorim seems convinced by the idea of Fernandes as one of the deep-lying players, but if that is to have a chance of working he needs an aggressive and industrious ball-winner alongside him. Casemiro no longer has the energy, while Manuel Ugarte, who played in a similar role for Sporting, has never come close to adapting to the pace and physicality of the Premier League, his loss of confidence reflected in some bizarre decision-making in the defeat against Arsenal.
But the issue of Amorim’s dogmatism is not just that of the struggle to find players to fit. It is also of the sense of wastage, those players United have who have no obvious role in the 3-4-2-1. Is Amad, with his skittering feet and remarkable left foot, really best served operating as a right-wingback? And what of Kobbie Mainoo, prodigiously gifted, still only 20, a starter for England in the Euros final last summer, but not a natural fit for any role in Amorim’s system?
How much faith do United have in Amorim? Enough to sideline Mainoo’s talents? Enough to carry on the overhaul of the squad to his specifications, even though that could take a further three or four windows? Enough to keep plodding through the wilderness, extolling every wisp of positivity in the belief the promised land will at some point be reached? Enough to survive defeat at Fulham?
