In 2009, Barry Hills was the top trainer at Royal Ascot with three winners. A year later, Richard Hannon Sr took the prize – again, with three winners. For as long as Aidan O’Brien maintains his pre-eminence in European Flat racing, however, those days are surely gone, and while the man himself would never suggest it, a three-winner return this coming week would be disappointing given the strength of his squad.
There are seven handicaps on the 30-race programme at Royal Ascot and in the betting for the 23 non-handicaps, O’Brien has the current favourite for six, including four of the eight Group One events. He will saddle the second- or third-favourite for several more, and a very good week for O’Brien and Ryan Moore, his principal jockey, will be a painful one for the bookmakers.
What they fear most is a clean sweep for O’Brien’s four Group One favourites but the fact that the four-timer is priced up at around 10-1 is a reminder that chance is always on the bookies’ side. At least one of the four is likely to come up short, and one is all the layers need.
It is difficult to see it being Winter, whose two Classic wins already this year have not offered up any weaknesses for rivals to exploit in Friday’s Coronation Stakes. Order Of St George will also need to run well below form to miss out on a second success in Thursday’s Gold Cup.
But Caravaggio, in the Commonwealth Cup on Friday, and Churchill, in Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes, could prove to be the weaker links. Caravaggio was deeply impressive in last year’s Coventry Stakes but he is in the hottest race of the week and faces two opponents in Blue Point and Harry Angel with form in the book that could be good enough. Harry Angel in particular has plenty in his favour, including a course-record time on his latest start, and is too big at 7-2.
Churchill will be one of the strongest favourites of the week, but the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket was a race that was in O’Brien’s grip from the start, as two of the winner’s stable companions dictated the pace. Events unfolded around Barney Roy, who was hampered and then became unbalanced with just over a furlong to run, but he was still just a length behind Churchill at the line. He is an excellent bet at around 9-4 to reverse the form.
Wesley Ward, the American trainer whose big, muscular juveniles have become a feature of the meeting in recent years, fields what he feels is his strongest team yet with 10 runners expected to go to post next week.
YouTube videos are all British punters have to go on when it comes to Ward’s juvenile runners but Arawak looked particularly strong when exercising on the track earlier his week and could be worth backing at around 6-1 in the Coventry Stakes. Ward’s Lady Aurelia, who blew the field away in the Queen Mary last year, will take some stopping in the King’s Stand Stakes on Tuesday, while George William has often threatened to land a valuable handicap and may finally do so in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup.
Day-by-day picks
Tuesday Lady Aurelia (King’s Stand Stakes), Arawak (Coventry Stakes), Barney Roy (St James’s Palace Stakes), Penhill (Ascot Stakes). Wednesday Dream Castle (Jersey Stakes), George William (Royal Hunt Cup). Thursday Order Of St George (Gold Cup) Friday Harry Angel (Commonwealth Cup). Saturday Projection (Wokingham Handicap).
